Impacts of Corridor- vs. Transit Area-based Upzoning on Housing and Transit Ridership

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

October 1, 2025 - September 30, 2026

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Aaron Barrall, Shane Phillips, Alexander Nelms

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

California’s housing affordability and transit ridership crises are heavily influenced by how cities zone for new development. Cities often face a choice between targeted corridor-based upzoning, which allows more housing along main roads, and more expansive area-based upzoning, which opens surrounding neighborhoods to growth. This project compares how these approaches affect housing supply, affordability, and transit ridership in several California metro areas. Using detailed zoning and land use data, it will estimate where new housing is most likely to be built and its potential to support equitable transit access, housing affordability, and walkable communities.

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policy brief

Wildfire Recovery and Resilience Strategies for Resource-Constrained and Vulnerable Communities

Abstract

Wildfires disproportionately impact vulnerable communities, such as low-income families, older adults, people with disabilities, and rural residents. Wildfires not only cause direct destruction, but also intensify existing social inequities (Davies et al., 2018). The primary challenges these groups face lie in inadequate transportation resources to carry out evacuations, non-resilient infrastructure, and inequitable allocations of recovery resources. This brief synthesizes news reports, academic research, and practical case studies and recommends three priority strategies to support efforts to recover from the recent wildfires in Los Angeles County: 1) developing an inclusive evacuation system, 2) allocating resources for community recovery in a fair and equitable manner, and 3) building resilient community transportation systems for the future. These strategies can reduce social inequalities in disaster response and recovery.

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policy brief

Will California Lose Thousands of Affordable Homes Near Transit?

Abstract

California faces the loss of thousands of affordable rental units in the coming decade as affordability restrictions— known as covenants—expire. These agreements, signed between housing developers and government agencies, typically last 15 to 30 years and require that units be rented at below-market rates. When covenants expire, owners can convert units to market-rate housing, often displacing lower-income families.

In Southern California alone, over 17,000 affordable units are at risk of conversion, and nearly 70% of these units are located near high-quality transit. If the owners of these properties do not enter into new covenants, these units will be placed on the open market, likely leading to the displacement of lower-income residents to the urban outskirts, resulting in longer commutes and reduced access to reliable transit. To better understand the risk of losing affordable units, this brief analyzed historic data on affordable housing conversion and identified key factors that influence whether at-risk properties are preserved or lost.

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policy brief

Overcoming Barriers to Transit-Oriented Development: Considering State, Regional, and Local Roles

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Author(s)

Elisa Barbour, Lev Gordon-Feierabend, Francois Kaeppelin

Abstract

Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a strategy that promotes building housing, shops, offices, and other destinations near public transit stations. TOD is compact and walkable, supports public transit use, reduces car dependency, and can help lower greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing the number of miles people drive. California has adopted many policies in recent years– at the state, regional, and local levels– to encourage TOD as part of its broader climate and housing goals. At the same time, the state faces a housing affordability crisis. In the past seven years, state lawmakers have passed more than 100 bills aimed at increasing housing production, particularly in areas near public transit.

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research report

Overcoming Barriers to Transit-Oriented Development: Considering State, Regional, and Local Roles

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Author(s)

Elisa Barbour, Lev Gordon-Feierabend, Francois Kaeppelin

Abstract

This report considers motivations, obstacles, and policies and programs adopted at the state, regional, and local levels in California to support transit-oriented development (TOD). Regulatory policies adopted by the state in recent years to induce TOD are discussed, as well as state-led and regionally-managed funding programs. Findings are presented from two on-line surveys of local planning directors, and 51 interviews with regional and local planners. The findings point to multiple obstacles to achieving TOD, including market factors, resident opposition, and lack of sufficient funding for implementation, such as for necessary infrastructure to support new development. The most commonly adopted local policies to support TOD include streamlining of environmental review requirements, mixed-use zoning and upzoning (permitting higher densities), improving bike and pedestrian facilities, development of Specific Plans for neighborhoods, and mechanisms to ease accessory dwelling units (ADUs). The survey findings indicate that policies and programs initiated from multiple levels of government are deemed effective for inducing TOD. A recent one-off TOD-supportive funding program that was managed regionally, called the Regional Earley Action Program (REAP), is found to be rated as very valuable both by regional and local planners, leading to the recommendation that this program be instated on an ongoing basis with dedicated funding. The report also concludes that policies deemed effective for inducing TOD, especially funding affordable housing and addressing the nexus of zoning, CEQA streamlining for infill, permit streamlining through ministerial review, and support for Specific Plans, should continue to receive policy support from the state legislature and regional agencies.

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research report

Impacts of LA Metro’s K-14 Fareless Transit Initiative on Youth Travel Behavior

Abstract

In October 2021, the Los Angeles Count Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro), in collaboration with other regional transit operators and multiple school districts across the county, launched the GoPass pilot program to offer free transit passes to K-14 students, which became permanent in early 2024. Students in a high school district in the Greater Los Angeles area were surveyed to determine the reasons students decided to participate in GoPass and how the students subjectively valued their travel preference. Students were less likely to participate in the GoPass program if they had the use of a car for trips to school but more likely if they had the option to take transit for trips leaving school. Student demographics did not play a large role in whether they participated in GoPass. Students highly value cars and trip amenities, such as onboard Wi-Fi. They subjectively value reduced travel time at $71/hour, similar to other studies among adults, but valued reduced waiting time at $98/hour, again consistent with other studies that find a high relative value for shorter waiting time. Students are not likely to be persuaded to take transit merely by making it free. Instead, school districts may consider increasing the cost for campus parking permits and reducing the number of campus parking spaces to encourage greater use of transit and shared travel modes.

Summary of Interviews with California Metropolitan Planning Organizations About Senate Bill 375 and the Sustainable Communities Strategies

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2019 - October 1, 2020

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley

Project Summary

In July and August of 2020, a research team of four graduate students from UC Berkeley’s Department of City and Regional Planning conducted interviews with directors and other high-level staff representing several of California’s metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to gather information on the achievements and challenges associated with the implementation of SB 375. Key takeaways from this effort include: 1) MPOs are not requesting additional authorities or oversight of local land use decisions; 2) MPOs use funding as “carrots” to incentivize local plans to align with regional goals, and many MPOs desire more discretionary funding and priority-specific funding; 3) some MPOs want to focus on greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies, such as telecommuting, active transportation, and technological advancement, in order to meet their GHG emission targets; 4) MPOs want the State to develop policies in ways that acknowledge distinct planning nuances and economic and geographic contexts across regions; 5) the process of developing and submitting regional plans to the State for review is staff-intensive and technically complex for MPOs, which takes away from the agencies’ capacity to focus on implementation and other work; 6) Senate Bill 375 has empowered MPOs to consider more deeply the relationship between land use and transportation; and 7) as a result of Senate Bill 375, there is now increased communication and engagement between the MPO and a broader set of stakeholders.

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policy brief

Driving Grid Readiness: Integrating Electric Vehicles into California’s Energy System

Abstract

As of 2024, more than 1.8 million electric vehicles (EVs) were on the road in California. The state had aimed to reach five million EVs by 2030 and require 100% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2035 through its Zero-Emission Vehicle rule; however, federal action has put this plan on hold, and California is challenging this action in court. Regardless, rapid growth in EV adoption will put new demands on California’s electricity system, requiring significant investments in both the power distribution grid and EV charging infrastructure.

Meanwhile, utilities may already be grappling with the challenges of accommodating the growing power demands from new data center facilities that support artificial intelligence. Without adequate proactive investments in distribution grid upgrades and consumer programs to manage demand, the added load from widespread EV charging (with larger, more power-hungry batteries) could potentially overload local grids, compromise reliability, degrade the quality of transformers and distribution systems and increase costs to both utility providers and ultimately ratepayers.

California utilities and policymakers must ensure that the distribution grid is prepared for this new load, while maintaining reliable electricity service and keeping costs low for ratepayers. As the EV market evolves, the distribution grid must rapidly grow into a smarter, more flexible, and more agile system. With well-designed charging programs and new technologies, additional EV charging capacity holds the promise of creating downward pressure on electricity rates. Advances in technology can support this promise through greater vehicle-to-grid integration (VGI) (i.e., strategies for altering EV charging time, power level, or location of charging (or discharging) to benefit the grid), managed charging programs, and other tools to further merge EVs into California’s grid. VGI turns EVs into interactive grid resources, enabling not only new methods to manage consumer demand but also bi-directional charging (known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G)) that can enhance grid flexibility and reliability. Investing now to modernize the grid and adopting new demand management programs can pay dividends in the future, supporting California’s ambitious EV deployment goals while keeping electricity rates affordable.

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preprint journal article

Novel Methodology to Identify Factors Causing Heterogeneity in Travel Demand during and after the Pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the transportation sector, altering travel demand patterns and posing challenges for local systems. Evidence of spatial heterogeneity underscores the necessity for a comprehensive understanding of these disruptions. Origin–destination (OD) matrices are generally used to compare travel patterns. Direct observations like smartphone data to construct OD matrices may limit causality in trip distribution, emphasizing the need for a methodology enabling comparison of travel patterns and exploration of factors contributing to this heterogeneity. To this end, this study develops a novel two-phase methodology. The first phase involved capturing heterogeneity in the weekly progression of zonal trip-generation patterns (via structural similarity of OD matrices) and then clustering them together based on similarity. The second phase involved examining the factors influencing cluster membership of zones. We demonstrated the proof-of-concept using two case studies: home-based work trips on weekdays and home-based other trips on weekends. The case studies focused on the Northern California Megaregion. The data used in the first phase include passively collected mobile phone data. The second phase used data on explanatory variables (e.g., mean household income, employment density, the share of white- and blue-collar workers and half-mile transit accessibility) for the multinomial logit model. This additional data to augment the data set is sourced from American Community Survey five-year estimates and the US Environmental Protection Agency. This study uniquely applies a novel methodology to two case studies, showcasing how insights into factors driving travel pattern changes can assist local and regional policymakers in optimizing resource allocation, particularly for public transportation.

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policy brief

How California Cities Respond to State-level Parking Reform

Abstract

Minimum parking requirements—zoning regulations that require a certain number of parking spaces to be built with new developments—come with a long list of downsides. The requirements increase the costs of development, reduce housing densities, subsidize car ownership, reduce walkability, and make it difficult to adapt and reuse historic buildings. In response, cities as diverse as Anchorage, Buffalo, and San Diego have reduced or eliminated parking requirements in recent years.

In 2022, California became the first state to eliminate parking requirements in certain neighborhoods. Assembly Bill 2097 (AB 2097) prohibits, in most circumstances, local governments from imposing parking requirements within a half-mile of an existing or planned major transit stop such as a rail station, ferry terminal, or the intersection of frequent bus routes. The research team examined how cities are responding to this new statewide law and draw out lessons for parking policy as well as other types of state preemption of local land use regulations.