Long Distance Travel and Destination Attractiveness

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2016 - July 31, 2017

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Santa Barbara

Project Summary

This report provides a summary of analyses using data from long-distance tours by each household from an 8-week California Household Travel Survey travel log. The first analysis uses Structural Equations Models (SEM) and a simpler variant called Path Analysis on three censored variables (tour miles by air, miles driving, and miles by public transportation) and two categorical variables (main trip tour purpose) and number of overnight stays. The second analysis uses Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCCA) to identify five distinct, informative patterns of long-distance travel. This analysis shows that long-distance tours for vacation, business travel, medical, and shopping are substantially distinct in terms of their travel characteristics and correspond to different combinations of other activities in the tour and they are done by different types of households. The methods used here to identify the typology of long-distance travel can be easily expanded to include a variety of other explanatory variables of this type of behavior in more focused data collection settings.

policy brief

Investigating Unmet and Difficult Travel in Underserved Communities in California

Abstract

Residents of disadvantaged, low-income, rural, and tribal communities—collectively referred to as underserved communities—often face transportation barriers resulting from decades of car-oriented planning. This has left lower-cost modes such as public transit, walking, and cycling unsafe or unavailable, resulting in widespread travel difficulties and unmet mobility needs that are challenging to measure. To understand how people are navigating these challenges, the research team surveyed 2,892 residents from underserved communities in California. Centering the experiences of people often underrepresented in travel behavior surveys, this study provides insights into the main factors linked to difficult or unmet travel, how people adapt to these challenges, and the barriers they face. The findings provide evidence to inform the design of equitable transportation solutions that can improve mobility and access for California’s Priority Populations—groups that are State priorities for investments in improving health, air quality, and access to economic opportunities.

policy brief

Decarbonizing Heavy-Duty Transportation Modes with Electricity, Biofuels, and Hydrogen

Abstract

Heavy-duty transportation modes including trucks, buses, and seaport and airport equipment are relatively hard to decarbonize because of their demanding performance requirements and other factors. The California Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality calls for carbon-neutral transportation across all modes by 2045, with different sectors reaching 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by earlier dates, depending on the type of vehicle. Creative strategies are needed to help incentivize fleets to adopt the lowest emission truck, bus, and other equipment technologies, given their relatively higher capital and fuel costs. These policies might include offering enhanced incentives through the state Heavy-Duty Vehicle Incentive Program, truck “feebates,” adopting indirect-source rules that target high-traffic areas with the most pollutant generation and impact, and others. Recent research at the UC ITS highlights key issues and concerns and offers insights into the potential near- and longer-term solutions to address GHG and other pollutant emissions from these important sectors.

policy brief

How Did Travel Change after COVID-19? Insights from Northern California Megaregion

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic greatly changed how people live, work, and travel. These changes influenced travel habits, public transit use, and transportation funding across regions. However, these effects were not the same everywhere; some areas faced major, lasting disruptions, while others experienced smaller impacts and recovered faster. Recognizing these differences is crucial for transportation agencies and policymakers as they prepare for future uncertainties and limited resources. In a large and diverse region like the Northern California Megaregion, with about 13 million people, understanding how and why travel patterns shifted among different communities can help improve long-term planning and system resilience.

The Impacts of Infill Rail Transit Stations: Implications for the Shinn Station Proposal

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2017 - July 13, 2018

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

Infill rail transit stations are added along an already built line or set of lines between existing stations. Such stations are relatively low cost because they take advantage of existing lines and services. They can support additional ridership in the short term by increasing station accessibility and also may support growth in the form of added economic activity, infill development, or redevelopment and revitalization, further increasing accessibility and ridership. In turn, growing ridership may support higher levels of service (larger trainsets, more frequent service) on the lines served. Existing activity centers and neighborhoods may be strengthened by the increased accessibility an infill station provides. New housing and economic development opportunities around infill stations can be substantial if the station location is well chosen, local government policies and community members support growth, and existing owners can expand or developers can secure suitable sites for new construction. On the other hand, economic opportunities can be limited if there is community opposition to growth, local policies are impediments, or there is limited interest in investing in the area from the business and development community. Unwanted neighborhood changes including displacement due to rising property values may be an issue. Transportation level of service plays a role; lines with limited service will offer lower development potential than lines with high levels of service. Also, because adding a station involves added deceleration, dwell time, and acceleration time to existing trips, there is a small negative impact on existing riders due to the added stop. For this project, researchers will examine the costs and benefits of infill transit stations. The team considers transport capital, operating, and maintenance costs, costs to existing riders of additional trip duration due to added stop(s), and benefits to existing and new riders of improved accessibility (reduced travel time and costs) from both origins and to destinations. This project further considers economic development potential and social environmental impacts of infill stations. Researchers present evidence drawn primarily from U.S. experience with infill transit stations in the Boston, Chicago, Washington, and San Francisco Bay Area metropolitan areas. Finally, the research team applies the evidence to assess the potential cost and benefits of an infill station in the Shinn Station area in the East Bay near the Union City and Fremont, CA, border, linking Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) and Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) services.

Implementing SB 743: An Analysis of Vehicle Miles Traveled Banking and Exchange Frameworks

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2017 - July 13, 2018

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley

Project Summary

In implementing Senate Bill 743, developers of proposed projects – such as real estate or transportation infrastructure – will need to change how they analyze the project’s potential impacts on transportation under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). CEQA requires lead agencies to analyze project impacts in advance and mitigate significant ones where feasible. To date, transportation impacts have been measured by a project’s effect on automobile “level of service” in the immediate vicinity. But recent legal and proposed regulatory changes in California now require a shift to analyzing a proposed project’s impact on regional vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In some cases, on-site mitigation of VMT impacts may be straightforward. But in other cases, cities, counties or regions may want to develop regional strategies to mitigate VMT using off-site, VMT-reducing projects, facilitated by VMT “mitigation banks.” This project will conduct a legal analysis to assess the prospects under existing state law for establishment of local or regional VMT mitigation strategies, including VMT mitigation banks. These mitigation structures and strategies could allow project developers to support off- site, but regionally beneficial, VMT-reducing projects as a means to mitigate impacts. The research could also include recommendations for new regulations or legislation to implement or improve VMT mitigation strategies.

policy brief

California’s SB 375 Falls Short in Streamlining Transit-Oriented Development, But this Could be Fixed

Publication Date

April 6, 2026

Author(s)

Jamey Volker, Bailey Affolter, Nicholas Marantz, Susie Pike, Graham DeLeon

Abstract

The California Environmental Quality Act is designed to ensure consideration of environmental impacts of new development projects, but it can also invite litigation that can delay or derail projects, even those that may benefit the environment, such as transit oriented development (TOD). TOD aims to reduce vehicle miles traveled and greenhouse gas emissions by locating housing, jobs, and amenities near high-frequency public transit. But when CEQA requirements delay or discourage TOD, the result can be to push development to less accessible areas, leading to more driving, more emissions, and fewer housing options— undermining the very goals CEQA was meant to protect. In 2008, California passed SB 375, which included two CEQA streamlining provisions for TOD projects that meet specific criteria. This project investigated how much and where these provisions have been used. The research team also interviewed practitioners to assess how effective the provisions have been when used, and how streamlining could be improved to better facilitate TOD projects.

Impacts of Corridor- vs. Transit Area-based Upzoning on Housing and Transit Ridership

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

October 1, 2025 - September 30, 2026

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Aaron Barrall, Shane Phillips, Alexander Nelms

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

California’s housing affordability and transit ridership crises are heavily influenced by how cities zone for new development. Cities often face a choice between targeted corridor-based upzoning, which allows more housing along main roads, and more expansive area-based upzoning, which opens surrounding neighborhoods to growth. This project compares how these approaches affect housing supply, affordability, and transit ridership in several California metro areas. Using detailed zoning and land use data, it will estimate where new housing is most likely to be built and its potential to support equitable transit access, housing affordability, and walkable communities.

policy brief

Wildfire Recovery and Resilience Strategies for Resource-Constrained and Vulnerable Communities

Abstract

Wildfires disproportionately impact vulnerable communities, such as low-income families, older adults, people with disabilities, and rural residents. Wildfires not only cause direct destruction, but also intensify existing social inequities (Davies et al., 2018). The primary challenges these groups face lie in inadequate transportation resources to carry out evacuations, non-resilient infrastructure, and inequitable allocations of recovery resources. This brief synthesizes news reports, academic research, and practical case studies and recommends three priority strategies to support efforts to recover from the recent wildfires in Los Angeles County: 1) developing an inclusive evacuation system, 2) allocating resources for community recovery in a fair and equitable manner, and 3) building resilient community transportation systems for the future. These strategies can reduce social inequalities in disaster response and recovery.

policy brief

Will California Lose Thousands of Affordable Homes Near Transit?

Abstract

California faces the loss of thousands of affordable rental units in the coming decade as affordability restrictions— known as covenants—expire. These agreements, signed between housing developers and government agencies, typically last 15 to 30 years and require that units be rented at below-market rates. When covenants expire, owners can convert units to market-rate housing, often displacing lower-income families.

In Southern California alone, over 17,000 affordable units are at risk of conversion, and nearly 70% of these units are located near high-quality transit. If the owners of these properties do not enter into new covenants, these units will be placed on the open market, likely leading to the displacement of lower-income residents to the urban outskirts, resulting in longer commutes and reduced access to reliable transit. To better understand the risk of losing affordable units, this brief analyzed historic data on affordable housing conversion and identified key factors that influence whether at-risk properties are preserved or lost.