Evaluating Policies and Trends for Sustaining Light-Duty ZEV Adoption in California
Overview
California’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) transition faces mounting pressure from recent federal rollbacks — including elimination of the federal ZEV tax credit, nullification of California’s key ZEV regulations, and uncertainty around charging infrastructure funding — compounded by major legacy OEM pullbacks from EV production commitments.
To help California navigate this uncertainty, UC ITS researchers will use advanced modeling tools to assess how economic conditions, sociodemographic trends, market dynamics and state policy interventions influence vehicle ownership and fleet turnover across both new and used EV markets. The research will evaluate the effectiveness of monetary and non-monetary incentives, charging infrastructure investments, and other policy strategies in sustaining California’s momentum toward its 100 percent ZEV goal reaffirmed in Executive Order N-27-25. Particular attention will be given to equity and affordability, including how policy designs differentially affect lower-income households, disadvantaged communities, and buyers in the secondary vehicle market. Findings will provide actionable guidance to help state policymakers target limited resources effectively while advancing climate goals and supporting a more accessible and affordable clean transportation transition.
The research will investigate:
Which state-level incentives and policies most effectively motivate adoption in new and used vehicle markets?
How do affordability, charging access, energy prices, and regional differences shape outcomes?
How can limited state funds be deployed equitably and efficiently?
Key Research Activities
Assess California’s ZEV policy options under changing federal conditions. Review existing and emerging state, federal, and local policies; evaluate the implications of federal regulatory and funding changes; and identify policy tools that can help California sustain progress toward its zero-emission vehicle goals.
Analyze electric vehicle supply, market trends, and automaker strategies. Examine how automaker production decisions, vehicle availability, pricing, and supply constraints influence EV adoption in California, including how limited vehicle supply is allocated across states and market segments.
Evaluate incentives, charging access, and equity outcomes. Assess the effectiveness of monetary and non-monetary incentives, charging infrastructure investments, and California’s Driving Clean Assistance Program, with particular attention to affordability, geographic access, and impacts across different communities and income groups.
Enhance vehicle market forecasting tools. Improve existing forecasting models used by state agencies by incorporating home charging access, vehicle replacement behavior, vehicle flows, and interactions between new and used vehicle markets to better capture how supply and demand shape EV adoption.
Develop and evaluate future policy scenarios. Use advanced modeling to test how different combinations of incentives, charging investments, and market interventions affect vehicle adoption, affordability, equity, and progress toward California’s long-term transportation electrification goals.
Initiative Leadership
Research Lead
Gil Tal
Director, Electric Vehicle Research Center, UC Davis
Policy Analyst
Ethan Elkind
Director of the Climate Program at CLEE, UC Berkeley
Research Team Members
David Brownstone
Professor Emeritus of Economics, UC Irvine
David Bunch
Professor Emeritus, Graduate School of Management, UC Davis
Jiawei Chen
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, UC Irvine
Rachel Connoly
Project Director, Luskin Center for Innovation, UCLA
Matthew Favetti
Programmer, Electric Vehicle Research Center, UC Davis
Dahlia Garas
Program Manager, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis
Scott Hardman
Associate Research Faculty & Assistant Director, Electric Vehicle Research Center, UC Davis
Jae Hyun Lee
Visiting Scholar, EV Research Center, UC Davis
Gregory Pierce
Senior Director, Luskin Center for Innovation, UCLA
Aaron Rabinowitz
Postdoctoral Researcher, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis
Aviv Steren
Postdoctoral Researcher, Electric Vehicle Research Center, UC Davis
Qiao Yu
Postdoctoral Scholar, Environmental Health Sciences Department, UCLA
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