The Impacts of Infill Rail Transit Stations: Implications for the Shinn Station Proposal

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2017 - July 13, 2018

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

Infill rail transit stations are added along an already built line or set of lines between existing stations. Such stations are relatively low cost because they take advantage of existing lines and services. They can support additional ridership in the short term by increasing station accessibility and also may support growth in the form of added economic activity, infill development, or redevelopment and revitalization, further increasing accessibility and ridership. In turn, growing ridership may support higher levels of service (larger trainsets, more frequent service) on the lines served. Existing activity centers and neighborhoods may be strengthened by the increased accessibility an infill station provides. New housing and economic development opportunities around infill stations can be substantial if the station location is well chosen, local government policies and community members support growth, and existing owners can expand or developers can secure suitable sites for new construction. On the other hand, economic opportunities can be limited if there is community opposition to growth, local policies are impediments, or there is limited interest in investing in the area from the business and development community. Unwanted neighborhood changes including displacement due to rising property values may be an issue. Transportation level of service plays a role; lines with limited service will offer lower development potential than lines with high levels of service. Also, because adding a station involves added deceleration, dwell time, and acceleration time to existing trips, there is a small negative impact on existing riders due to the added stop. For this project, researchers will examine the costs and benefits of infill transit stations. The team considers transport capital, operating, and maintenance costs, costs to existing riders of additional trip duration due to added stop(s), and benefits to existing and new riders of improved accessibility (reduced travel time and costs) from both origins and to destinations. This project further considers economic development potential and social environmental impacts of infill stations. Researchers present evidence drawn primarily from U.S. experience with infill transit stations in the Boston, Chicago, Washington, and San Francisco Bay Area metropolitan areas. Finally, the research team applies the evidence to assess the potential cost and benefits of an infill station in the Shinn Station area in the East Bay near the Union City and Fremont, CA, border, linking Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) and Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) services.

Implementing SB 743: An Analysis of Vehicle Miles Traveled Banking and Exchange Frameworks

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2017 - July 13, 2018

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley

Project Summary

In implementing Senate Bill 743, developers of proposed projects – such as real estate or transportation infrastructure – will need to change how they analyze the project’s potential impacts on transportation under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). CEQA requires lead agencies to analyze project impacts in advance and mitigate significant ones where feasible. To date, transportation impacts have been measured by a project’s effect on automobile “level of service” in the immediate vicinity. But recent legal and proposed regulatory changes in California now require a shift to analyzing a proposed project’s impact on regional vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In some cases, on-site mitigation of VMT impacts may be straightforward. But in other cases, cities, counties or regions may want to develop regional strategies to mitigate VMT using off-site, VMT-reducing projects, facilitated by VMT “mitigation banks.” This project will conduct a legal analysis to assess the prospects under existing state law for establishment of local or regional VMT mitigation strategies, including VMT mitigation banks. These mitigation structures and strategies could allow project developers to support off- site, but regionally beneficial, VMT-reducing projects as a means to mitigate impacts. The research could also include recommendations for new regulations or legislation to implement or improve VMT mitigation strategies.

Delayed Mobility and Retirement

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2017 - July 13, 2018

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Martin Wachs

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

The population of California is aging as life expectancy increases and birth rates decline. Projections from the U.S. Census Bureau show that by 2030, the number of seniors in California will increase to 10.6 million, almost a quarter of the state population. Closely related, but far less studied, is the aging of the workforce as the population ages and many older people delay retirement either because they enjoy working or depend upon earned income to meet their needs. From a recent low of less than 6 percent of the working population, the share of employed Americans who are older than age 60 has climbed to over 10 percent of all workers and is projected to exceed 13 percent of the employed population by the middle of the next decade. The objective of this study is to determine, using data from the California Household Travel Survey, whether there is a relationship in California between mobility (e.g. access to an automobile, the physical ability to drive, living in transit-accessible locations or proximate to business centers, and working from home) and delayed retirement. Delayed retirement will be measured as those who remain in the paid workforce past age 60. Specific research questions that will be explored include: Are the elderly who continue to work those living closer to jobs and transit routes and are they more able to drive or travel by public transit than those who have retired? Longitudinal trends will be examined using one earlier CHTS. While important statistical associations are expected to emerge from this analysis, they will not tell the whole story because it is difficult to disentangle cause from effect. Do people continue to drive or live near transit so that they can go to work or do they continue to go to work because they are able to drive or use public transit? To explore subtle causal relationships, the research team also will conduct interviews of older workers and recent retirees. The interviews will enable researchers to complement the statistical findings with insights from qualitative descriptions of personal decision making about work, residence, and commuting. The results of the qualitative analysis will allow useful interpretations of and lend confidence to the results of the quantitative analysis.

policy brief

California’s SB 375 Falls Short in Streamlining Transit-Oriented Development, But this Could be Fixed

Publication Date

April 6, 2026

Author(s)

Jamey Volker, Bailey Affolter, Nicholas Marantz, Susan Pike, Graham DeLeon

Abstract

The California Environmental Quality Act is designed to ensure consideration of environmental impacts of new development projects, but it can also invite litigation that can delay or derail projects, even those that may benefit the environment, such as transit oriented development (TOD). TOD aims to reduce vehicle miles traveled and greenhouse gas emissions by locating housing, jobs, and amenities near high-frequency public transit. But when CEQA requirements delay or discourage TOD, the result can be to push development to less accessible areas, leading to more driving, more emissions, and fewer housing options— undermining the very goals CEQA was meant to protect. In 2008, California passed SB 375, which included two CEQA streamlining provisions for TOD projects that meet specific criteria. This project investigated how much and where these provisions have been used. The research team also interviewed practitioners to assess how effective the provisions have been when used, and how streamlining could be improved to better facilitate TOD projects.

Impacts of Corridor- vs. Transit Area-based Upzoning on Housing and Transit Ridership

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

October 1, 2025 - September 30, 2026

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Aaron Barrall, Shane Phillips, Alexander Nelms

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

California’s housing affordability and transit ridership crises are heavily influenced by how cities zone for new development. Cities often face a choice between targeted corridor-based upzoning, which allows more housing along main roads, and more expansive area-based upzoning, which opens surrounding neighborhoods to growth. This project compares how these approaches affect housing supply, affordability, and transit ridership in several California metro areas. Using detailed zoning and land use data, it will estimate where new housing is most likely to be built and its potential to support equitable transit access, housing affordability, and walkable communities.

policy brief

Wildfire Recovery and Resilience Strategies for Resource-Constrained and Vulnerable Communities

Abstract

Wildfires disproportionately impact vulnerable communities, such as low-income families, older adults, people with disabilities, and rural residents. Wildfires not only cause direct destruction, but also intensify existing social inequities (Davies et al., 2018). The primary challenges these groups face lie in inadequate transportation resources to carry out evacuations, non-resilient infrastructure, and inequitable allocations of recovery resources. This brief synthesizes news reports, academic research, and practical case studies and recommends three priority strategies to support efforts to recover from the recent wildfires in Los Angeles County: 1) developing an inclusive evacuation system, 2) allocating resources for community recovery in a fair and equitable manner, and 3) building resilient community transportation systems for the future. These strategies can reduce social inequalities in disaster response and recovery.

policy brief

Will California Lose Thousands of Affordable Homes Near Transit?

Abstract

California faces the loss of thousands of affordable rental units in the coming decade as affordability restrictions— known as covenants—expire. These agreements, signed between housing developers and government agencies, typically last 15 to 30 years and require that units be rented at below-market rates. When covenants expire, owners can convert units to market-rate housing, often displacing lower-income families.

In Southern California alone, over 17,000 affordable units are at risk of conversion, and nearly 70% of these units are located near high-quality transit. If the owners of these properties do not enter into new covenants, these units will be placed on the open market, likely leading to the displacement of lower-income residents to the urban outskirts, resulting in longer commutes and reduced access to reliable transit. To better understand the risk of losing affordable units, this brief analyzed historic data on affordable housing conversion and identified key factors that influence whether at-risk properties are preserved or lost.

policy brief

Overcoming Barriers to Transit-Oriented Development: Considering State, Regional, and Local Roles

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Author(s)

Elisa Barbour, Lev Gordon-Feierabend, Francois Kaeppelin

Abstract

Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a strategy that promotes building housing, shops, offices, and other destinations near public transit stations. TOD is compact and walkable, supports public transit use, reduces car dependency, and can help lower greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing the number of miles people drive. California has adopted many policies in recent years– at the state, regional, and local levels– to encourage TOD as part of its broader climate and housing goals. At the same time, the state faces a housing affordability crisis. In the past seven years, state lawmakers have passed more than 100 bills aimed at increasing housing production, particularly in areas near public transit.

research report

Overcoming Barriers to Transit-Oriented Development: Considering State, Regional, and Local Roles

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Author(s)

Elisa Barbour, Lev Gordon-Feierabend, Francois Kaeppelin

Abstract

This report considers motivations, obstacles, and policies and programs adopted at the state, regional, and local levels in California to support transit-oriented development (TOD). Regulatory policies adopted by the state in recent years to induce TOD are discussed, as well as state-led and regionally-managed funding programs. Findings are presented from two on-line surveys of local planning directors, and 51 interviews with regional and local planners. The findings point to multiple obstacles to achieving TOD, including market factors, resident opposition, and lack of sufficient funding for implementation, such as for necessary infrastructure to support new development. The most commonly adopted local policies to support TOD include streamlining of environmental review requirements, mixed-use zoning and upzoning (permitting higher densities), improving bike and pedestrian facilities, development of Specific Plans for neighborhoods, and mechanisms to ease accessory dwelling units (ADUs). The survey findings indicate that policies and programs initiated from multiple levels of government are deemed effective for inducing TOD. A recent one-off TOD-supportive funding program that was managed regionally, called the Regional Earley Action Program (REAP), is found to be rated as very valuable both by regional and local planners, leading to the recommendation that this program be instated on an ongoing basis with dedicated funding. The report also concludes that policies deemed effective for inducing TOD, especially funding affordable housing and addressing the nexus of zoning, CEQA streamlining for infill, permit streamlining through ministerial review, and support for Specific Plans, should continue to receive policy support from the state legislature and regional agencies.

research report

Impacts of LA Metro’s K-14 Fareless Transit Initiative on Youth Travel Behavior

Abstract

In October 2021, the Los Angeles Count Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro), in collaboration with other regional transit operators and multiple school districts across the county, launched the GoPass pilot program to offer free transit passes to K-14 students, which became permanent in early 2024. Students in a high school district in the Greater Los Angeles area were surveyed to determine the reasons students decided to participate in GoPass and how the students subjectively valued their travel preference. Students were less likely to participate in the GoPass program if they had the use of a car for trips to school but more likely if they had the option to take transit for trips leaving school. Student demographics did not play a large role in whether they participated in GoPass. Students highly value cars and trip amenities, such as onboard Wi-Fi. They subjectively value reduced travel time at $71/hour, similar to other studies among adults, but valued reduced waiting time at $98/hour, again consistent with other studies that find a high relative value for shorter waiting time. Students are not likely to be persuaded to take transit merely by making it free. Instead, school districts may consider increasing the cost for campus parking permits and reducing the number of campus parking spaces to encourage greater use of transit and shared travel modes.