policy brief

Will California Lose Thousands of Affordable Homes Near Transit?

Abstract

California faces the loss of thousands of affordable rental units in the coming decade as affordability restrictions— known as covenants—expire. These agreements, signed between housing developers and government agencies, typically last 15 to 30 years and require that units be rented at below-market rates. When covenants expire, owners can convert units to market-rate housing, often displacing lower-income families.

In Southern California alone, over 17,000 affordable units are at risk of conversion, and nearly 70% of these units are located near high-quality transit. If the owners of these properties do not enter into new covenants, these units will be placed on the open market, likely leading to the displacement of lower-income residents to the urban outskirts, resulting in longer commutes and reduced access to reliable transit. To better understand the risk of losing affordable units, this brief analyzed historic data on affordable housing conversion and identified key factors that influence whether at-risk properties are preserved or lost.

policy brief

Overcoming Barriers to Transit-Oriented Development: Considering State, Regional, and Local Roles

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Author(s)

Elisa Barbour, Lev Gordon-Feierabend, Francois Kaeppelin

Abstract

Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a strategy that promotes building housing, shops, offices, and other destinations near public transit stations. TOD is compact and walkable, supports public transit use, reduces car dependency, and can help lower greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing the number of miles people drive. California has adopted many policies in recent years– at the state, regional, and local levels– to encourage TOD as part of its broader climate and housing goals. At the same time, the state faces a housing affordability crisis. In the past seven years, state lawmakers have passed more than 100 bills aimed at increasing housing production, particularly in areas near public transit.

research report

Overcoming Barriers to Transit-Oriented Development: Considering State, Regional, and Local Roles

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Author(s)

Elisa Barbour, Lev Gordon-Feierabend, Francois Kaeppelin

Abstract

This report considers motivations, obstacles, and policies and programs adopted at the state, regional, and local levels in California to support transit-oriented development (TOD). Regulatory policies adopted by the state in recent years to induce TOD are discussed, as well as state-led and regionally-managed funding programs. Findings are presented from two on-line surveys of local planning directors, and 51 interviews with regional and local planners. The findings point to multiple obstacles to achieving TOD, including market factors, resident opposition, and lack of sufficient funding for implementation, such as for necessary infrastructure to support new development. The most commonly adopted local policies to support TOD include streamlining of environmental review requirements, mixed-use zoning and upzoning (permitting higher densities), improving bike and pedestrian facilities, development of Specific Plans for neighborhoods, and mechanisms to ease accessory dwelling units (ADUs). The survey findings indicate that policies and programs initiated from multiple levels of government are deemed effective for inducing TOD. A recent one-off TOD-supportive funding program that was managed regionally, called the Regional Earley Action Program (REAP), is found to be rated as very valuable both by regional and local planners, leading to the recommendation that this program be instated on an ongoing basis with dedicated funding. The report also concludes that policies deemed effective for inducing TOD, especially funding affordable housing and addressing the nexus of zoning, CEQA streamlining for infill, permit streamlining through ministerial review, and support for Specific Plans, should continue to receive policy support from the state legislature and regional agencies.

research report

Impacts of LA Metro’s K-14 Fareless Transit Initiative on Youth Travel Behavior

Abstract

In October 2021, the Los Angeles Count Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro), in collaboration with other regional transit operators and multiple school districts across the county, launched the GoPass pilot program to offer free transit passes to K-14 students, which became permanent in early 2024. Students in a high school district in the Greater Los Angeles area were surveyed to determine the reasons students decided to participate in GoPass and how the students subjectively valued their travel preference. Students were less likely to participate in the GoPass program if they had the use of a car for trips to school but more likely if they had the option to take transit for trips leaving school. Student demographics did not play a large role in whether they participated in GoPass. Students highly value cars and trip amenities, such as onboard Wi-Fi. They subjectively value reduced travel time at $71/hour, similar to other studies among adults, but valued reduced waiting time at $98/hour, again consistent with other studies that find a high relative value for shorter waiting time. Students are not likely to be persuaded to take transit merely by making it free. Instead, school districts may consider increasing the cost for campus parking permits and reducing the number of campus parking spaces to encourage greater use of transit and shared travel modes.

Summary of Interviews with California Metropolitan Planning Organizations About Senate Bill 375 and the Sustainable Communities Strategies

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

- October 1, 2020

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley

Project Summary

In July and August of 2020, a research team of four graduate students from UC Berkeley’s Department of City and Regional Planning conducted interviews with directors and other high-level staff representing several of California’s metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to gather information on the achievements and challenges associated with the implementation of SB 375. Key takeaways from this effort include: 1) MPOs are not requesting additional authorities or oversight of local land use decisions; 2) MPOs use funding as “carrots” to incentivize local plans to align with regional goals, and many MPOs desire more discretionary funding and priority-specific funding; 3) some MPOs want to focus on greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies, such as telecommuting, active transportation, and technological advancement, in order to meet their GHG emission targets; 4) MPOs want the State to develop policies in ways that acknowledge distinct planning nuances and economic and geographic contexts across regions; 5) the process of developing and submitting regional plans to the State for review is staff-intensive and technically complex for MPOs, which takes away from the agencies’ capacity to focus on implementation and other work; 6) Senate Bill 375 has empowered MPOs to consider more deeply the relationship between land use and transportation; and 7) as a result of Senate Bill 375, there is now increased communication and engagement between the MPO and a broader set of stakeholders.

Do Post-Pandemic Travel Shifts Warrant Changes to California’s Transportation Policies and Plans?

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

October 1, 2025 - September 30, 2026

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Hao Ding

Project Summary

Remote work, online shopping, and streaming surged during the pandemic and remain high today, changing how people and goods move. This project synthesizes research on post-pandemic travel patterns and interviews transportation leaders and equity advocates to explore how policies and investments should evolve to meet new demands while supporting environmental and equity goals.

preprint journal article

Novel Methodology to Identify Factors Causing Heterogeneity in Travel Demand during and after the Pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the transportation sector, altering travel demand patterns and posing challenges for local systems. Evidence of spatial heterogeneity underscores the necessity for a comprehensive understanding of these disruptions. Origin–destination (OD) matrices are generally used to compare travel patterns. Direct observations like smartphone data to construct OD matrices may limit causality in trip distribution, emphasizing the need for a methodology enabling comparison of travel patterns and exploration of factors contributing to this heterogeneity. To this end, this study develops a novel two-phase methodology. The first phase involved capturing heterogeneity in the weekly progression of zonal trip-generation patterns (via structural similarity of OD matrices) and then clustering them together based on similarity. The second phase involved examining the factors influencing cluster membership of zones. We demonstrated the proof-of-concept using two case studies: home-based work trips on weekdays and home-based other trips on weekends. The case studies focused on the Northern California Megaregion. The data used in the first phase include passively collected mobile phone data. The second phase used data on explanatory variables (e.g., mean household income, employment density, the share of white- and blue-collar workers and half-mile transit accessibility) for the multinomial logit model. This additional data to augment the data set is sourced from American Community Survey five-year estimates and the US Environmental Protection Agency. This study uniquely applies a novel methodology to two case studies, showcasing how insights into factors driving travel pattern changes can assist local and regional policymakers in optimizing resource allocation, particularly for public transportation.

policy brief

How California cities respond to state-level parking reform

Abstract

Minimum parking requirements—zoning regulations that require a certain number of parking spaces to be built with new developments—come with a long list of downsides. The requirements increase the costs of development, reduce housing densities, subsidize car ownership, reduce walkability, and make it difficult to adapt and reuse historic buildings. In response, cities as diverse as Anchorage, Buffalo, and San Diego have reduced or eliminated parking requirements in recent years.

In 2022, California became the first state to eliminate parking requirements in certain neighborhoods. Assembly Bill 2097 (AB 2097) prohibits, in most circumstances, local governments from imposing parking requirements within a half-mile of an existing or planned major transit stop such as a rail station, ferry terminal, or the intersection of frequent bus routes. The research team examined how cities are responding to this new statewide law and draw out lessons for parking policy as well as other types of state preemption of local land use regulations.

Brace for Impact: The Environmental and Economic Effects of Shifting Passenger Travel from Airplanes to High-Speed Rail

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

July 20, 2020 - June 30, 2021

Principal Investigator

J.R. DeShazo

Project Team

Jason Karpman, James Di Fillippo

Project Summary

Aviation is the most greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive mode of transport for intrastate trips. Yet, there is no clear pathway for decarbonizing this sector. In the meantime, reducing GHGs from aviation requires shifting trips from the air to the ground, either by train or motor vehicle. There is a growing body of research that has documented the GHG implications of this diversion, but there are relatively few studies that have focused on other environmental and economic tradeoffs, or the efficacy of various policy instruments at facilitating this diversion. Researchers at the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation propose synthesizing the peer reviewed and grey literature on: (1) the societal tradeoffs of shifting passenger and cargo transportation from the air to the ground; (2) the policy instruments for facilitating this shift; and (3) the interaction of these instruments with the various motivations behind mode choice. The synthesis will pull out key takeaways for policymakers and transportation planners in California, where the construction of an interregional high-speed rail network is already underway. The findings from this synthesis could help inform the state’s efforts to stimulate an economic recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, while also leading the way towards carbon neutrality.

The Spatial Dilemma of Sustainable Transportation and Just Affordable Housing

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

July 20, 2020 - June 30, 2021

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

Siting subsidized affordable housing in dense urban areas near transit can help the state meet its environmental goals by reducing vehicle travel and lowering the amount of vehicle miles traveled (VMT). However, more information is needed on exactly how best to allocate housing subsidies that both improve access to economic and educational opportunities for underrepresented groups, and improve mobility throughout the state more broadly while reducing VMT. This project will address the challenge of identifying neighborhoods that are best suited to promoting the state’s housing and environmental goals. The research will look at VMT rates in neighborhoods with affordable housing and examine the access and environmental benefits of subsidized affordable housing near transit in dense, urban areas. The project will assemble tract-level data and indicators, and will analyze changes in the location of subsidized and non-subsidized housing between 2007 and 2018 to determine if the current and expected future distribution of affordable housing is consistent with the state’s VMT reduction goals. Findings from this analysis will be used to identify target priority areas for renters at the policy and program levels, including the siting of new federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit construction. In addition, the project will examine if and how transportation considerations are being incorporated into three important and innovative housing programs, which have a shared goal of increasing residential choice and mobility.