Towards More Credible VMT Forecasts for Project-Level Analysis in California

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

June 1, 2026 - June 30, 2028

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UCLA

Project Summary

Much of California’s sustainability policy is premised on the idea of reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). Under current state law, development projects cannot be approved without first estimating how much VMT they are likely to create, and then (often) taking steps to mitigate that VMT. The obstacle California faces, for this regulatory regime to be successful, is one of accounting. It remains hard to determine if a given policy reduces VMT, and if so, by how much. More accurate predictions of VMT impacts would reduce the likelihood that resources are being wasted on ineffective policies and offer assurance to stakeholders that state policies are achieving their intended pollution and greenhouse gas goals. This project focuses on three areas of improvement: 1) A more accurate and complete measurement of VMT, particularly using phone and odometer data; 2) A more accurate causal understanding of how development or transportation projects with different characteristics affect VMT; 3) A more accurate and readily accessible way to forecast VMT impacts of projects in comparison to well-defined counterfactual scenarios. This new analysis will focus on the VMT impacts of land development projects and of transportation projects believed to mitigate or reduce VMT. Results will be translated into one or more demonstration tools showing how to better estimate project-level VMT or VMT-mitigation, drawing in part from consultations with practitioners who will constitute an advisory group for the project.

Collection of Activity Data from On-Road Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2016 - July 31, 2017

Principal Investigator

Kanok Boriboonsomsin

Long Distance Travel and Destination Attractiveness

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2016 - July 31, 2017

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Santa Barbara

Project Summary

This report provides a summary of analyses using data from long-distance tours by each household from an 8-week California Household Travel Survey travel log. The first analysis uses Structural Equations Models (SEM) and a simpler variant called Path Analysis on three censored variables (tour miles by air, miles driving, and miles by public transportation) and two categorical variables (main trip tour purpose) and number of overnight stays. The second analysis uses Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCCA) to identify five distinct, informative patterns of long-distance travel. This analysis shows that long-distance tours for vacation, business travel, medical, and shopping are substantially distinct in terms of their travel characteristics and correspond to different combinations of other activities in the tour and they are done by different types of households. The methods used here to identify the typology of long-distance travel can be easily expanded to include a variety of other explanatory variables of this type of behavior in more focused data collection settings.

Assessing and Addressing the Mobility Needs of an Aging Population

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2017 - July 13, 2018

Principal Investigator

David Ragland

Project Summary

By 2030 the older adult population in California is expected to nearly double to over 8.6 million people. Many if not most older adults will reduce and eventually stop driving for medical and non-medical reasons, which in turn can impact mental health and activities including accessing needed medical care. In order to plan for these mobility changes and to support healthy aging in California, this proposed project will build upon work that the research team has conducted in California (funded by National Institute of Health and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) and nationally with members from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Healthy Aging Network (funded by the Federal Transit Administration) to understand the mobility needs of older adults in California. A comprehensive literature review is proposed followed by a representative survey of the aging adult population to assess: (i) mobility needs, (ii) impact of emerging technology on mobility, and (iii) impact of neighborhood characteristics on mobility. Through contracting with established survey companies, the team has conducted successful surveys of representative samples of the California population.

Encouraging Mode Shift from Truck to Rail for California Produce

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2017 - July 13, 2018

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Josh Seeherman

Project Summary

The movement of California goods is one of the largest employment generators within the state and is critical to both the structural health of the economy and the physical health of its citizens. However, the goods movement sector is subject to market failures that may result in suboptimal modal shares, in particular an excess of truck traffic some of which would ideally be diverted to rail. While opportunities for modal shift are limited within the state, there are significant possibilities for California exports. Examining the agricultural sector, California is one of the largest producers of perishable produce in the world and a majority of this produce leaves the state on a truck, despite the fact that rail dominated the market through the mid-1970’s. Significant inertia exists today among the grower-shipper- buyer network that has frozen in place the domination of the trucking industry among perishable produce, even though rail movement would reduce social cost in many cases. While the private sector is unlikely to invest in a modal shift given the historically low fuel prices, it is possible that there is an opening for a public-private partnership (PPP) that could provide a gentle push for change. This project will build on the initial work from the “Rail and the California Economy” project and explore the possibility of using public initiatives—including capital investment, risk sharing, subsidy, and other interventions—to support new rail infrastructure for the perishable produce industry. Specifically, the report will review the current state of affairs in two major growing regions, the Salinas Valley and the southern Central Valley, and analyze how goods move and the benefits of a modal shift to rail. The report will then identify public-private partnerships that might promote a shift to realize these benefits. Additionally, if time permits the project may review an existing PPP involving rail, the reconstruction of the Colton Crossing in southern California and the public benefits associated with its completion.

Regional Industrial Land Preservation: Perspectives from San Francisco Bay Area Cities on a Priority Production Area Program

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2017 - July 13, 2018

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

Many regions in California have prepared long-term plans for goods movement, recognizing the need to develop freight facilities to accommodate the transformation and growth of logistics in the state. Yet, for most, planning for industrial lands – and related jobs –is an afterthought. The Metropolitan Planning Commission and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) have thus decided to enact a new program that allows jurisdictions to prioritize industrial uses (the Priority Production Areas or PPAs). PPAs will then be included in the region’s Sustainable Communities Strategies. Although ABAG’s Executive Board adopted the program in early 2017, and it is mentioned in the 2040 Plan Bay Area, the program has not yet been developed. This translational project will help the Bay Area’s regional agencies develop the program. Building on program guidelines suggested by the recent “Goods Movement and Industrial Land Supply” study (funded by Caltrans), this project will interview and convene UC, regional agency, local jurisdiction staff, and economic development organizations to discuss and develop potential guidelines for designating PPAs. UC-Berkeley will also assist by identifying possible incentives and other implementation mechanisms and providing data and analysis to assist jurisdictions interested in participating in the program.

policy brief

Investigating Unmet and Difficult Travel in Underserved Communities in California

Abstract

Residents of disadvantaged, low-income, rural, and tribal communities—collectively referred to as underserved communities—often face transportation barriers resulting from decades of car-oriented planning. This has left lower-cost modes such as public transit, walking, and cycling unsafe or unavailable, resulting in widespread travel difficulties and unmet mobility needs that are challenging to measure. To understand how people are navigating these challenges, the research team surveyed 2,892 residents from underserved communities in California. Centering the experiences of people often underrepresented in travel behavior surveys, this study provides insights into the main factors linked to difficult or unmet travel, how people adapt to these challenges, and the barriers they face. The findings provide evidence to inform the design of equitable transportation solutions that can improve mobility and access for California’s Priority Populations—groups that are State priorities for investments in improving health, air quality, and access to economic opportunities.

policy brief

Decarbonizing Heavy-Duty Transportation Modes with Electricity, Biofuels, and Hydrogen

Abstract

Heavy-duty transportation modes including trucks, buses, and seaport and airport equipment are relatively hard to decarbonize because of their demanding performance requirements and other factors. The California Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality calls for carbon-neutral transportation across all modes by 2045, with different sectors reaching 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by earlier dates, depending on the type of vehicle. Creative strategies are needed to help incentivize fleets to adopt the lowest emission truck, bus, and other equipment technologies, given their relatively higher capital and fuel costs. These policies might include offering enhanced incentives through the state Heavy-Duty Vehicle Incentive Program, truck “feebates,” adopting indirect-source rules that target high-traffic areas with the most pollutant generation and impact, and others. Recent research at the UC ITS highlights key issues and concerns and offers insights into the potential near- and longer-term solutions to address GHG and other pollutant emissions from these important sectors.

policy brief

How Did Travel Change after COVID-19? Insights from Northern California Megaregion

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic greatly changed how people live, work, and travel. These changes influenced travel habits, public transit use, and transportation funding across regions. However, these effects were not the same everywhere; some areas faced major, lasting disruptions, while others experienced smaller impacts and recovered faster. Recognizing these differences is crucial for transportation agencies and policymakers as they prepare for future uncertainties and limited resources. In a large and diverse region like the Northern California Megaregion, with about 13 million people, understanding how and why travel patterns shifted among different communities can help improve long-term planning and system resilience.

State Preemption and Parking Requirements

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2023 - December 31, 2025

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

We consider how cities are responding to California’s legislation that preempts them from requiring parking close to transit. To what extent are cities sticking to the letter of the law? Which cities are going further and taking the opportunity to go beyond the scope of the state requirements? Or are some cities attempting to evade the spirit of the law?