policy brief

A Quiet Revolution in California Transportation Planning and Finance

Abstract

Over the past century, surface transportation planning and programming gradually evolved from a largely ad hoc, locally funded affair to a highly formalized intergovernmental process, guided by both federal and state policy and supported mostly by fuel tax revenues. Metropolitan planning organizations, like the San Francisco Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the Southern California Association of Governments, grew out of requirements that federally funded transportation projects be part of a continuing, comprehensive, and cooperative planning process. In California today, numerous state regulations require that transportation projects advance air quality, climate, equity, and public participation goals. Over the past several decades, however, this carefully constructed federal-state partnership has been reverting back toward greater local decision-making, driven by an increasing reliance on local revenue sources. Researchers at the UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies have been following these developments in California and across the nation.

research report

Advancing Alternative Fuel Aviation Technologies in California

Publication Date

February 1, 2025

Author(s)

Yati Liu, Mark Hansen, Jin Wook Ro, Colin Murphy

Abstract

The aviation sector in California is facing increased pressure to reduce its carbon footprint, leading to a growing interest in alternative fuel aviation (AFA) technologies such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), as well as electric- and hydrogen- powered aircraft. The report develops a California Aviation Energy Model (CAVEM), examining various AFA technologies and analyzing possible policy options. The analysis emphasizes the importance of SAF in the short term, with projections indicating sufficient supply for intrastate flights and capped vegetable oil-based fuel consumption. Long-term efforts are focused on electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft, which remain in the early stages of development. Electrification of intrastate flights is deemed feasible, with estimated electricity consumption amounting to a small percentage of overall electricity generation. The report highlights the necessity for additional policy incentives (such as tax exemptions) and a comprehensive policy framework to effectively promote sustainable aviation in the long run.

policy brief

Local Government Strategies to Improve Shared Micromobility Infrastructure

Abstract

Shared micromobility (bikesharing and scooter sharing) experienced market growth since 2021, rebounding from the pandemic across markets in the US, Mexico, and Canada. In partnership with the North American Bikeshare and Scootershare Association (NABSA) and Toole Design, researchers at the Transportation Sustainability Research Center (TSRC) at UC Berkeley have collaborated on the data collection and analysis of the shared micromobility industry metrics through a series of annual reports beginning in 2019. This includes a series of operator and agency surveys. Most recently, TSRC researchers collaborated on an Operator Survey (n=29) and an Agency Survey (n=52), distributed between January 2023 and June 2023, of all known shared micromobility operators and agencies as part of the 2022 state-of-the-industry report. Similar surveys were deployed in January 2022 and May 2022. These surveys include questions about shared micromobility systems operating within those agency jurisdictions and operator markets.

website

MobilityGPT - Synthetic Data Generation Pipeline & Dataset

Abstract

MobilityGPT is a state-of-the-art model designed for human mobility modeling. Built as a decoder-only GPT model, it excels at generating mobility trajectories with high precision. By integrating transformer architecture with spatial awareness, MobilityGPT delivers superior trajectory predictions, making it a powerful tool for understanding and forecasting human movement patterns.

research report

Creating an Inclusive Bicycle Level of Service: Virtual Bicycle Simulator Study

Publication Date

February 1, 2025

Author(s)

Julia Griswold, Edna Aguilar, Han Wang, Md Mintu Miah

Abstract

Bicycle level of service (BLOS) is an essential performance measure for transportation agencies to monitor and prioritize improvements to infrastructure, but existing measures do not capture the nuance of facility differences on the state highway system. However, with the advancements in virtual reality (VR) technology, a VR bicycle simulator is an ideal tool to safely gather user feedback on a variety of bicycling environments and conditions. This research explored the benefits and limitations of using a VR environment to assess individuals’ bike infrastructure preferences. The research team conducted a bicyclist user experience survey in person, on SafeTREC’s VR bicycle simulator, and online and compared the results. The online survey consisted of showing participants pairs of VR videos of biking scenarios and asking them to choose the one that they preferred. To validate the online survey responses, the team conducted in-person experiments with a VR bike simulator using the same pairs of videos. The analysis indicates that 63 percent of the responses were consistent while a smaller percentage of responses (37 percent) changed after the simulator ride due to better perception provided by the simulator virtual environment. The outcome of this study helped to validate the online survey responses of the study.

research report

Capturing Transit Rider Perspectives on Safety and Harassment: Lessons from San Francisco

Abstract

Personal safety concerns continue to be one of the most critical issues among transit riders and women and gender minorities in particular. These safety concerns stem from the experience of sexual harassment that people who identify as women face frequently. While harassment can be a common occurrence, the vast majority of these experiences go unreported to transit agencies, leaving agencies without information about the magnitude of this problem on their system. This report details work with the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) in their efforts to understand and address this problem. The SFMTA, working with two UCLA graduate students, designed a survey that drew from previous survey efforts and was tailored to address their interests and needs. This report documents the process of developing and deploying the questionnaire, in an effort to help other agencies take the first steps to better understanding rider safety and harassment. Through breaking down SFMTA’s approach, this report intends to inspire and inform similar efforts at other agencies.

published journal article

A Deep-Learning Approach to Detect and Classify Heavy-Duty Trucks in Satellite Images

Abstract

Heavy-duty trucks serve as the backbone of the supply chain and have a tremendous effect on the economy. However, they severely impact the environment and public health. This study presents a novel truck detection framework by combining satellite imagery with Geographic Information System (GIS)-based OpenStreetMap data to capture the distribution of heavy-duty trucks and shipping containers in both on-road and off-road locations with extensive spatial coverage. The framework involves modifying the CenterNet detection algorithm to detect randomly oriented trucks in satellite images and enhancing the model through ensembling with Mask RCNN, a segmentation-based algorithm. GIS information refines and improves the model’s prediction results. Applied to part of Southern California, including the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the framework helps assess the environmental impact of heavy-duty trucks in port-adjacent communities and understand truck density patterns along major freight corridors. This research has implications for policy, practice, and future research.

policy brief

Battery Electric Trucks Are Well-Suited for Regional Haul Operations and Offer Significant Environmental and Health Benefits to Communities

Abstract

Heavy-duty diesel trucks contribute significantly to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in regions with high freight activity, such as Southern California. In communities near freight hubs, this has resulted in severe public health challenges. California is leading efforts to address these emissions, with regulations requiring zero-emission trucks by 2045. Battery electric trucks (BETs) are a promising solution, but they have primarily been deployed in limited use cases like drayage operations. As BET technology improves, understanding their real-world performance in regional haul applications is critical to expanding their adoption. Regional haul applications differ from other trucking operations in that they typically involve medium-distance routes, often under 150 miles, with trucks returning to a home base daily for charging. While regional haul does not account for the majority of truck miles in California, it represents a significant and growing segment of freight operations, particularly in densely populated areas where emission reductions can have the greatest impact on air quality and public health. To better understand BET performance, this study examined the real-world activity of 15 BETs operating in eight regional distribution fleets across Southern California. It analyzed the trucks’ travel and charging patterns, as well as how much of their operations occurred in disadvantaged communities.

policy brief

Automobile Debt Increased Substantially during the Pandemic

Abstract

Most car buyers use some form of financing to purchase a vehicle, and almost half of all California borrowers carry some amount of automobile debt. While automobile loans enable lower-income households—who might otherwise be priced out of vehicle ownership—to make payments over time, this debt can significantly strain household budgets. The COVID-19 pandemic elevated the importance of owning a private vehicle as concerns over viral person-to-person transmission made traveling by car an even more attractive compared to communal transportation (e.g., public transit). Moreover, a host of pandemic-related services, including testing and vaccination, were either only or best accessible by car.

To better understand how COVID-19 impacted car ownership, this research project explored whether automobile loans (and in turn debt) in California—particularly in communities of color where workers were more likely to work outside of the home—increased during the pandemic. It drew on a one-percent sample of the University of California Consumer Credit Panel, a dataset from Experian of every loan and borrower in California.

research report

Road Capacity as a Fundamental Determinant of Vehicle Travel

Abstract

Reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is a central plank of climate policy in California. VMT, however, has proved stubbornly resistant to policies to reduce it. While urban growth has become more compact and public transit service levels have been maintained or increased, these positive trends have not translated into less driving. This report argues that substantial reductions in vehicle travel in congested urban regions can only be achieved through reducing road capacity. It may be difficult to achieve substantial reductions in vehicle travel by relying solely on public transit, walking and cycling, and land use planning for compact, mixed-use development without an equal emphasis on limiting road capacity expansions, and even reducing current capacity.