This summer, the UC Institute of Transportation Studies launched four new multiyear research initiatives, made possible through a one-time $4.5 million state investment championed by Assembly Member Lori D. Wilson. The initiatives bring together multidisciplinary research teams from UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UC Irvine, and UCLA to address four pressing challenges: the transition to zero-emission commercial vehicles, sustaining light-duty zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption, the future of public transit, and improving VMT forecasting. Explore the four initiatives below.
Supporting California’s Transition to Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicles
Reducing transportation emissions depends on accelerating the shift to zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty commercial trucks — a transition now complicated by recent federal rollbacks. This initiative will help policymakers identify the most effective, equitable, and cost-efficient approaches to keeping California’s commercial truck decarbonization efforts on track. The research takes a holistic look at the full ecosystem of zero-emission truck adoption, including fleet decision-making, charging and hydrogen fueling infrastructure, vehicle purchase and operating costs, and health and equity impacts in communities near major freight corridors. Key activities include mapping fleet transition plans, modeling infrastructure needs along Southern California freight corridors, updating cost projections for heavy-duty zero-emission trucks, building an advanced freight simulation model for Southern California, and quantifying air quality and environmental justice outcomes across different policy scenarios.
Evaluating Policies and Trends for Sustaining Light-Duty ZEV Adoption in California
California’s passenger vehicle electrification goals face mounting pressure from federal rollbacks and significant pullbacks on electric vehicle production by major automakers. This initiative will help the state navigate this uncertainty by using advanced modeling to assess how economic conditions, market dynamics, and state policy interventions can most effectively sustain progress toward California’s ZEV goals. Researchers will evaluate the effectiveness of monetary and non-monetary incentives, assess charging infrastructure investments, and analyze equity and affordability outcomes — with particular attention to lower-income households, disadvantaged communities, and buyers in the used vehicle market. The research will also enhance the forecasting tools used by state agencies to better capture how supply and demand shape ZEV adoption across California’s diverse regions.
Building a Sustainable Future for California Public Transit
Public transit has long been asked to serve more people with limited resources. Achieving the state’s ambitious climate, equity, and transportation goals will require rethinking how public transit is funded, governed, and integrated into urban life and the broader transportation system. This initiative sets out to reimagine public transit as a reliable backbone of California’s transportation system. The research pursues two core objectives: identify sustainable funding and governance models for public transit, and help it compete more effectively for riders and street space. Activities include case study comparisons of transit funding models relevant to California cities, analysis of regional governance structures in California’s four major metropolitan areas, a review of how New York’s congestion pricing program has impacted public transit and potential lessons learned for California, an evaluation of policies designed to increase ridership, and a statewide assessment of public transit service gaps.
Towards More Credible VMT Forecasts for Project-Level Analysis in California
Accurately measuring vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is foundational to California’s climate and land use policies — yet the methods and tools currently used to estimate VMT impacts for development and transportation projects are often imprecise and inconsistent. This initiative aims to improve the credibility of VMT forecasting by developing more rigorous, transparent, and data-driven approaches grounded in emerging data sources, including mobile phone location data. Key activities include creating an improved VMT measurement framework that integrates multiple data sources; evaluating current VMT estimation practices across state, regional, and local agencies; developing improved forecasts for land development and transportation projects; designing better “no-build” counterfactual scenarios; and producing new empirical estimates of the VMT effects of transit investments, active travel infrastructure, and other commonly used mitigation measures.
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