Abstract
California is investing in a hydrogen system as part of its strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transportation and industry. While much of the state’s hydrogen planning has focused on demand from cars and trucks, other transportation sectors—including ports, aviation, and rail—could provide significant demand. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding federal support, including the suspension of $1.2 billion in federal funding for the ARCHES hydrogen hub, has raised new questions about how California should prioritize and coordinate future hydrogen investments to best support decarbonization and public health goals.
There has been limited analysis of how demand could develop across multiple transportation modes and where hydrogen production and refueling infrastructure should be located to maximize efficiency and reduce costs. The potential environmental and workforce impacts of a statewide hydrogen system are also not well understood. To address these gaps, the research team modeled hydrogen use through 2030 and 2045, across multiple transportation modes in California—trucks, transit buses, seaport and airport ground vehicles, aircraft, trains, and light-duty vehicles. This project developed two scenarios, with low vs. high levels of adoption of hydrogen-powered vehicles over time, for example reaching 10% vs. 30% market share of heavy-duty trucks by 2040. The team used the scenarios to estimate a range of potential future hydrogen demand, greenhouse gas reductions, infrastructure needs, and job creation. This brief focuses on the high-adoption scenario, where benefits are much greater—but stronger policy support would be needed.
