policy brief

Road Expansion is the Fundamental Cause of Growth in Vehicle Travel

Abstract

California is unlikely to meet its climate goals if it doesn’t reduce vehicle travel. So far, however, state and local efforts to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) have fallen short of expectations, even as cities grow more compact and public transit funding has increased. To better understand the role of highway expansion in meeting California’s climate goals, this study analyzed whether a simple model that only considers road capacity and population growth can predict VMT as well as traditional transportation models. It also looked at the share of recent VMT growth that has been caused by expanded road capacity, and the reductions in VMT from transit and other projects funded by California’s climate investments.

policy brief

How Cooperation Between Connected Automated Vehicles and Smart Infrastructure Can Improve Situational Awareness for Traffic Safety

Publication Date

February 1, 2025

Author(s)

Xin Xia, Jiaqi Ma, Zhaoliang Zheng, Yunpeng Luo, Fayzah Alshammari, Letian Gao, Hao Xiang, Alfred Chen

Abstract

Escalating trends in pedestrian and cyclist fatalities points to a pressing need to improve traffic safety, especially for vulnerable road users such as pedestrians, cyclists, and scooters. A key challenge in enhancing intersection safety is the lack of accurate, detailed, and real-time data that captures the complexities of these dynamic and uncertain environment. If intersections themselves could “see” the diverse array of vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, and scooters, each with unique movement patterns and safety needs, this could vastly improve safety. Making intersections “smart” by equipping them with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology that can capture a detailed and real-time 3D environment could facilitate the accurate detection of vehicles and other road users, to better control signal timing and assist future connected vehicles (CVs) and/or connected automated vehicles (CAVs) in driving safely.

published journal article

Impact of Debris Removal Post-Wildfires on Pavement Fatigue and Rutting Lives: Case Studies of California’s Camp and Carr Fires

Abstract

Between 2017 and 2018, California experienced a series of four devastating fires, including the Camp and Carr Fires, which ranked among the most destructive fires in U.S. history. During these fires, roads were critical in the evacuation, rescue operations, goods transportation, and access to critical services. Additionally, postfire, road infrastructure became crucial for removing hazardous and nonhazardous waste from fire-affected areas to major landfills and recycling facilities. Despite the significance of pavements in this process, previous studies have not quantitatively assessed the potential damage caused to pavements by the additional trucks used in debris removal operations. This research aimed to address this knowledge gap by collecting precise traffic data for the routes taken to waste management facilities, including data on the number of trips involved in debris transportation. The traffic information was then utilized to calculate changes in equivalent single axle loads and traffic index values for pavement design. Pavement structures were obtained from the available core database. Pavement simulation results showed that of the nine studied highways, only one exhibited a reduction in cracking life of about 2 years. However, Skyway, the main artery in the town of Paradise, demonstrated a significantly accelerated fatigue cracking failure by 14.3 years. A sensitivity analysis of fire intensity showed other highway sections that were structurally adequate could be affected by larger fires. The presented methodology could be used in traffic planning as part of debris management operations to avoid vulnerable pavement sections.

research report

Benefits, Challenges, and Opportunities of Different Last-Mile Delivery Strategies

Abstract

As online shopping nears its third decade, it is clear that its impacts on urban goods flow are profound. Increased freight traffic and related negative externalities such as greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution can impede sustainability goals. In response, e-retailers are exploring innovative distribution strategies to enhance last-mile delivery sustainability and efficiency. They use urban consolidation centers with light-duty vehicles like electric vans and cargo bikes, establish alternative customer pickup points, and deploy crowdsourced delivery networks. Advanced technologies that may streamline deliveries, such as autonomous delivery robots and unmanned aerial vehicles, are being tested. University of California Davis and Irvine researchers have investigated these strategies under economic viability, environmental efficiency, and social equity frameworks. Different modeling approaches were implemented to evaluate last-mile network designs and the potential for decarbonizing delivery fleets by switching to electric vehicles. Key findings suggest that while these innovative strategies offer substantial environmental benefits and reduce operational costs, they also present challenges like higher initial investments and operational hurdles. The study emphasizes the need for ongoing innovation and careful strategy implementation to balance sustainability with urban delivery systems’ economic and service reliability demands.

published journal article

Real-World Activity Patterns of Heavy-Duty Battery Electric Trucks from Regional Distribution Fleets in Southern California

Abstract

Heavy-duty trucks are a major source of transportation-related greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions. One approach to reducing these trucks’ climate and health impacts is to transition them to zero-emission technologies such as battery electric trucks (BETs). To date, BETs have been deployed mostly in drayage applications. As the performance of BETs has improved in recent years, there is increasing interest in using BETs also in regional haul applications. This paper examines real-world activity patterns of 15 heavy-duty BETs in regional haul applications using data collected from early deployments of these trucks across eight different fleets in Southern California. The results show that the BETs are typically utilized on routes (or tours) that are much shorter than their driving ranges. They often make one or two tours per day and are usually charged at the end of each tour. Due to the variation in the time of day that the BETs are operated, they are charged at different times of day, spreading the charging load throughout the day. In addition, the results indicate that about half of the BET’s operations on average occur in or around disadvantaged communities, providing emission reduction benefits to these communities.

published journal article

Quantifying the Employment Accessibility Benefits of Shared Automated Vehicle Mobility Services: Consumer Welfare Approach Using Logsums

Abstract

The goal of this study is to assess and quantify the potential employment accessibility benefits of shared-use automated vehicle (AV) mobility service (SAMS) modes across a large diverse metropolitan region considering heterogeneity in the working population. To meet this goal, this study proposes employing a welfare-based (i.e. logsum-based) measure of accessibility, obtained via estimating a hierarchical work destination-commute mode choice model. The employment accessibility logsum measure incorporates the spatial distribution of worker residences and employment opportunities, the attributes of the available commute modes, and the characteristics of individual workers. The study further captures heterogeneity of workers using a latent class analysis (LCA) approach to account for different worker clusters valuing different types of employment opportunities differently, in which the socio-demographic characteristics of workers are the LCA model inputs. The accessibility analysis results in Southern California indicate: (i) the accessibility benefit differences across latent classes are modest but young workers and low-income workers do see higher benefits than high- and middle-income workers; (ii) there are substantial spatial differences in accessibility benefits with workers living in lower density areas benefiting more than workers living in high-density areas; (iii) nearly all the accessibility benefits come from the SAMS-only mode as opposed to the SAMS+Transit mode; and (iv) the SAMS cost per mile assumption significantly impacts the magnitude of the overall employment accessibility benefits.

research report

Evaluating the Seismic Vulnerability and Resilience of BART’s Berkeley Hills Tunnel

Publication Date

January 1, 2025

Author(s)

Esra Zengin, Yousef Bozorgnia, Jonathan P. Stewart

Abstract

Critical nodes in transportation networks, such as major transit tunnels and interchange stations, are vital for maintaining system functionality following a disruptive event such as a large earthquake. This project focuses on evaluating the seismic resilience of BART’s Berkeley Hills Tunnel that intersects the Hayward Fault, one of California’s most active seismic zones. The Hayward Fault poses a significant risk, with the potential for a magnitude 7+ earthquake that could severely impact the tunnel, potentially disrupting BART service and affecting the broader transit network. This study employs the latest fault displacement hazard data and models to estimate the probability of fault rupture displacements and assesses the resulting damage. It then evaluates the likelihood of service interruptions caused by potential Hayward Fault events. Theresults suggest that the tunnels may experience minor to significant damage depending on the amplitude of the faultdisplacement, which can lead to repair times ranging from a few weeks to over a year. The findings highlight the importance of improving tunnel resilience to minimize service disruptions and ensure efficient recovery following major earthquakes.

policy brief

A Detailed Look at How the Pandemic Changed Travel Patterns Across Regions in Northern California Megaregion

Abstract

Many studies have focused on the shifts in travel patterns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and how travel demand continues to evolve in the post-pandemic era. Key metrics such as trip volume–the total number of trips within a specific area–help explain the pandemic’s impact on travel demand over time. However, to fully understand changes in travel behaviors, it is also important to analyze where trips start and end—otherwise known as Origin-Destination (OD) demand.
To better understand OD demand during and after the pandemic, the research team developed a data-driven methodology to analyze travel patterns across different regions, times of day, days of the week (weekday and weekend), and trip purpose. This study used passively collected location-based data from the StreetLight Data platform (StreetLight Data, 2022) in the form of weekly OD matrices of all vehicle modes, segmented by various relevant variables. It focused on the Northern California Megaregion, which includes 21 counties from the San Francisco Bay Area to the Sacramento region and the northern part of the San Joaquin Central Valley. The study period spanned from January 2019 to October 2021.

policy brief

What are the Public Health and Environmental Implications of Drayage Truck Electrification Targets in California?

Abstract

To better understand the implications of transitioning drayage trucks to zero-emission, this project analyzed the health impacts and GHG freeway emissions from diesel-powered drayage trucks and the benefits of replacing them with zero-emission trucks, accounting for current and expected air quality regulations. The study area stretched between the San Pedro Bay and the Inland Empire, home to large warehouse complexes. It focused on two years: 2012 (when pre-2007 drayage trucks were phased out in the Clean Air Action Plan), and 2035 (the deadline in Executive Order N-79-20). The analyses incorporated projections of the size and composition of the vehicle fleets from data collected by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), estimates of future emission factors from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that account for projected technology improvements, and projected increases in cargo demand at the ports in 2035 compared to 2012.

policy brief

The Costs and Gains of Raising Truck Speed Limits

Abstract

Highway speed limits are increasing across the United States (Figure 1). There is also a national trend toward uniform speed limits, within states, for both passenger vehicles and trucks. California is one of only seven remaining states that sets different speed limits, with lower speed limits for trucks than passenger vehicles. While higher speed limits provide operational benefits by shortening travel times and fostering economic benefits—especially for the trucking and logistics industries—they can also increase the likelihood and severity of crashes since higher vehicle speeds require longer stopping distances and generate more energy during a collision.
While there is no consensus on the optimal speed limit, research generally shows that lower speed limits reduce the frequency and severity of crashes. Likewise, there is mixed evidence on whether universal (i.e., same for trucks and passenger vehicles) or differential speed limits are safer. While some evidence suggests that setting lower speed limits for heavier trucks that take longer to stop has safety benefits, others argue that differential speed limits create bottlenecks may cause more crashes as cars attempt to overtake slower-moving trucks.
The research team used traffic simulation and statistical models to estimate the costs of crashes, travel time, and vehicle operation for various speed limit scenarios in California. Analysis focused on the economic and comprehensive costs associated with fatal and severe traffic crashes, as outlined by the National Safety Council. They derived key metrics such as traffic speeds, travel times, and distances by simulating typical highway operating conditions. These insights helped calculate the overall economic and operational impact across the state’s highway system.