policy brief

Navigating the road to 100% zero emission vehicle sales: policy and research needs

Abstract

More than 30 countries and several states and provinces (e.g., California, British Columbia) intend to reach 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by between 2025 and 2040. In 2024, 22% of global vehicle sales were plug-in electric vehicles (PEV), some large auto markets reached 10-30% in PEV sales, and some Nordic nations achieved sales of between 30% and 90%. Little research focuses specifically on challenges in reaching 100% ZEV sales. This policy brief is based on a literature review of the growing body of research on PEVs. The review focuses on understanding challenges in reaching 100% PEV sales and identifies current research questions on issues related to 100% PEV adoption.

research report

What Explains Trends in Orange County Transportation Authority Bus Ridership?

Abstract

This report investigates whether the implementation in 2015 of California Assembly Bill 60 (AB 60) which requires the California Department of Motor Vehicles to issue a driver’s license to applicants who can prove California residency even if they are not legal US residents was responsible for subsequent declines in Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) bus ridership. Changing socioeconomic conditions, poor connectivity, poor service quality, and increased competition from TNCs are possible reasons behind this negative trend. Another potential cause is the implementation in 2015 of AB 60. In this context, this study examines the association between changes in OCTA bus ridership and the inception of AB 60 while controlling for differences in transit supply, socioeconomic variables, gas prices, multi-family rent, and single-family home value. To explain changes in monthly average weekday ridership, we estimated four route-level fixed-effect panel regression models different types of bus service. We analyzed ridership data for 2014 (just before AB 60) and 2015-2016 (the first two years after AB 60) for local, community, express, and station link routes. For local and community routes, we find decreases in the monthly OCTA bus ridership coefficients. For local routes, they range from a low of 1.7% in the Winter to a high of 7.7% in the Fall of 2015-16 compared to 2014. To counter this slide in ridership, OCTA may consider adjusting its service, increasing service frequency on selected routes, and exploring free or discounted pass programs.

policy brief

Charging Ahead: How Income and Home Access Shape Electric Vehicle Adoption among Ridehailing Drivers

Publication Date

August 27, 2025

Author(s)

Abstract

Transportation network companies (TNCs), also known as ridehailing, such as Uber and Lyft, have contributed to increased vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and associated emissions in California’s urban areas over the past decade. In response, Senate Bill (SB) 1014 – the Clean Miles Standard – requires TNCs to achieve 90% electric vehicle (EV) miles traveled and zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per passenger mile by 2030. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) oversee implementation and enforcement of these targets.

To understand the barriers and preferences for EV adoption among TNC drivers, the research team used a mixed-methods approach that integrates qualitative and quantitative data. This included 10 expert interviews, 8 driver group discussions, and a statewide survey of 436 full- and part-time TNC drivers conducted between May 2023 and April 2024. The survey gathered detailed information on drivers’ socio-demographic profiles, attitudes toward EVs, driving behaviors, and policy preferences, such as charging credits (i.e., a monetary incentive or prepaid allowance to offset the cost of EV charging activities and EV charging equipment) and EV purchase discounts (i.e., price reductions or instant rebates at the point of sale). In addition, the survey presented hypothetical decision-making scenarios to explore how factors such as income level, home charging access, and prior EV experience influence a TNC driver’s willingness to acquire an EV. Using statistical analysis, we estimated the most influential factors for EV adoption for full-time as well as part-time drivers. Then a “what-if” simulation was ran to explore how different combinations of incentives and driver characteristics might change the appeal of EV adoption.

policy brief

Uncovering Traffic Emissions: Converging Direct Measurements and Mobility Science

Abstract

Despite the years of climate change mitigation effort, per capita transportation emissions are on the rise. Reducing vehicle miles traveled, congestion mitigation and increasing vehicle efficiency are three strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from vehicles. Outcomes of these strategies may contradict each other considering their impacts on the road network and possible behavior changes within the transportation system. Though, models used in policy evaluations do not capture the interplay between vehicle characteristics, travel demand, and urban form. Understanding the spatial and temporal variations in vehicular emissions and the impact of each subsector requires collaboration between two seemingly separate fields: emissions modeling and urban science. This research combines state-of-the art methods from urban science and atmospheric chemistry to develop a Mobile Data Emission System (MODES), which is a portable framework for making fine grained vehicle emissions estimates using a large sample of mobile phone data for the Bay Area, Location Based Service Data from SafeGraph, and Uber Movement Speeds data. The MODES results were validated with two different sensor-based emission estimates, including the direct CO2 measurements of the Berkeley Air quality and CO2 Network (BEACO2N).

policy brief

Shifting a Portion of Plug-In Electric Vehicle Travel Patterns Could Significantly Cut Peak Power Demand

Abstract

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are among the most promising strategies for reducing transportation-related emissions and mitigating their impacts on both the environment and public health. Historically, PEV adoption has been slowed by three key barriers: range anxiety, limited charger availability, and high purchase costs. Recent advances — including improvements in battery technology, tax incentives, and subsidized charging programs — have begun to ease these challenges, leading to steadily increasing adoption rates. Planning for the mobility needs of PEVs is particularly important due to the vulnerability of the power grid to outages that can cascade drastically. Yet a common limitation in current PEV analyses is their narrow focus on mobility patterns, often restricted to estimating simple variables like arrival or departure times. Few studies have incorporated individual mobility needs at a metropolitan scale into planning for electricity demand management. To address this gap, this study simulated daily travel patterns for the entire Bay Area population using TimeGeo, a mobile phone-based urban mobility model. TimeGeo identifies home, work, and other activity locations for individuals based on the timing and frequency of their phone calls. These data can be used to simulate the travel behavior of PEV owners, combined with vehicle usage rates drawn from U.S. Census data and the California Plug-in Electric Vehicle Driver Survey.

policy brief

Enhancing Equity in the Plug-in Electric Vehicle Transition: Lessons from Rural California Electric Vehicle Owners

Abstract

In California, 38% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from the transport sector, and 27% of these transport emissions come from passenger vehicles. To reach carbon neutrality by 2045, as directed under Executive Order B 55 18, electrification of passenger vehicles is required. To facilitate an equitable transition to electric vehicle technologies, policymakers must account for the diverse needs and challenges faced by residents in rural communities. Rural areas often have greater travel distances and a reliance on passenger vehicles, due to a lack of alternative modes. While rural areas account for only 7% of the state’s population, California policy decisions can be far reaching and serve as guidance for other states with higher rural populations. To better understand the unique barriers and opportunities for rural electric vehicle adoption, the research team conducted in-depth interviews with 35 rural owners of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) across six counties in California. A PEV is an electric vehicle with a plug: either a battery electric vehicle (BEV) or a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). The study explored the owners’ travel behaviors, charging experiences, and motivations for PEV purchase. By centering on the experiences of current rural PEV users, the research offers insights into how infrastructure development, policy incentives, and outreach strategies can be better tailored to support equitable PEV adoption in rural communities

policy brief

Advancing Community-Identified Strategies to Transform Roadways in California’s San Joaquin Valley

Abstract

Disparities in exposure to roadway hazards (e.g., pollution, noise) remain stubbornly persistent due to structural inequalities embedded in the built environment. Research has consistently documented racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in traffic exposures nationwide, including heightened exposure to heavy-duty truck traffic, a significant source of noise and pollution. Such disparities also exist in the provision of sidewalks, bike lanes, and street trees, which can help mitigate roadway dust, noise, and pollution and can increase pedestrian safety, encourage walking and cycling, and provide health benefits.

This publication describes how the research team evaluated opportunities and barriers to using a community steering committee process approach to advance environmental justice and transportation equity. Through interviews and case study analysis, the team examined the role community leaders played in the prioritization and implementation of three community-identified strategies that mitigate roadway hazards in three AB 617 communities in California’s San Joaquin Valley – Stockton, South Central Fresno, and Arvin/Lamont. These strategies include (1) vegetative barriers between roadways and sensitive land uses; (2) expanded sidewalk infrastructure; and (3) revised heavy duty truck route designations.

research report

Between the Forest and the Trees: Community Strategies to Transform Roadways in California’s San Joaquin Valley

Abstract

Expanding participation of historically disenfranchised groups within decision-making processes is an important strategy to increase equity within transportation planning but traditional engagement practices (e.g., public meetings, focus groups) have historically done little to address the needs of disadvantaged communities. This study evaluates the opportunities and barriers to using a community steering committee participation model within transportation planning to advance equity and environmental justice. It utilizes interview and case study analysis to examine the experiences of residents and community leaders in prioritizing community-identified strategies to mitigate roadway hazards in three AB 617 communities in California’s San Joaquin Valley – Stockton, South Central Fresno, and Arvin/Lamont. It investigates the role resident and CBO members played in the prioritization, approval, and implementation of three strategies to transform roadways and mitigate air pollution, noise, dust, and safety hazards: (1) new vegetative barriers between major roadways and sensitive land uses; (2) expanded sidewalk infrastructure; and (3) revised heavy-duty truck route designations. Findings demonstrate that “meaningful involvement” for impacted communities within transportation planning will require officials, residents, and organizations to commit to an ongoing process of experimentation and learning about the most effective approaches for advancing transportation equity and environmental justice.

preprint journal article

Optimal Fare Policy and Fleet Sizing for an Integrated Fixed-Route Transit and Microtransit System

Abstract

Integrating microtransit with fixed-route transit (FRT) can improve travelers’ mobility by leveraging the benefits of microtransit’s flexibility and FRT’s high passenger capacity. However, the high operating cost of microtransit presents a challenge, which calls for a careful evaluation of the trade-offs between mobility gains and operational cost. To address this need, this paper develops a modeling approach and solution procedure to identify Pareto-optimal designs. The researchers focus on design parameters of practical interest, namely, fare policies and microtransit fleet size. To explore these trade-offs, a bi-level and bi-objective (i.e., minimize taxpayer subsidy and maximize mobility-based consumer welfare) modeling framework, with an agent-based transportation system simulation model at the lower level and a multi-objective Bayesian Optimization (BO) model at the upper level is proposed. The research team applied the modeling and solution approach to Lemon Grove, California (a suburban area in San Diego County). Results revealed a diverse set of solutions along the Pareto frontier, indicating that some naive microtransit fare strategies are suboptimal. Notably, Pareto-optimal designs feature a 50-100% discount for microtransit to FRT transfers, as well as peak-period fare multipliers between 1.8x and 3.5x to manage time-varying demand effectively.

preprint journal article

Flexible Agent-based Modeling Framework to Evaluate Integrated Microtransit and Fixed-route Transit Designs: Mode Choice, Supernetworks, and Fleet Simulation

Publication Date

May 29, 2024

Author(s)

Siwei Hu, Michael Hyland, Ritun Saha, Jacob Berkel, Geoffrey Vander Veen

Abstract

The integration of traditional fixed-route transit (FRT) and more flexible microtransit has been touted as a means of improving mobility and access to opportunity, increasing transit ridership, and promoting environmental sustainability. To help evaluate integrated FRT and microtransit public transit (PT) system (henceforth “integrated fixed-flex PT system”) designs, the research team proposes a high-fidelity modeling framework that provides reliable estimates for a wide range of (i) performance metrics and (ii) integrated fixed-flex PT system designs. The researchers formulate the mode choice equilibrium problem as a fixed-point problem wherein microtransit demand is a function of microtransit performance, and microtransit performance depends on microtransit demand. The team proposes a detailed agent-based simulation modeling framework that includes (i) a binary logit mode choice model (private auto vs. transit), (ii) a supernetwork-based model and pathfinding algorithm for multi-modal transit path choice where the supernetwork includes pedestrian, FRT, and microtransit layers, (iii) a detailed mobility-on-demand fleet simulator called FleetPy to model the supply-demand dynamics of the microtransit service. This paper illustrates the capabilities of the modeling framework by analyzing integrated fixed-flex PT system designs that vary the following design parameters: FRT frequencies and microtransit fleet size, service region structure, virtual stop coverage, and operating hours. The research includes case studies in downtown San Diego and Lemon Grove, California. The computational results show that the proposed modeling framework converges to a mode choice equilibrium. Moreover, the scenario results imply that introducing a new microtransit service decreases FRT ridership and requires additional subsidies, but it significantly increases job accessibility and slightly reduces total VMT.