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research report

Comparison of Low-Carbon Transport Strategies in California and Europe

Abstract

A rapid transition to a near-zero-emission transportation system in California and Europe will require rapid uptake of transportation technologies, changes in transportation services, and investments in associated infrastructure. These in turn require policy innovations. This report compares California and EU policies across three broad areas: 1) greenhouse gas (GHG) targets for 2030 to 2050; 2) progress on reducing GHG emissions from different transportation modes; and 3) current strategies and policies to achieve targets. Differences by region and across major modes are identified. Strategies cover electrification, uptake of hydrogen, aviation and shipping fuels, and modal shifts. Policies include regulatory requirements (fuel economy and CO2 standards, fuel standards); incentive programs, including taxation, feebates, and others; direct investment programs; equity considerations and environmental justice-related initiatives. In both geographies, a range of impactful policies are in place. However, these fall short of guaranteeing that targets will be met, and more actions will likely be needed. Some possibilities are presented, with a particular focus on pricing strategies.

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research report

Automated Vehicle Safety: Heavy Duty Safety Drivers and Remote Operators – Safety Metric Foundations

Publication Date

August 1, 2026

Author(s)

Camila Correa Jullian, Mollie Cohen D'Agostino, Ali Mosleh, Jiaqi Ma

Abstract

This research presents a risk-informed framework to derive metrics characterizing and tracking the safety performance of heavy-duty automated vehicles (HD-AVs) operations. A combination of traditional and novel hazard identification methods are leveraged to study potential human-system interactions in HD-AVs operations, ranging from safety drivers to remote operators.

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policy brief

When Seconds Count: Protecting Airports with Earthquake Early Warning Systems

Abstract

Airports play a critical role in emergency response and disaster recovery, yet are highly vulnerable to earthquakes. Past earthquakes in California, including the 1989 Loma Prieta, 1994 Northridge, and 2014 South Napa events, caused infrastructure damage, power outages, and operational delays at airports, affecting both safety and mobility. As seismic risk remains high across the state, improving airport resilience is critical to maintaining transportation access and supporting emergency operations. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems offer a way to reduce these risks by providing seconds to tens of seconds of advance notice before strong shaking begins. While this technology has been around for several decades across the world, the development of the ShakeAlert system has brought it to the West Coast recently, giving airports in the region the chance to be early adopters of the technology in the United States. To better understand how EEW could be used in airport settings, the research team examined its operational applications, benefits, and implementation challenges across different types of airports.

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research report

Assessing Transportation Impacts of Berkeley Hills Tunnel Disruption Under Earthquakes

Abstract

In the San Francisco Bay Area, earthquake damage to a small number of critical transportation facilities can produce regionwide mobility impacts. This report evaluates the Berkeley Hills Tunnel, a key Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) cross-hills connection, using an integrated model that links tunnel seismic performance to transportation consequences during disruption and recovery. The model couples scenario-based seismic assessment of the tunnel with screening-level fragility for substitute corridors and propagates the resulting time-dependent capacity states through a transportation simulation. At a representative recovery-stage demand of 25 percent of normal, mean cross hills travel time rises from about 9 minutes in the mildest scenario (327-year return period) to about 41 minutes in the most severe (654-year). In that severe case, a fully subscribed bus bridge can lower the mean cross-hills travel time by up to 30 percent. Uncertainty quantification identifies recovery-stage demand as the dominant source of travel-time variance and shows that unfavorable capacity combinations can nearly double travel time relative to the central estimate. Disruption falls disproportionately on transit-dependent travelers, who either endure longer travel times or pay an extra travel fee. Agencies can use the workflow to assess disruption impacts and identify likely bottlenecks, compare recovery-stage operational strategies, and target equitable service for affected populations.

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published journal article

Electric Vehicle Charging as a Monthly Budget: Portfolio Preferences Across Working Americans

Abstract

The researchers examined electric vehicle (EV) charging location preferences by investigating how drivers allocate monthly charging sessions across home, workplace, and public locations. In contrast to earlier studies that treat charging location as a one-time, discrete choice, they examined preferences for combinations of all three locations over a monthly period. They employed a multiple discrete–continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model using stated preference data from 881 employed EV drivers across the United States. Results show that 88.9% of charging decisions involve multiple locations. Home charging is preferred overall, followed by workplace and public. Drivers with private driveways, single-family homes, or solar panels, as well as older adults have higher home charging preferences, though battery storage moderates the pull of solar toward home. Urban residents rely more on public charging, while workplace charging is highly price-elastic, offering employers a demand management lever. The study underscores the importance of examining charging behavior as a portfolio allocation decision.

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published journal article

Zero-Emission Vehicle Transition in California’s Construction Industry

Publication Date

June 21, 2026

Author(s)

Shakib Kafashan, Jean-Daniel Saphores

Abstract

As climate change intensifies, transitioning the construction sector away from fossil fuels is vital to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and localized urban pollution. This paper assesses the economic feasibility of electrifying construction machinery by developing an Annualized Cost of Ownership framework that incorporates mobile charging solutions, internalizes environmental and public health operational externalities (CO2, PM2.5, NOx, and SO2), and relies on Monte Carlo simulation with Cholesky decomposition to capture the interdependencies among cost drivers. They analyze twenty distinct models of excavators and wheel loaders—the two largest contributors to construction-machinery emissions—comprising functionally equivalent diesel and battery-electric variants. Their results show that several compact electric models are already cost-competitive even without internalizing environmental and public health operational externalities. When these are accounted for, the economic advantage of electric machinery increases, particularly in denser urban areas where local air pollution damages are severe. While projected battery cost reductions further lower electric ownership costs, the magnitude of this effect is modest. However, the weak penetration of electric construction equipment in the US underscores that targeted policy interventions—such as point-of-sale rebates, green procurement mandates, tax credits, charging infrastructure subsidies, or the creation of low-emission zones and noise ordinances that advantage electric construction machinery—are needed to accelerate market adoption. These measures are particularly critical in densely populated urban areas, where internalizing local air pollution and public health externalities significantly amplifies the economic value of zero-emission machinery.

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research report

Autonomous Vehicle Safety Performance in Mixed Traffic: Insights from NHTSA Crash Data

Abstract

The safe deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs) depends on the ability of automated driving systems (ADS) to handle rare, complex, and safety-critical “edge cases.” This study develops a novel framework for identifying and analyzing such scenarios using the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) ADS crash dataset. Two complementary approaches are applied. First, large language models (LLMs) are used to directly analyze crash narratives, identifying edge cases through high-risk keyword and phrase detection and anomaly-based rarity analysis. Second, LLMs are employed to extract structured variables from narrative fields, which are then analyzed using hierarchical clustering to systematically isolate unusual crash groups. Edge cases are characterized by a higher prevalence of unusual crash partner behaviors, non-motorist involvement, roadway anomalies, and disengagement of AV systems, highlighting their distinct and atypical nature. The findings underscore the importance of focusing AV evaluation on rare, high-risk scenarios that challenge ADS performance. The study advances AV safety research and can provide a foundation for refining testing protocols, safety standards, and regulatory frameworks to better capture the operational limits of AVs.

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research report

Pathway to a Comeback: Student Transit Passes Can Drive Ridership and Equity in Post-Pandemic California

Abstract

This study investigates free and reduced fare pass programs (FRFPs) for K-12, post-secondary, and college students across California since the COVID-19 pandemic and their role in ridership recovery. A survey of 67 transit agencies, including 34 with established FRFPs, indicates that most of them maintained their FRFPs between fiscal years 2018-2019 and 2022-2023, showcasing agencies’ resilience despite financial uncertainty. LA Metro’s GoPass enrolled over 241,000 students and generated 1.2 million monthly boardings, inspiring similar initiatives. Post-pandemic, K-12 FRFPs saw significant expansion, improved funding, and a surge in ridership across participating agencies. These findings underscore the positive influence of fare-based incentives on student mobility and attendance.

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policy brief

Planning for the Next Big Earthquake: A New Tool for Transportation Agencies

Publication Date

July 15, 2026

Author(s)

Tianyu Han, Bingyu Zhao, Kelly Tang, Louise Comfort, Kenichi Soga

Abstract

Earthquakes pose a persistent and significant threat to the movement of people, goods, and services. While agencies have made progress on emergency response, planning for recovery (how quickly transportation systems can be restored after a major event) remains limited. A key challenge is that earthquake modeling and transportation system modeling have remained largely separate efforts, making it difficult for agencies to anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and coordinate recovery across jurisdictions. To address this gap, the research team worked with agency stakeholders, such as BART and Caltrans, and the geotechnical and structural earthquake engineers at UCLA to develop an integrated modeling tool that links earthquake impacts to transportation system performance and recovery. The team applied it to the Berkeley Hills corridor, a critical connection between the inner East Bay and Contra Costa County served by the BART Berkeley Hills Tunnel and the parallel Caldecott Tunnel on State Route 24. Four scenarios of increasing severity were tested, from minor tunnel damage lasting a few weeks to full closure lasting a year or more, focusing on the busy weekday morning commute. The tool is designed to support recovery planning in other corridors as well.

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published journal article

Exploring Electric Vehicle Driver Activities and Expenditure While Using DC Fast Chargers

Abstract

Public Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC) infrastructure is in its nascency, may not be profitable, and locations may not provide the amenities that consumers want. Using survey data from California this paper explores two topics related to these issues: activities of battery electric vehicle (BEV) drivers and their expenditure while using DCFC. The results show that 44.5% of BEV drivers purchase something while charging. Expenditure in establishments around chargers is $39.82 on average, while expenditure on charging is $10.35 to $16.07 on average. Most spending occurs at cafés, restaurants, or bars; grocery or convenience stores; and department or big-box stores.