Abstract

Urban wildfires require large-scale evacuations where many populations may rely on public transit. Wildfire evacuation research has largely focused on car-based evacuations, limiting empirical understanding of evacuation needs for people with limited or no car access. This study examines evacuation mode choice among transit riders during the January 2025 Palisades and Eaton wildfires in Los Angeles. Through a rapid-response post-wildfire survey targeting transit riders through the Transit app, we capture rich data on evacuees’ behavior along with the stated intentions of non-evacuees. Through bivariate comparison using Fisher’s exact tests and binary logit models, we leverage this survey data to uncover novel findings about transit riders’ evacuation behavior. Results indicate that evacuation mode choice largely reflected pre-fire mobility patterns, with prior use strongly predicting evacuation behavior. Nearly half of evacuees relied on rides from friends or family – substantially more than anticipated – highlighting the central role of informal mobility networks during fast-moving wildfire events. Transit-based evacuation was disproportionately concentrated among low-income and racial/ethnic minority riders, suggesting that structural inequities shape feasible protective actions. These findings suggest that evacuation planning in dense urban regions must move beyond assumptions of universal vehicle access and explicitly account for mobility constraints and informal ride networks under extreme conditions.