policy brief

An L.A. Story: The Impact of Housing Costs on Commuting

Abstract

Concerns about the environmental impacts of transportation have made reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) a policy priority. One way to decrease VMT is to decrease the length of commuting trips, and to get commuters out of their private vehicles. Although many studies have investigated the determinants of commuting, few have analyzed the linkage between housing costs and commuting.

To address this gap, researchers at UC Irvine developed a model that jointly explains commuting time and distance, and accounts for residential self-selection (i.e., where someone chooses to live), the effect of car ownership, and key land use characteristics around both residences and workplaces. The research focused on Los Angeles County. Census data shows that the average commute time for Los Angeles County residents pre-pandemic was 32.8 minutes, 18.8 percent higher than the national average.

policy brief

Did Extending Driver Licenses to Individuals Without Legal Presence Affect Transit Ridership in Orange County?

Abstract

Between 2014 and 2017, transit ridership in the U.S. declined by 6%, while bus transit ridership fell by 9.5%. Some regional agencies such as the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) were particularly affected. Changing socioeconomic conditions, service quality, and increased competition from transportation network companies (e.g., Uber, Lyft) are some of the reasons behind the observed decline in bus ridership. The implementation of The Safe and Responsible Drivers Act of 2013 (Assembly Bill 60) may have also impacted ridership, which directs the California Department of Motor Vehicles to issue a driver’s license to applicants who are unable to provide proof of legal presence in the United States but can provide satisfactory proof of identity as well as California residency. Some of these individuals could have been relying on transit since they could not legally obtain a driver’s license.

UC Irvine researchers examined if observed line-level changes in OCTA bus boardings could be partly attributed to AB 60, while controlling for differences in transit supply, socioeconomic variables, gas prices, and the built environment. Using fixed effects panel data models, the team analyzed monthly boardings on different OCTA route classifications—local, community, Express, and station link routes—one year before (2014) and two years after (2015 and 2016) AB 60’s implementation.

policy brief

Grocery Shopping in California and COVID-19: Transportation, Environmental Justice, and Policy Implications

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic upended many aspects of our lives, including how we shop for groceries. As grocery stores scaled back their opening hours and managed access, many shoppers switched to online shopping with home delivery (“e-grocery”) or store pick-up (“click-and-pick”). Few empirical studies published to date have explored how the COVID-19 pandemic changed grocery shopping, the extent to which these changes may last, how the pandemic exacerbated grocery store access inequalities, and how access to groceries in California is intertwined with environmental justice concerns. Moreover, most studies on this topic were based on non-random samples, which can provide quick results in a fast-changing environment but their findings are not generalizable.

This brief explores the effects of changing grocery shopping trends on disadvantaged communities in California. Using data obtained by surveying California members of KnowledgePanel,® the largest and oldest online probability-based panel representative of the U.S. population, the research team explored the frequency of grocery shopping in California and likelihood of it changing after the pandemic; the types of stores Californians shopped in for groceries during the pandemic and who used grocery delivery companies; and how / if environmental justice factors played a role in observed changes in grocery shopping.

research report

Review of California Wildfire Evacuations from 2017 to 2019

Publication Date

March 1, 2020

Author(s)

Jaquelyn Broader, Stephen Wong, Susan Shaheen

Abstract

This report summarizes the evacuations of eleven major wildfires in California between 2017 and 2019 and offers a cross-comparison to highlight key similarities and differences. The report authors also present the results of new empirical data that was collected via an online survey of individuals impacted by: 1) the 2017 October Northern California Wildfires (n=79), 2) the 2017 December Southern California Wildfires (n=226), and 3) the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n=284). These data reveal the decision-making of individuals in these wildfires including choices related to evacuating or staying, departure timing, route, sheltering, destination, transportation mode, and reentry timing. The report also presents results related to communication and messaging, non-evacuee behavior, and opinion of government response. Using the summarized case studies and empirical evidence, the authors present a series of recommendations for agencies to prepare for, respond to, and recover from wildfires.

published journal article

Dynamic Pricing for Maximizing Performance of High-Occupancy Toll Lanes Along a Freeway Corridor

Abstract

Single-occupancy vehicles (SOVs) are charged to use the high-occupancy-toll (HOT) lanes, while high-occupancy-vehicles (HOVs) can drive in them at no cost. The pricing scheme for HOT lanes has been extensively studied at local bottlenecks or at the network level through computationally expensive simulations. However, the HOT lane pricing study on a freeway corridor with multiple origins and destinations as well as multiple interacting bottlenecks is a challenging problem for which no analytical results are available. This paper attempts to fill the gap by proposing to study the traffic dynamics in the corridor based on the relative space paradigm. In this new paradigm, the interaction of multiple bottlenecks and trips can be captured with Vickrey’s bathtub model by a simple ordinary differential equation. The paper considers three types of lane choice behavior and analyze their properties. Then, it proposes a distance-based dynamic pricing scheme based on a linear combination of I-controllers. This closed-loop controller is independent of the model and feeds back the travel time difference between HOT lanes and general-purpose lanes. Given the mathematical tractability of the system model, this study analytically studies the performance of the proposed closed-loop control under constant demand and show the existence and stability of the optimal equilibrium. Finally, the results were verified with numerical simulations considering a typical peak period demand pattern.

published journal article

Environmental Impacts of Transportation Network Company (TNC)/Ridehailing Services: Evaluating Net Vehicle Miles Traveled and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts within San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C. Using Survey and Activity Data

Abstract

Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) play a prominent role in mobility within cities across the globe. However, their activity has impacts on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study quantifies the change in personal vehicle ownership and total miles driven by TNC drivers in three metropolitan areas: San Francisco, CA; Los Angeles, CA; and Washington, D.C. The data sources for this analysis comprise two surveys, one for TNC passengers (N = 8630) and one for TNC drivers (N = 5034), in addition to data provided by the TNC operators Uber and Lyft. The passenger survey was deployed within the three metropolitan areas in July and August 2016, while the driver survey was deployed from October to November 2016. The TNC operator data corresponded with these time frames and informed the distance driven by vehicles, passenger frequency of use, and fleet level fuel economies. The data from these sources were analyzed to estimate the impact of TNCs on travel behavior, personal vehicle ownership and associated VMT changes, as well as the VMT of TNCs, including app-off driving. These impacts were scaled to the population level and collectively evaluated to determine the net impacts of TNCs on VMT and GHG emissions using fuel economy factors. The results showed that the presence of TNCs led to a net increase of 234 and 242 miles per passenger per year, respectively, in Los Angeles and San Francisco, while yielding a net decrease of 83 miles per passenger per year in Washington, D.C. A sensitivity analysis evaluating net VMT change resulting from vehicle activity and key behavioral impacts revealed the conditions under which TNCs can contribute to transportation sustainability goals.

published journal article

Peaked Too Soon?: Analyzing the Shifting Patterns of P.M. Peak Period Travel in Southern California

Abstract

Daily vehicle travel collapsed with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 but largely bounced back by late 2021. The pandemic caused dramatic changes to working, schooling, shopping, and leisure activities, and to the travel associated with them. Several of these changes have, so far, proven enduring. So, while overall vehicle travel had largely returned to pre-pandemic levels by late 2021, the underlying drivers of this travel have likely changed.

This research examines one element of this issue by analyzing whether patterns of daily trip-making shifted temporally between the fall of 2019 and 2021 in the Greater Los Angeles megaregion. The research team used location-based service data to examine vehicle trip originations for each hour of the day at the U.S. census block group level in October 2019 and October 2021. The team observed notable shifts in the timing of post-pandemic PM peak travel, so the researchers examined changes in the ratio of mid-week trips originating in the early afternoon (12–3:59 PM) and the late afternoon/early evening (4–7:59 PM).

The research paper includes a clear shift in the temporal distribution of PM trip-making, with relatively more late PM peak period trip-making prior to the pandemic, and more early PM peak trip-making in 2021. The peak afternoon/evening trip-making hour shifted from 5–5:59 PM to 3–3:59 PM. The researchers also found that afternoon/evening trip-making each year is largely explained by three workplace-area/school-area factors: (1) the number of schoolchildren in a block group (earlier); (2) block groups with large shares of potential remote workers (earlier), and (3) block groups with large shares of low-wage jobs and workers of color (later, except for Black workers in 2021). The team found the earlier shift in PM peak travel between pre- and late-pandemic periods to be explained most by (1) higher shares of potential remote workers and (2) higher shares of low-wage jobs and workers of color. These findings suggest that the rise of working from home has likely led to a shift in PM peak travel earlier in the afternoon when school chauffeuring trips are most common. This is especially true for low-income workers and workers of color.

research report

Estimating Residential Electric Vehicle Electricity Use

Abstract

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles is a centerpiece of California’s strategy to reach net-zero carbon emissions, but it is not fully known how and where electric vehicles are being used, and how and where they are being charged. This report provides the first at-scale estimate of electric vehicle home charging. Previous estimates were based on conflicting surveys or extrapolated from a small, unrepresentative sample of households with dedicated electric vehicle meters. The research team combined billions of hourly electricity meter measurements with address-level electric vehicle registration records from California households, including roughly 40,000 EV owners. The average electric vehicle increases the overall household load by 2.9 kilowatt-hours per day, well under half the amount assumed by state regulators. Results imply that electric vehicles travel less than expected on electric power, raising questions about transportation electrification for climate policy.