research report

Mapping the Potential of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Across Transportation Sectors in California

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Associated Project(s)

Author(s)

Lewis Fulton, Madhu Lamichhane, Timothy Lipman, Daniel Coffee, Weilong (David) Kong

Areas of Expertise

Zero-Emission Vehicles & Low-Carbon Fuels

View research report

Abstract

This report develops a transportation hydrogen roadmap for California projected to 2045, building on previous UC ITS work, partly in cooperation with the ARCHES hydrogen hub for analysis of trucks, ports, and aviation. This study adds these modes as well as rail systems and fuel-cell light-duty vehicles, to provide a comprehensive transportation sector map of potential hydrogen use. The report focuses on a scenario of high adoption of hydrogen-fueled transport, where the modes and sectors covered would use 1000 tonnes/day of hydrogen by 2035 and 5000 tonnes/day by 2045. To 2035, about 40% of the expected growth occurs in heavy-duty trucking. Another 20% is used by other truck types, 20% by light-duty vehicles, and 20% by other modes, notably shipping and aviation. These shares remain similar out to 2045. Trucking remains the dominant driver of hydrogen demand throughout the projection period. Shipping, aviation, and rail are not expected to account for an increasing share of demand in these scenarios. The study includes a jobs analysis, led by UCLA, that estimates that the hydrogen fuel system would support around 6,000 jobs per year. Hydrogen vehicle adoption will depend on strong policy support, coordination of planning and investments, and rapid scale-up for the system to be self-sustaining, using many hundreds of tonnes per day by 2040.

policy brief

Autonomous Trucks at a Crossroads: What’s Next for California’s Economy and Workforce

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Associated Project(s)

Assessing Safety, Risk, and Labor Issues Related to Heavy-Duty Automated Vehicles

Author(s)

Mollie Cohen D'Agostino

Areas of Expertise

Intelligent Transportation Systems, Emerging Technologies, & Big Data

Abstract

California is considering whether to lift a decade-long ban on heavy-duty autonomous vehicles weighing more than 10,000 pounds. This decision comes at a time when the state’s goods-movement system faces mounting pressure to improve safety, address labor shortages, remain competitive, and meet climate and economic goals. To better understand these challenges, the research team synthesized existing academic research and conducted interviews with 18 experts across industry, labor, and government. A key takeaway from this analysis is that humans will play enduring roles in both traditional and emerging occupations in trucking. Policy choices can influence whether autonomous trucking brings about higher-quality jobs, more efficient commerce, and safer systems as opposed to fragmented industry oversight and job loss without retraining or re-employment.

research report

Impacts of LA Metro’s K-14 Fareless Transit Initiative on Youth Travel Behavior

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Associated Project(s)

Evaluating the Travel Behavior Impacts of Los Angeles Metro’s K-14 Fareless Initiative

Author(s)

Henry Bernal, David Brownstone

Areas of Expertise

Public Transit, Shared Mobility, & Active Transportation Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

View research report

Abstract

In October 2021, the Los Angeles Count Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro), in collaboration with other regional transit operators and multiple school districts across the county, launched the GoPass pilot program to offer free transit passes to K-14 students, which became permanent in early 2024. Students in a high school district in the Greater Los Angeles area were surveyed to determine the reasons students decided to participate in GoPass and how the students subjectively valued their travel preference. Students were less likely to participate in the GoPass program if they had the use of a car for trips to school but more likely if they had the option to take transit for trips leaving school. Student demographics did not play a large role in whether they participated in GoPass. Students highly value cars and trip amenities, such as onboard Wi-Fi. They subjectively value reduced travel time at $71/hour, similar to other studies among adults, but valued reduced waiting time at $98/hour, again consistent with other studies that find a high relative value for shorter waiting time. Students are not likely to be persuaded to take transit merely by making it free. Instead, school districts may consider increasing the cost for campus parking permits and reducing the number of campus parking spaces to encourage greater use of transit and shared travel modes.

policy brief

Driving Grid Readiness: Integrating Electric Vehicles into California’s Energy System

Publication Date

March 6, 2026

Author(s)

"Brooke (Schmidt) Wolfe ", Roland Hwang, Timothy Lipman

View policy brief

Abstract

As of 2024, more than 1.8 million electric vehicles (EVs) were on the road in California. The state had aimed to reach five million EVs by 2030 and require 100% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2035 through its Zero-Emission Vehicle rule; however, federal action has put this plan on hold, and California is challenging this action in court. Regardless, rapid growth in EV adoption will put new demands on California’s electricity system, requiring significant investments in both the power distribution grid and EV charging infrastructure.

Meanwhile, utilities may already be grappling with the challenges of accommodating the growing power demands from new data center facilities that support artificial intelligence. Without adequate proactive investments in distribution grid upgrades and consumer programs to manage demand, the added load from widespread EV charging (with larger, more power-hungry batteries) could potentially overload local grids, compromise reliability, degrade the quality of transformers and distribution systems and increase costs to both utility providers and ultimately ratepayers.

California utilities and policymakers must ensure that the distribution grid is prepared for this new load, while maintaining reliable electricity service and keeping costs low for ratepayers. As the EV market evolves, the distribution grid must rapidly grow into a smarter, more flexible, and more agile system. With well-designed charging programs and new technologies, additional EV charging capacity holds the promise of creating downward pressure on electricity rates. Advances in technology can support this promise through greater vehicle-to-grid integration (VGI) (i.e., strategies for altering EV charging time, power level, or location of charging (or discharging) to benefit the grid), managed charging programs, and other tools to further merge EVs into California’s grid. VGI turns EVs into interactive grid resources, enabling not only new methods to manage consumer demand but also bi-directional charging (known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G)) that can enhance grid flexibility and reliability. Investing now to modernize the grid and adopting new demand management programs can pay dividends in the future, supporting California’s ambitious EV deployment goals while keeping electricity rates affordable.

research report

What are the best ways to organize, coordinate, and deliver public transit service in large metropolitan areas? A Research Synthesis

Publication Date

March 3, 2026

Associated Project(s)

Working from Home and Travel: What Does the Future Hold?

Author(s)

Hao Ding, Brian D. Taylor, John Gahbauer, Max Schank

Areas of Expertise

Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

View research report

Abstract

This report analyzes the optimal organization of public transit service in large U.S. metropolitan areas—like Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area where multiple operators serve overlapping markets. It synthesizes over 50 international and U.S. studies of: (1) regional transit governance and coordination, (2) economies of scale and scope in transit operations, and (3) service contracting. The report finds that regions gain the most from coordinating front-end, customer-facing functions such as marketing, fares, information, and service planning through a regional association or authority, while leaving back-end service-production and delivery decentralized among sub-regional operators. This approach enhances riders’ travel experience, increases ridership, and improves cost efficiency. Conversely, large-scale transit agency mergers rarely save money and often introduce diseconomies of scale due to increased organizational complexity and higher labor costs. For some large agencies, contracting certain services coupled with strong oversight and performance-based incentives can lower costs. The report concludes that combining regional coordination of front-end, customer-facing functions with decentralized back-end service production offers an optimal blend of service coordination and cost-effectiveness.

Related Publications

policy brief

Organizing and Delivering Public Transit Service in California

published journal article

The Evolving Travel and Driving Behaviors of Older U.S. Travelers in the 21st Century

research report

Headed Out Less: Analyzing Teen and Young Adult Travel Trends in the 21st Century

policy brief

Which Pandemic-Induced Changes in Work and Commuting Are Sticking, and What Does this Mean for Public Policy?

published journal article

Going Nowhere Faster: Did the Covid-19 Pandemic Accelerate the Trend Toward Staying Home?

policy brief

Older Adults are Driving Later in Life, but Getting Out Less

policy brief

Young Adults Aren’t Leaving Home, Socializing, or Traveling as Much Post-Pandemic

policy brief

Americans are Spending More Time at Home and Traveling Less Post-Pandemic

op-ed

America is becoming a nation of homebodies

other

Press Release: Not Going Out is the “New Normal” Post-Covid, Say Experts

white paper

Vehicle Weight Safety Study Academic Report

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Author(s)

Matthew Raifman, Julia Griswold, David Brownstone, John Harvey, Amalia Stahl, Jon Atkins, Celia Johnson, Michael L. Anderson, Federico E. Vaco

View white paper

Abstract

The Vehicle Weight Safety Study provides supporting analysis for the California Transportation Commission’s study on therelationship between vehicle weight and road user injury and roadway degradation required by Assembly Bill (AB) 251, which was signed by the Governor in October 2023. To inform the work of the CTC, this report summarizes trends of road user injuries and fatalities in California and potential factors contributing to these trends (Chapter 2); summarizes trends in vehicle weight, size, and height for registered vehicles in California (Chapter 3); documents the landscape of policy solutions focused on vehicle size that might address California’s road user injuries and fatality challenge (Chapter 4); analyzes the impact of potential weight-based fees on consumer vehicle purchasing behavior (Chapter 5); and, analyzes the relationship between shifts in passenger vehicle weight and degradation of road infrastructure (Chapter 6).

research report

Development of New Privacy-preserving Method for Traffic Data Collection and Analysis: The Bathtub Model Approach

Publication Date

February 1, 2026

Associated Project(s)

Development of New Privacy-preserving Method for Traffic Data Collection and Analysis

Author(s)

Wenlong Jin, Joseph H. F. Lo

Areas of Expertise

other

View research report

Abstract

Traditional data collection approaches present significant drawbacks in computational costs and limited privacy protection. This research evaluates the bathtub traffic flow model as a privacy-preserving alternative to traditional methods that require detailed network layouts and individual trip data. The study assesses the feasibility of the bathtub model through calibration and validation using Bluebikes data from Metro Boston, focusing on three key components: the unified relative space paradigm, conservation equations, and the generalized bathtub model. Results demonstrate that the unified relative space paradigm successfully integrates network trips by considering remaining trip distances, though the trip distance distribution exhibited a log-normal pattern rather than the time-independent negative exponential distribution in Vickrey’s original bathtub model. Conservation equations for total trips and trip-miles traveled showed high accuracy, and the generalized bathtub model yielded accurate results, particularly for space-mean speed. This novel approach preserves privacy by eliminating the need for origin-destination data while still effectively capturing network dynamics.

Related Publications

policy brief

Using a “Bathtub Model” to Analyze Travel Can Protect Privacy While Providing Valuable Insights

research report

Lifecycle Emissions and Economic Analysis Tool for Hydrogen Production and Distribution Pathways for Road Transportation in California (CA-LCA-H2)

Publication Date

February 26, 2026

Associated Project(s)

Developing a Lifecycle Emissions and Economic Analysis Tool for Hydrogen Production and Distribution Pathways for Road Transportation in California

Author(s)

Stephanie Collins, Timothy Lipman, Arpad Horvath

Areas of Expertise

Zero-Emission Vehicles & Low-Carbon Fuels

View research report

Abstract

The CA-LCA-H2 tool performs a cost and greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions assessment for a hydrogen project in California by selecting the operating region and mode of production and distribution of the hydrogen through to a fuel cell trucking use case. The cost of clean hydrogen production can change significantly from the choice of production method due to the respective energy and capital costs, and in the case of electrolysis, the electricity source. The regional variations in the electricity mix can significantly affect the carbon intensity of the hydrogen produced. These components then contribute to the potential effectiveness of hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel for the use case assessment.

Related Publications

policy brief

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Drayage Trucks Can Advance California’s Climate Goals and Provide Health Benefits for Front Line Communities

policy brief

Organizing and Delivering Public Transit Service in California

Publication Date

February 26, 2026

Associated Project(s)

Working from Home and Travel: What Does the Future Hold?

Author(s)

Hao Ding, Brian D. Taylor, John Gahbauer, Max Schank

Areas of Expertise

Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

View policy brief

Abstract

California’s large metropolitan areas, particularly greater Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, are each served by dozens of distinct transit operators. This fragmentation creates a disjointed experience for many riders—who face different fares, schedules, and route maps—and can create inefficiencies in service delivery. Accordingly, international and U.S. studies of organization and coordination for insights on the most effective governance structures for public transit were reviewed. Specifically, the review considered whether consolidating transit agencies into larger entities or coordinating specific functions across existing agencies can improve ridership, cost-efficiency, and equity.

Related Publications

research report

What are the best ways to organize, coordinate, and deliver public transit service in large metropolitan areas? A Research Synthesis

published journal article

The Evolving Travel and Driving Behaviors of Older U.S. Travelers in the 21st Century

research report

Headed Out Less: Analyzing Teen and Young Adult Travel Trends in the 21st Century

policy brief

Which Pandemic-Induced Changes in Work and Commuting Are Sticking, and What Does this Mean for Public Policy?

published journal article

Going Nowhere Faster: Did the Covid-19 Pandemic Accelerate the Trend Toward Staying Home?

policy brief

Older Adults are Driving Later in Life, but Getting Out Less

policy brief

Young Adults Aren’t Leaving Home, Socializing, or Traveling as Much Post-Pandemic

policy brief

Americans are Spending More Time at Home and Traveling Less Post-Pandemic

op-ed

America is becoming a nation of homebodies

other

Press Release: Not Going Out is the “New Normal” Post-Covid, Say Experts

policy brief

Zero-Emission Vehicles Are Entering the Used Market: What Does This Mean for California?

Publication Date

February 1, 2026

Associated Project(s)

Assessing the Market for Used Electric Vehicles in California

Author(s)

Gil Tal, Ken Kurani

Areas of Expertise

Zero-Emission Vehicles & Low-Carbon Fuels

View policy brief

Abstract

Since most Californians don’t buy new cars, the used car market plays a vital role in broadening access to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), particularly among lower-income populations who may find new ZEVs financially out of reach. However, little is known about the used ZEV market. To address this gap, the research team analyzed used ZEV market characteristics, buyer demographics, and the patterns of vehicle transfers within the state. The aim of the research is to help policymakers understand how the used ZEV market contributes to California’s broader goals of reducing emissions and ensuring equitably access to clean transportation technologies.

Related Publications

research report