Abstract
This paper examines transit ridership and its role in downtowns in five San Francisco Bay Area cities pre-and post-COVID. The research analyzes transit ridership data from 2019 and 2022-24, review transit agency responses to COVID’s consequences, and examine the plans and proposals for downtowns adopted by the cities and those developed by business improvement districts (BIDs). The research draws upon focus groups that the research held with transit users and interviews that were conducted with key stakeholders to gain additional information and insights. The research finds that trips to, from and within our five case study downtowns account for a significant share of overall regional transit ridership, a finding that underscores downtown transit’s importance to state and regional goals for greenhouse gas reduction, pollution abatement, economic prosperity, and equity and inclusion. For the five downtowns, transit ridership is on a path to recovery but as of early 2024 was still falling short of pre-COVID levels, leaving transit agencies facing financial shortfalls despite service adjustments and other cost-cutting measures. The downtowns with concentrations of employment that generally depend on face to face contact (healthcare, education), are faring better than those where working remotely suffices and this appears to be largely independent of the workers’ income levels. For general offices, the longer transit trips that rail services provide have not recovered as quickly as shorter bus trips. Downtown plans for the five cities assume transit will be available and used, but have not been updated to deal with changed conditions. The case studies’ city officials and business leaders have proposed additional housing, sports events, and frequent festivals and farmers markets as ways to invigorate downtowns. While these strategies could lead to more transit use, they are unlikely to make up for the losses in office worker transit use, a consequence of increased working at home or in a hybrid home-office mode. Since recovery to previous levels may take several more years, finding ways to support transit in the meantime will be important.



