research report

The Induced Travel Calculator and Its Applications

Abstract

The National Center for Sustainable Transportation’s Induced Travel Calculator (Calculator) has generated substantial interest in the professional community as a method for estimating the additional vehicle miles traveled (VMT) induced by expanding the capacity of major roadways. The Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis (ITS-Davis) initiated a technical assistance project to support Caltrans and others in applying the Calculator. This report: (1) provides an overview of the Calculator and the induced vehicle travel effect, (2) summarizes the results from an earlier study comparing the Calculator’s estimates with other induced travel analyses, (3) describes the technical assistance efforts and outcomes, and (4) discusses plans for future improvements to the Calculator. During the project, ITS-Davis advised Caltrans as it developed its Transportation Analysis Framework to guide transportation impact analysis for projects on the State Highway System. Caltrans published the final document in September 2020, in which it recommends that the Calculator be used where possible to estimate induced VMT. ITS-Davis also advised on efforts to apply the Calculator’s elasticity-based method to estimate induced VMT from out-of-state highway capacity expansion projects, including projects in Portland, Oregon, Washington, D.C., Kenya, and China. In a follow-up project, ITS-Davis will work with Caltrans to improve the Calculator documentation to answer questions raised by Caltrans and others, explore possible technical improvements to the Calculator, and explore opportunities for assessing the validity of the Calculator’s induced VMT estimates.

presentation

Hearing of the Transportation Finance and Policy Committee of the Minnesota House of Representatives

presentation

"The Future of Travel in a Post-COVID-19 Pandemic World” during Transportation Research Board Meeting

presentation

Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Online Conference

policy brief

COVID-19 has Significantly Impacted the Mobility and Activities of the Senior Population in Contra Costa County

Abstract

Meeting the mobility needs of an aging population is one of the most substantial challenges facing California in the coming decades. The number of residents age 60 and above will grow to 13.9 million by 2050, representing over 25% of the state population. Meanwhile, the number of residents age 85 and above is expected to increase by over 70% between 2010 and 2030. In 2018, the Safe Transportation Research and Education Center (SafeTREC) at UC Berkeley conducted a survey on transportation mobility issues among older adults in Contra Costa County in California. Results indicated, among other findings, that a majority of seniors are car dependent, that some older adults miss important activities due to mobility limitations, and that most older adults want to “age in place.” A follow-up survey of 302 Contra Costa County seniors ages 60 and above was conducted in June 2020, just as the COVID-19 pandemic changed life for all residents. The follow-up survey assessed the mobility needs and changes during the Shelter-in-Place order as well as how COVID-19 was impacting other areas of their lives, such as their economic situation, views of government regulatory efforts, feelings of social isolation, and work/employment status. This brief presents findings from the follow-up survey.

policy brief

Understanding the Causes and Consequences of Local Growth Control

Abstract

In California, there has been a growing concern about rising housing cost burdens. Declining housing affordability, particularly in job-rich areas, can lead to lengthy commutes and pose significant challenges to achieving sustainable transportation and development patterns. It may also cause disproportionate impacts on vulnerable population groups by pushing members of these group to areas where jobs and other amenities are limited. Although no single factor can fully explain the rise of this critical issue, local growth control measures (e.g., growth moratoriums, density restrictions, and public facilities requirements) and other strict land use regulations have been criticized for constraining the housing supply and adding to jobs-housing imbalances. It is important to understand what motivates local growth control actions, as well as how these controls may affect land use, housing, and transportation.

research report

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Mobility Needs of an Aging Population in Contra Costa County

Abstract

In 2018, SafeTREC conducted a survey on transportation mobility issues among older adults in California. A follow-up survey planned for 2020, just as the COVID-19 pandemic changed life for all residents, was redesigned to assess mobility needs and changes during the Shelter-in-Place order and focused on COVID-19 impacts. Results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent Shelter-in-Place orders have had a major impact on senior mobility. Communications for many were restricted to phone, email, texts, social media, and video chats. Among those with a medical problem, just over 60% called a doctor or nurse line or went to a doctor’s office, while 11.2% went to an emergency room, and 8.6% did nothing. A total of 8% of respondents said they had run out of food or other important items during the Shelter-in-Place order. Rates of exercise outside the home dropped 20% between January and June 2020, and while over 60% sought outside entertainment in January 2020, by June 2020, nearly 70% accessed their entertainment online at home. Almost 80% of working respondents feared spreading or contracting COVID-19 because of their work or related transportation. Almost 20% felt a lack of companionship or closeness sometimes or often. Over 30% were worried about their current or long-term finances. A total of 84.5% strongly agreed or agreed that the Shelter-in-Place order was necessary. None of the respondents to the follow-up survey were diagnosed with COVID-19, and 88.2% were not concerned about the risk of exposure from any member of their household.

research report

Carbon Neutrality Study 1:Driving California’s Transportation Emissions to Zero

Abstract

The purpose of this study overall is to explore the policy pathways to achieve a zero-carbon transportation system in California by 2045. The purpose of this synthesis report is to describe the existing state of knowledge and policy related to energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector, especially in California. It is an interim product of the larger study, which will use this report as the baseline and policy context sections. The report comprises four sections. Section 1 provides an overview of the major components of transportation systems and how those components interact. Section 2 explores key underlying concepts in transportation, including equity, health, employment, and environmental justice (EJ). Section 3 discusses California’s current transportation-policy landscape. Section 4 analyzes projected social, environmental, and economic outcomes of transportation under a “business as usual (BAU)” scenario—i.e., a scenario with no significant transportation-policy changes.

research report

The Causes and Consequences of Local Growth Control: A Transportation Perspective

Abstract

In California, there has been a growing concern about housing unaffordability and its negative consequences, but it has remained unclear how transportation is related to this issue. This report synthesizes the literature on the causes and consequences of local growth control which has been viewed as one of the most significant barriers to expanding housing supply and thus managing travel demand more effectively. Emphasis is on what insights can be gained from the literature and what further research is needed to better understand how transportation influences and is influenced by growth control actions.