How Working from Home Could Change the Post-Pandemic Future of Travel

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

October 1, 2021 - June 30, 2022

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Samuel Speroni

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the number of persons working from home in California, which will likely have profound future implications for the environment, travel, public finance (e.g., public transit revenues, local tax base), transit operations, residential and commercial land use in addition to differential impacts based on individual workers by gender, parental status, and much more. Prior to the pandemic, only about five percent of the U.S. labor force worked primarily from home, despite four decades of predictions by transportation analysts that large-scale “telecommuting” was just around the corner. Yet between February and April of 2020, the share of the labor force working from home skyrocketed to well over 50 percent in response to public health orders designed to contain the pandemic. While no one expects the share of those working from home to remain that high as the pandemic recedes, there is considerable debate among experts on just how many workers will return full-time to employment sites, how many will split their working hours between home and a work site, and how many will remain working at home permanently. The answer to this question has enormous consequences for owners and developers of commercial and residential property, and transportation planners of all stripes. This research synthesizes literature on the relationship between working from home and travel. To examine this issue, the project team reviewed nearly 100 research articles, reports, and some popular accounts of telecommuting and travel prior to and during the pandemic. In conducting this review, the project team arrived at five principal findings. First, remote work increased dramatically with the onset of the pandemic and appears likely to remain elevated for many years to come. Second, while not everyone can work remotely, for those who have the option to do so, at least part-time, this hybrid option is extremely popular with most workers. Third, employers tend to be skeptical of the benefits of remote work, but the research does not support fears of declining productivity in the near term, and the tight post-pandemic labor market has given workers leverage to insist on remote work options. Fourth, telecommuting has long been touted as a potential solution to chronic transportation problems like traffic congestion and vehicle emissions, but the research has consistently found that it is more likely to increase, rather than decrease, overall driving among remote workers. This extra driving is due both to hybrid workers living farther from work, on average, than non-remote workers and to all remote workers making more household-serving and personal trips when they work from home. And fifth, public transit systems, in contrast to street and highway systems, have been dramatically affected by the pandemic, likely due substantially to the rise in remote work it has engendered. The future of many public transit systems, which draw an outsized share of their riders from commuters to downtowns and other major job centers, will depend on whether and to what extent those job centers re-densify with workers in the months and years ahead.

Pandemic-related Shifts in Work, Travel, and Transit Use: Implications for Public Policy

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

July 1, 2022 - October 31, 2023

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Project Summary

While the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically affected travel and transportation systems, driving has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, even as a significantly larger share of the workforce works from home full- or part-time. However, there have been significant changes in the timing and patterns of car travel since before the pandemic. Moreover, public transit systems have been especially hard hit, and riders have proven slow to return. While transit use by those unable to drive (who are more likely poor, immigrants, people of color, and/or disabled) has substantially recovered since the shutdowns in the spring of 2020, daily commuting to and from major employment centers collapsed and is just beginning to recover. The shifts in motor vehicle travel and the more dramatic changes in public transit use are both likely related to workplace changes, as the number of remote and hybrid workers has increased. The longer-term effects of the pandemic on travel remain uncertain, as do the appropriate policy responses to changing traffic patterns broadly, and to depressed transit ridership specifically. Public transit is a key transportation pillar of California’s climate and equity goals, which will be harder to meet with driving up and transit riding down.

To examine late-pandemic shifts in trip timing, this project analyzed smartphone location data to track the location and timing of vehicle trips on streets and highways in Greater Los Angeles. Specifically, this study compares the average number of trip origins for each hour of the day in all 10,783 census block groups in Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties in October 2019 and October 2021. The project then estimated a series of statistical models to examine the factors associated with both the levels of and changes in the timing of afternoon peak-period trip-making. Following an initial analysis, this project focused on shifts in early (12 p.m.–3:59 p.m.) and late (4 p.m.–7:59 p.m.) afternoon trip-making between fall 2019 and fall 2021. The primary data comes from StreetLight, a location analytics company that provides travel datasets collected from mobile phones, GPS receivers, and other network-enabled devices. This data was augmented with information from the U.S. Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Origin and Destination Employment Statistics (LODES), and the U.S. Department of Education.

Analyzing Telecommuting and Travel in California Before, During, and After the Pandemic

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

April 1, 2022 - June 30, 2024

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Irvine

Project Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted day-to-day business and triggered massive changes in travel behavior for work and other activities. Due to social distance and travel restrictions imposed during the pandemic, teleworking has become much more prominent: a survey estimated that between February and May 2020, over one-third of the American labor force switched from in-person work to telework. The Census Pulse Survey (2020-2021) reported that 40% of households in California indicated that at least one household member substituted in-person work with telework (compared to the US national average of 37%). The pandemic provides a unique opportunity to examine the potential impacts of teleworking on travel and measure the potential effectiveness of this work arrangement as a travel demand and environmental management tool.

This study examines changes in telecommuting and the resulting activity-travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on California. A geographical approach was taken to “zoom in” to the county level and to major regions in California and to “zoom out” to comparable states (New York, Texas, Florida). Nearly one-third of the domestic workforce worked from home during the pandemic, a rate almost six times higher than the pre-pandemic level. At least one member from 35 percent of U.S. households replaced in-person work with telework; these individuals tended to belong to higher income, White, and Asian households. Workplace visits have continued to remain below pre-pandemic levels, but visits to non-work locations initially declined but gradually increased over the first nine months of the pandemic. During this period, the total number of trips in all distance categories except long-distance travel decreased considerably. Among the selected states, California experienced a higher reduction in both work and non-workplace visits and the State’s urban counties had higher reductions in workplace visits than rural counties. The findings of this study provide insights to improve understanding of the impact of telecommuting on travel behavior during the pandemic.

Telework Trends in California: Before, During, and Possibly After the Pandemic

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

April 1, 2022 - June 30, 2023

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Irvine

Project Summary

Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic and enabled by technology improvements, telework has received a big boost over the past 15 months. In addition to reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT), decreasing energy use, and lowering emissions of both air pollutants and of greenhouse gases, telecommuting has numerous potential co-benefits, including saving time (from commuting) and money (on gas and parking), increasing schedule flexibility, potentially improving work-life balance, and reducing stress (Gajendran and Harrison, 2007). To understand the extent to which telecommuting could increase because of the pandemic, this project will analyze a unique dataset on commuting and telework collected during a May-June 2021 random survey of Californians conducted by IPSOS. In addition, the research will quantify changes in VMT and in the resulting emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. Quantifying recent changes in telecommuting is important to update sustainable community strategies and for understanding the likely contribution of telecommuting in meeting California’s GHG reduction targets.

Assessing Benefits from Shifting Passenger Travel from Air to High-Speed Rail in California

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 19, 2020 - August 18, 2021

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Kaijing Ding

Project Summary

This project proposes a Synthesis Study that will assess the economic benefits and impacts shifting air passenger traffic from air to rail. The assessment will take account of recent technological, economical, political, social, and epidemiological developments. It will incorporate the latest thinking on the importance of resilience and adaptability in assessing and planning infrastructure, and emerging recognition of the need to incorporate uncertainty into analyses of long-term benefit. Finally, it will inventory HSR deployment experiences from around the world to find the claimed and realized benefits from shifting air traffic to rail, as well as the role of complementary policies to the HSR deployment itself in promoting this shift.

According to the 2015 Interregional Transportation Strategic Plan, California High-Speed Rail (HSR) is the highest transportation priority for the corridor between the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles. Many advocates view HSR as transformational and its benefits difficult to quantify, but consider reducing traffic demands on California’s roads and airports to be a major quantifiable benefit. The approaches to monetizing this benefit, while reasonable, is quite simplistic. The research team seeks a more comprehensive analysis that captures a wider set of benefit mechanisms and places confidence bounds on the benefits from each mechanism.

Drivers’ Responses to Eco-driving Applications: Effects on Fuel Consumption and Driving Safety

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 19, 2020 - December 31, 2021

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley

Project Summary

Climate change in California could have a large impact on the state’s economy, natural, and public health. One strategy to reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector is eco-driving. With the advance of connected-vehicle technologies, dynamic eco-driving uses real-time vehicle-specific information to optimize the vehicle speed and reduce fuel consumption and emissions. However, the effectiveness of eco-driving is seriously compromised by two issues: drivers’ interactions with the in-vehicle displays and lack of compliance with the real-time guidance. For the eco-driving applications to be optimally utilized and widely adopted, such challenges must be properly addressed. This project proposes to explore the two issues through a driving simulator experiment. Two types of roadways will be investigated, including local roadway with signalized intersections, and freeway stop-and-go traffic. Two well-established connectivity-based eco-driving velocity planning algorithms will be experimentally evaluated. Through findings of this project, the research team expects to provide policy makers with (1) realistic estimations of benefits of eco-driving applications; (2) countermeasures for higher compliance rate; (3) guidelines for safer interface design; and (4) guidance regarding increasing public awareness and adoption of eco-driving technologies.

Categorizing and Prioritizing Trip Types to Support California’s VMT Reduction Goals

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

October 27, 2022 - April 30, 2025

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Irvine

Project Summary

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is a well-accepted measure of the amount of travel taking place on a transportation system and thus, that system’s climate impacts and sustainability characteristics. California Senate Bill (SB) 375 establishes a process for setting regional-level targets to reduce VMT, which necessitates incorporating VMT-based analysis into transportation planning and modeling in practice. The issue is whether VMT needs to be further classified into “types of VMT” that can be incorporated into the process to provide more sensitive policy analysis. Trips differ in both their purpose and in the mode or vehicle used, and consequently, VMT can be viewed as better or worse for economic productivity and sustainability based on these characteristics. For example, some car trips can be accomplished with web-based devices. Little research has pursued this notion for policy-making purposes. Using available data on trip purposes, and on vehicle mixes (in terms of fuel usage and environmental impact) used for trips, productivity-based indices can be developed to properly assess the environmental/energy impacts of the VMT associated with broad classes of trips.

This project utilizes various data sources and an existing transportation system planning and analysis model (for a selected case study network) to develop methods for identifying and prioritizing potential VMT categories. Researchers will then use this information to evaluate the impact of different policies. This initial study will also serve as a trial for larger studies to evaluate system-wide policy implications. VMT category-based pricing, subsidy, taxation and land-use policies can be tested in selected network case studies. One simple example would be taxing VMT from electric vehicles less than gasoline powered vehicles.

Road Capacity as a Fundamental Determinant of Vehicle Travel

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

June 1, 2022 - September 30, 2024

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Susan Handy, Michael Rosen

Project Summary

Most of California’s success in reducing transportation emissions over the last 20 years can be attributed to improvements in vehicle efficiency and the adoption of lower-carbon fuels, particularly electricity. California must also reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in order to meet critical climate goals and to enjoy the many co-benefits of reduced driving, such as improved air quality, safety, and public health. Increasing active transportation and transit options are two key strategies that California regions are using to try to reduce VMT, but to date, these projects have not been able to significantly cut VMT. One potential explanation is induced travel demand. Just as adding a highway lane reduces congestion and travel times and thereby induces more people to drive, the same outcome may occur when rapid transit and bike facilities are constructed. As these facilities attract former drivers, congestion is reduced, and more or new drivers backfill the roadway capacity that was freed up. This project investigates two questions. First, to what extent are VMT reductions from transit and active transportation backfilled by induced traffic? Second, is roadway and parking infrastructure the primary, long-run determinant of VMT in congested urban areas? The second question will explore the extent to which infrastructure needs to be sized proportionately to nearby highway capacity if regional and statewide VMT and greenhouse gas reduction goals are to be realized.

Streamlining the CEQA Process in Transit Rich Areas

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

June 14, 2022 - March 31, 2024

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Davis, UC Irvine

Project Summary

California faces major policy challenges that stem in part from decades of planning for automobility. For one, the state cannot meet its ambitious decarbonization targets without reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector, which produces nearly 40 percent of California’s emissions. Substantial reductions in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are likely needed to meet the state’s climate change goals. In addition, the state is mired in a historic housing supply and affordability crisis. It ranks 49th in the United States in housing units per capita. It needs millions more units to meet demand, including 1.3 million more affordable rental units, according to one estimate. Transit oriented development (TOD), with denser housing around transit hubs, can solve both challenges—reducing driving and producing more housing. However, TOD is often difficult to achieve in practice. One frequently cited roadblock to TOD is the environmental review process under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), which can add considerable time, cost, and uncertainty to TOD plans and developments. There have been numerous attempts to exempt or provide a streamlined CEQA review process for TOD projects, including through Senate Bill (SB) 375 projects (and infill developments generally). These efforts are often “criticized for layering on so many project level restrictions that no developments succeed in meeting all the eligibility requirements.” However, there is limited empirical research on how frequently the provisions have actually been used or how successful they have been at streamlining the entitlement process for TOD projects.

This research project will explore the use and effect of the two CEQA streamlining provisions in SB 375 for TOD projects. One provision exempts qualifying transit priority projects (TPPs) from CEQA review entirely (Public Resources Code § 21155.1). The other provision streamlines CEQA review for qualifying TPPs (Public Resources Code § 21155.2). The researchers will catalog projects that have utilized these provisions, identify projects that likely could have taken advantage of SB 375 CEQA streamlining but did not, and interview planners and developers involved with a subset of both sets of projects. The outcome will be an in-depth exploration of how much SB 375 streamlining actually helps reduce the time, cost, and uncertainty of permitting TOD projects, and how it could be improved to better meet those goals.

Pandemic-related Shifts in Work, Travel, and Transit Use: Implications for Public Policy

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

July 1, 2022 - December 31, 2023

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

While the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically affected travel and transportation systems, driving has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, even as a significantly larger share of the workforce works from home full- or part-time. However, there have been significant changes in the timing and patterns of car travel since before the pandemic. Moreover, public transit systems have been especially hard hit, and riders have proven slow to return. While transit use by those unable to drive (who are more likely poor, immigrants, people of color, and/or disabled) has substantially recovered since the shutdowns in the spring of 2020, daily commuting to and from major employment centers collapsed and is just beginning to recover. The shifts in motor vehicle travel and the more dramatic changes in public transit use are both likely related to workplace changes, as the number of remote and hybrid workers has increased. The longer-term effects of the pandemic on travel remain uncertain, as do the appropriate policy responses to changing traffic patterns broadly, and to depressed transit ridership specifically. Public transit is a key transportation pillar of California’s climate and equity goals, which will be harder to meet with driving up and transit riding down. This research will investigate how metropolitan travel patterns have shifted in the late stages of the pandemic and what these shifts imply for driving and public transit use in the years ahead. The project will build on current research underway in Northern and Southern California drawing on and integrating both survey and mobile device data that reflect traveler movements before and during the pandemic. Specifically, it will look at how these pandemic-induced shifts in travel relate to the rise of working from home, how this might affect the demand for public transit in the future, and what evidence-based policy recommendations can be offered to state, regional, and local transportation agencies to better respond to and address these new patterns of travel demand.