Project Summary
California’s transition to electric vehicles will require substantial distribution grid investment. The research team’s prior work projected that 67% of distribution feeders will need capacity upgrades by 2045, totaling 25 GW and $6 to $20 billion in capital costs, with disadvantaged communities experiencing a higher fraction of feeders requiring upgrades despite lower EV adoption. Managed charging offers a potential path to reduce these costs, but its implications for electricity rates and distributional outcomes remain poorly quantified. This project extends published feeder-level framework to evaluate three managed charging scenarios: price-responsive, aggregated, and utility-managed across light-duty and medium- and heavy-duty vehicle charging statewide, with bounding estimates on vehicle-to-grid potential. For each scenario, the research team will recompute upgrade costs, electricity rate impacts, and bill impacts across customer classes, and evaluate distributional outcomes across CalEnviroScreen tiers, housing type, and renter status. Engagement with the California Public Utilities Commission and California Energy Commission throughout the project will ensure findings inform active proceedings on distribution planning, rate design, and managed charging program design.
