Supporting California’s Transition to Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicles

Overview

California’s strategy to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation rests on three complementary pillars: 1) advancing zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies, 2) transition to cleaner fuels, and 3) reducing vehicle miles traveled. These efforts are reinforced through a wide range of state, regional, and local policies and programs. However, recent federal policy changes, including the revocation of EPA waivers supporting California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule, have introduced significant uncertainty into the state’s transportation decarbonization strategy.

As California reassesses how to sustain progress under these changing policy conditions, policymakers will need better tools to understand which strategies can most effectively accelerate the transition to cleaner commercial vehicles while balancing economic, energy, and equity goals. This initiative will help identify the most effective, cost-efficient, and equitable approaches for maintaining momentum in decarbonizing its medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle fleet. The research examines the full ecosystem of zero-emission truck adoption — including fleet decision-making, charging and fueling infrastructure, vehicle technologies and total cost of ownership, and the health and equity impacts of emissions in disadvantaged communities — through an integrated, behaviorally representative modeling framework.

This research will investigate how medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles operate in California and their economics in order to better design and target policies to advance cleaner solutions.

Key Research Activities

Map fleet transition plans and model the commercial vehicle market. Work with public and private fleet operators to understand heavy-duty ZEV purchase plans, operational needs, and barriers to transition; and produce an enhanced commercial vehicle model, capturing interactions between new and used vehicle markets, charging access, and the influence of policies on fleet turnover decisions.
Analyze charging and fueling infrastructure needs along major freight corridors. Model where charging and hydrogen refueling stations may be needed through 2045, accounting for local grid capacity and upgrade feasibility in key Southern California freight corridors. Also estimate regional electricity demand, identify strategies to support small fleet transitions, and assess the potential role of hydrogen and advanced biofuels under different scenarios.
Assess heavy-duty ZEV technologies and costs. Update existing techno-economic models to project heavy-duty ZEV prices and total cost of ownership across vehicle classes and fleet types. The models will incorporate used truck markets and fleet-specific risks to help evaluate how purchase incentives influence fleet adoption decisions and to inform setting purchase incentive levels for publicly-funded programs.
Build an advanced freight simulation model for Southern California. Develop a calibrated, validated agent-based freight model that simulates commercial freight activity across Southern California. The model will integrate vehicle technologies, energy demand, and charging infrastructure scenarios to evaluate how different policy combinations affect vehicle travel, energy use, emissions, and equity outcomes.
Quantify health, air quality, and environmental justice impacts. Using model scenarios, estimate PM2.5 emissions, air quality impacts, and related health outcomes in Southern California, and combine results with disadvantaged community maps to assess how different policy scenarios affect frontline communities near major freight corridors.major freight corridors.

Initiative Leadership

Research Team Members

Supporting California’s Transition to Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicles

Overview

Research Lead

Jean-Daniel Saphores

Policy Analyst

Roland Hwang