policy brief

A California Feebate Program Can Support Transition to Zero Emission Vehiles at No Cost to Taxpayers

Abstract

The State of California has developed a range of programs to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV). California’s ZEV mandate will require 15% of vehicles sold in the state to be ZEV or transitional ZEV (TZEV) by 2025i. To encourage purchases of these vehicles, California established the Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP), which provides consumer rebates of $5,000 for fuel cell vehicles, $2,500 for battery electric vehicles, and $1,500 for plug-in hybrid electric vehiclesii. The federal government also provides a $7,500 tax credit to purchasers of qualifying electric vehicles. As ZEV sales increase, the amount of funding needed to provide rebates would need to increase as well at a cost to taxpayers under the current incentive structure. For example, selling one million battery electric vehicles in California will result in a cost of $10 billion to taxpayers (i.e., $10,000 in combined federal and state incentives multiplied by one million).
Markets and regulations are also getting out of alignment. Vehicle fuel economy and greenhouse gases (GHG) standards are becoming more stringent as oil prices are staying low. If gasoline prices stay low, as seems likely (thanks in part to tightening vehicle standards in US, Europe, and elsewhere), then consumers will have little incentive to buy a more expensive, fuel-efficient car. As vehicle fuel and GHG standards get become even more stringent, the misalignment will worsen.

policy brief

Connected and Automated Vehicle Policy Development for California

Abstract

Connected and automated vehicles (CAV) have the potential to confer large benefits to California in economic development (job creation) and in improving the operation of its road transportation network. CAV systems are likely to become one of the most important application domains for modern information technology, employing large numbers of highly skilled people in research, development and implementation wherever the companies that are developing these systems find the local environment most hospitable. The CAV systems are expected to produce significant improvements in roadway capacity, traffic flow smoothness, driving comfort and convenience, energy efficiency, pollution reduction and traffic safety.Realizing those benefits will require a serious investment of attention and resources by the State, because these technologies need nurturing to facilitate their deployment. The required actions include a mixture of investments in developing the needed knowledge base and in establishing an appropriate policy framework.

dissertation, thesis, or capstone

Crystal Balls and Black Boxes: Optimism Bias in Ridership and Cost Forecasts for New Starts Rapid Transit Projects

research report

A Literature Review: Improving How Active Transportation Demand is Modeled and Evaluated

Abstract

Local transportation agencies typically rely on traditional travel demand forecasting models that focus on highway and roadway improvements to optimize vehicular traffic.  These models are not equipped to evaluate active transportation strategies which align with current State of California policies such as reducing vehicle miles traveled to cut greenhouse gas emissions and fostering active transportation modes.  In this context, ITS at UC Irvine (ITS Irvine) was invited by the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) to propose, develop, and apply an approach to better model active transportation. This report represents the first phase of this work, which is a review of the recent literature on how to model demand for active transportation and an examination of OCTAM’s (OCTA’s own regional travel demand model) Active Transportation (AT) modeling tool to evaluate its potential for modification or incorporation into a new active transportation model. The following observations/suggestions are offered in this report: First, OCTAM Active Transportation does not include variables that could impact people’s decision to leave their vehicles at home in favor of transit. Second, a number of conditions need to be jointly met for people to walk or bike. Third, OCTAM Active Transportation does not capture residential self-selection, which could be important here as people who do not plan to walk/bike self-select into car-oriented neighborhoods.

policy brief

Price Discrimination and Market Access are not Barriers to Electric Vehicle Adoption by Low-Income Households

Abstract

Policymakers consider alternative fuel vehicles an important element of reducing urban air pollution, lowering carbon emissions and reducing overall petroleum consumption. Federal, state and local governments offer incentives to encourage consumer adoption of these vehicles. But adoption of these vehicles by African-American, Hispanic and low-income consumers has lagged behind the adoption by Asian, White and high-income consumers. As a result, incentives have tended to accrue disproportionately towards high-income households. Understanding the low-rate of adoption for certain demographic groups is of particular interest to California – SB350 requires the California Air Resources Board to study barriers to zero-emission transportation options faced by low-income consumers. The Clean Vehicle Rebate Program (CVRP) and Enhanced Fleet Modernization Program (EMFP) target these groups by offering more lucrative tax incentives to low income consumers or consumers who live in disadvantaged communities.

policy brief

What Can You Do With A County Road That You Can’t Afford to Maintain?

Abstract

Many rural county road networks were created at a time when funding was greater and rural populations were often larger than they are today. Eventually, surface treatments such as chip seals or thin asphalt were applied to many of these gravel roads to provide them with an all-weather surface. These treated surfaces were also desirable because conventional gravel roads are dusty, often develop washboarding quickly, and have high rates of gravel loss—which result in unsafe and uncomfortable conditions and greater damage to vehicles and crops. Today funding to maintain these low=volume roads has dried up, and this has led to the frequent development of deep potholes that create dangerous vehicle- and freight-damaging conditions. And while some road networks can be abandoned, most of these roads are still needed to
support the economic needs of tax-paying residents, by serving agriculture, forestry, and recreation area access.
A solution to this problem, called unpaving using engineered gravel roads, has been developed in South Africa and has been implemented by UCPRC/CCPIC researchers in several counties in California. Unpaving
involves pulverizing the existing surface of a gravel road and any granular base layers below it, and importing additional granular material as needed. The grindings and any additional granular material are checked in
the laboratory with simple and inexpensive tests to determine the amount of additional fines or clay material that needs to be added—typically less than five percent by total weight of aggregate—to ensure that the now unsealed wearing course will be tightly bound and not susceptible to
washboarding or excessive dust. The supplementary gravel and fines are spread on top of the existing road, mixed in place with a recycler (note that recycling depth can often be adjusted to incorporate a small amount of the subgrade material if it is suitable as an alternative to trucking in
fines), then shaped with a grader and compacted to finish up with a four to five percent cross-slope. A chemical treatment (stabilizer or dust palliative/fines preserver) can be applied during mixing or after the road has been compacted to seal the surface, which will increase the time
between grader maintenance work and lower the rate of gravel and fines loss. The resulting compacted surface layer creates the engineered gravel road that will be much smoother than the old distressed surface treatment/asphalt road, and if the correct grading and clay content is achieved and the road is correctly shaped, the surface will effectively shed water to prevent ponding and the formation of potholes.

policy brief

Can We Advance Social Equity with Shared, Autonomous and Electric Vehicles?

policy brief

Three Transportation Revolutions: Synergies with Transit

policy brief

Governance: Who’s in Charge Here?