research report

Simulating Life with Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles through a Naturalistic Experiment with Personal Drivers

Abstract

Forty-three households in the Sacramento region representing diverse demographics, modal preferences, mobility barriers, and weekly vehicle miles traveled (VMT) were provided personal chauffeurs for one or two weeks to simulate travel behavior with a personally owned, fully autonomous vehicle (AV). During the chauffeur week(s), the total number of trips increased on average by 25 percent, 85 percent of which were “zero-occupancy” (ZOV) trips (when the chauffeur is the only occupant). The average VMT for all households increased by 60 percent, over half of which came from ZOV trips. VMT increased most in households with mobility barriers and those with less auto-dependency but least in higher VMT households and families with children. Transit, ride-hailing, biking, and walking trips dropped by 70 percent, 55 percent, 38 percent, and 10 percent, respectively. The results highlight how AVs can enhance mobility, but also adversely affect the transportation system.

policy brief

More Public Charging Infrastructure Alone Will Not Increase Electric Vehicle Sales

Publication Date

August 3, 2022

Author(s)

Adam Davis, Debapriya Chakrabortys, Kelly Hoogland, Ken Kurani, Scott Hardman

Abstract

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, are an important technology for decarbonizing transportation and reducing urban air pollution. A lack of public charging infrastructure is frequently cited as a primary barrier to continued, widespread PEV market growth. Public and private stakeholders are investing in public charging infrastructure, in part because they hope the presence of more infrastructure will encourage consumers to purchase PEVs. However, public charging infrastructure can only affect PEV sales if people—especially those who are not already PEV owners—see it, and by seeing it become more likely to consider purchasing a PEV. Researchers at UC Davis examined this relationship. They used data from a survey administered in the first quarter of 2021 of approximately 3,000 California car-owning residents, as well as data on PEV registrations and public charger locations. They modeled the relationships between multiple variables.

research report

Steering California’s Transportation Future: A Report on Possible Scenarios and Recommendations

Abstract

To investigate possible future transportation and land use scenarios for California as well as their likely precipitating policies and potential consequences, the team convened a panel of 18 experts and used a novel variation of the Delphi method to systematically explore four specific scenarios and probe the desirability and likelihood of each. The scenario that panel members collectively thought most desirable for California (one with diverse transportation options and higher-density development) was also the one they thought least likely to materialize by 2050. This report describes the findings of the three surveys and two meetings that the method entailed and summarizes some of the discussions among panelists. The report includes reflections on the salient but unexpected finding that panelists viewed trust in government as both critical to effecting the scenario they considered most desirable and also lacking to such an extent that pursuing that desirable outcome could cause unintended consequences or outright failure. Accordingly, the report discusses possible implications and outlines policy recommendations for improving both processes and conditions that can instill in California’s government more trust, without which a future of multimodal transportation and higher-density, mixed land uses is unlikely to succeed.

research report

Assessment of Maintenance Strategies for Bio-stabilization of Mudslides on Wildfire-affected Slopes

Publication Date

August 3, 2022

Author(s)

Ingrid Tomac, "Jonathon Chavez de Rosas "

Abstract

Wildfires in California have increased due to climate change, poor forest maintenance, and human factors. Post-wildfire mudflows frequently occur during rain events on burn scars due to loss of vegetation, change of surface morphology, and soil surface hydrophobicity. Spreading Xanthan gum biopolymer on slopes after wildfires may mitigate the risk of extensive erosion of hydrophobic soil layers during rain. Experiments test identified rain intensities from 15 mm/hr to 50 mm/hr and seven natural rain events on a separate set of experiments on fine, medium, and coarse sand slopes 10° to 25°. Different approaches to Xanthan gum application are considered. Surficial erosion occurs due to rain and is extreme in untreated slopes in all three sand types. Sprinkling surfaces with pure Xanthan gum leads to erosion as well. However, when xanthan gum is mixed with sand in small quantities and wetted, gel-like connections form between sand particles, which prevents further erosion when allowed to harden. Experiments focused on cured Xanthan gum and sand mix covers yielded a better understanding of coupled conditions necessary for successful erosion mitigation and the advantages and limitations of the proposed approach. Furthermore, practical guidelines for improving burned scars are recommended.

policy brief

Exploring Future Scenarios for Transportation and Land Use in California

Abstract

What will California’s transportation and land use future look like? Will Californians gain more mobility and housing options that support the state’s economic, social, and climate goals? Or will the car continue to shape what cities look like and how people get around in them? These questions are important because how Californians live and move in the future will be shaped by investments and policies made today.The California 100 Initiative is exploring California’s future across many realms of public life, and they tasked the UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies with mapping plausible futures of California’s transportation and land use systems. As part of this work, we developed a modified Delphi method and conducted a series of surveys and panel discussions with 18 experts. We presented panelists with four possible scenarios — two distinct land use futures intersecting with two transportation futures (see Figure 1). Their consensus opinion was that the most desirable scenario (“Easy to Get Around without a Car”) is also the least likely to materialize, due to faults in the political planning process. Despite promising state policies to increase transportation choices, problematic local land use politics and patterns appear likely to yield a future scenario (“Lots of Travel Choices, but Most Will Drive”) that continues car dependence and chronic congestion, absent a significant rebuilding of government trust and capacity

book/book chapter

The Impacts of Bus Use on COVID-19 Dispersion

Abstract

This research examines how bus use impacts the transmission of the COVID-19 virus in urban areas, focusing on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Los Angeles County. Using data from the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority on station-level ridership in October 2019, April 2020, and October 2020, we impute station-level ridership for other months in our data and map these to 231 Countywide Statistical Areas (CSAs) in Los Angeles County, which are used by the Los Angeles Department of Public Health to report community COVID-19 transmission. We obtain CSA-specific COVID-19 case counts between March 16, 2020, and January 31, 2021, to create a monthly panel of bus ridership and COVID-19 cases. After using a dynamic panel regression, our findings provide no evidence that increased ridership levels or trip lengths are associated with a higher incidence of COVID-19 at the CSA level in Los Angeles County in the period between June 2020 and January 2021.

book/book chapter

Workers and the Post-COVID Transportation Gig Economy

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced the demand for ride-hailing services but saw a sharp increase in e-commerce, grocery, and restaurant delivery services. As the economy recovers and demand increases, several issues are emerging. The tension between companies that wish to keep drivers as independent contractors, but which hope that large enough numbers of them return to the industry, and drivers who increasingly demand to be considered as employees will likely lead to more attractive labor contracts, and perhaps even unionization in the future. Prices for ride-hailing and delivery services are increasing rapidly, rendering the savings relative to the now mostly defunct taxi industry and traditional package delivery industries near zero. While that will lead to a reduction in demand, no one knows how much that reduction will be and how long it will last. This chapter addresses three overarching themes dominating analyses of these industries. The first is labor, the second is safety, and the third is environmental impacts.

book/book chapter

Pandemic in the Metropolis: Transportation Impacts and Recovery

Abstract

This book brings together reports of original empirical studies that explore the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on urban mobility and transportation and the associated policy responses. Focusing on the California region, the book draws on this local experience to formulate general lessons for other regions and metropolitan areas.

The book examines how the COVID-19 pandemic has had different impacts on vulnerable populations in cities. It explores the pandemic’s impacts on the transportation industry, in particular public transit, but also on other industries and economic interests that rely on transportation, such as freight trucking, retail and food industries, and the gig-economy. It investigates the effect of the viral outbreak on automobile traffic and associated air quality and traffic safety, as well as on alternative forms of work, shopping, and travel which have developed to accommodate the conditions it has forced on society.
With quantitative data supported with illustrations and graphs, transportation professionals, policymakers and students can use this book to learn about policies and strategies that may instigate positive change in urban transport in the post-pandemic period.

policy brief

What Can Be Done to Speed Up Building Approval for Multifamily Housing in Transit-Accessible Locations?

Abstract

California’s legislature has attempted to address the state’s housing affordability crisis in recent years by adopting numerous laws encouraging new development in transit-accessible and/or jobs-rich areas, but the evidence concerning the impacts of these laws on housing development remains largely anecdotal. In particular, policymakers lack adequate information concerning: (1) the types of neighborhoods where developers are more likely to build; and (2) the causes of delays in approvals for proposed projects in jobs-rich and transit-accessible areas. In new research, scholars from UC Irvine and UC Berkeley address this problem by drawing on a unique project-level dataset, the Comprehensive Assessment of Land Use Entitlements (CALES), to analyze development projects including five or more residential units that were approved for development from 2014 through 2017 in six cities: Inglewood, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Pasadena, Redondo Beach, and Santa Monica.

research report

Factors Affecting Development Decisions and Construction Delay of Housing in Transit-Accessible and Jobs-Rich Areas in California

Abstract

Recent state legislation addresses California’s housing affordability crisis by encouraging new development in transit-accessible and/or jobs-rich areas. But policymakers lack key information about the effects of laws and plans on developers’ decisions about whether and where to build housing, and factors contributing to delays in receiving government development approvals in target areas. Drawing on a unique dataset detailing all residential projects of five units or more that were approved from 2014 through 2017 in selected California jurisdictions, this project analyzes how project attributes and transportation-related factors affected infill housing construction. The research team finds that in cities with extensive transit infrastructure, new projects were generally located in parts of the city with high proximity to transit, but that proximity to rail stops or high-frequency bus stops was not associated with extreme delays in project approval compared to all projects in general. The only factors related to extreme delay are the percentage of land within a half-mile radius of dedicated single-family housing and whether a multiunit project required a rezoning or general plan amendment, the latter of which is associated with a 326% increase in the odds of a project being extremely delayed. The paper’s findings suggest that cities could expedite transit-accessible housing development by ensuring that general plans and zoning accommodate multifamily development near transit.