Abstract
Many methods exist for engaging experts in interactive groups to explore, clarify, and/or decide on various issues. In an investigation of four possible future scenarios concerning transportation and land use in California, researchers at UCLA developed a novel “hybrid policy Delphi” method for use with a panel of 18 experts. Through this process, panel members discussed and reflected on the scenarios in multiple ways. The scenario they considered most desirable they also deemed least likely to occur, and they foresaw the likely trajectory of California transportation and land use leading to less desirable scenarios. The mix of discussion and questionnaires traded the benefit of anonymity for the benefit of exploratory, interactive discussion. In addition, the use of surveys before and after meetings allowed the research team to track changes in panel opinion on a central question and discuss the survey results at meetings, at the cost of greater administrative effort.
