Abstract

Between 2014 and 2017, transit ridership in the U.S. declined by 6%, while bus transit ridership fell by 9.5%. Some regional agencies such as the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) were particularly affected. Changing socioeconomic conditions, service quality, and increased competition from transportation network companies (e.g., Uber, Lyft) are some of the reasons behind the observed decline in bus ridership. The implementation of The Safe and Responsible Drivers Act of 2013 (Assembly Bill 60) may have also impacted ridership, which directs the California Department of Motor Vehicles to issue a driver’s license to applicants who are unable to provide proof of legal presence in the United States but can provide satisfactory proof of identity as well as California residency. Some of these individuals could have been relying on transit since they could not legally obtain a driver’s license.

UC Irvine researchers examined if observed line-level changes in OCTA bus boardings could be partly attributed to AB 60, while controlling for differences in transit supply, socioeconomic variables, gas prices, and the built environment. Using fixed effects panel data models, the team analyzed monthly boardings on different OCTA route classifications—local, community, Express, and station link routes—one year before (2014) and two years after (2015 and 2016) AB 60’s implementation.