published journal article

Traffic Trumps All: Examining the Effect of Traffic Impact Analyses on Urban Housing

Abstract

Traffic impact analysis (TIA), which estimates the nearby traffic effects of proposed land development, tends to bias against higher-density developments in urban areas where traffic is often heavy and travel alternatives plentiful. This has important implications for housing supply and affordability, suburban sprawl, and private vehicle dependence. We examine the understudied implications of TIA on housing by drawing on empirical evidence from distinct bodies of research in the transportation and land use planning literature to describe the mechanisms through which TIA may affect housing markets. We conclude that TIAs likely have negative effects on both urban housing production and affordability.

policy brief

Traffic Trumps All: Examining the Effect of Traffic Impact Analyses on Urban Housing

Abstract

Traffic impact analyses (TIA) are widely used by local governments to assess the traffic impacts of proposed land use developments. TIAs are often measured in terms of expected changes to traffic flows through nearby intersections using a metric called “level of service” (LOS). This process tends to be biased against higher-density developments in urban areas where traffic is already congested and travel alternatives are plentiful. Researchers have found that the projected traffic impacts of developments in already built-up areas tend to be overestimated, which leads to higher traffic impact fees and related costs associated with the TIA process. Often, local residents use such analyses as evidence to oppose new developments on traffic grounds. The result is that TIAs can help discourage new housing production in built-up areas where demand is greatest, which likely exacerbates the housing affordability crises in places like California.In essence, the logic of TIAs is that the human activities and the built environment in cities should vary to keep nearby traffic flowing smoothly. The fundamental problem with LOS-based TIAs is that they measure vehicle mobility and not the more fundamental goals of economic and social accessibility. While California has been a national leader in changing the metric by which traffic impacts are evaluated under the California Environmental Quality Act, from LOS to vehicle miles of travel effects, LOS-based analyses of development proposals are still typically conducted by local governments — even in the Golden State.This study reviewed and synthesized research on TIAs and their effects on land use planning, and found that mobility-focused transportation planning likely contributes to the housing affordability crisis plaguing many places. Further, research shows that gradually shifting away from mobility-centered metrics, like LOS, and toward more accessibility-centered evaluation tools, will enable more comprehensive assessments of development impacts, which could help ease California’s housing affordability crisis.

policy brief

Sources of and Gaps in Public Transit Ridership Data

Abstract

Public transit in the United States is ailing. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, transit ridership fell by more than 800 million annual transit trips, or about 7.5%, between 2014 and 2019. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020 only compounded these losses. Both before and during the pandemic, the changes in transit ridership were uneven, varying across metropolitan areas, built environments, times of day, days of the week, trip purposes, operators, modes, and directions.With high-quality, accessible, up-to-date data, practitioners and researchers can diagnose the causes of America’s transit ridership woes, as well as evaluate and recommend possible cures. The availability of detailed transit data, disaggregated across a number of axes, is more important than ever to the recovery of the transit industry and the mobility of those who rely on it. Moreover, data about transit use can answer pressing questions beyond patronage declines, including analyses of transportation equity, evaluations of proposed capital and operating improvements, inquiries into the effects of private shared mobility services, and projections of emissions and pollution, among others. All of these topics rely on a growing — though still incomplete and often incompatible — set of transit data sources collected in different ways, from different sources, on different timeframes

policy brief

Environmental Reviews Fail to Accurately Analyze Induced Vehicle Travel from Highway Expansion Projects

Publication Date

January 1, 2021

Author(s)

Abstract

Induced travel is a well-documented effect in which expanding highway capacity increases the average travel speed on the highway, which in turn reduces the perceived “cost” of driving and thereby induces more driving. This increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increases congestion (often back to pre-expansion levels) and air pollutant emissions, reducing or eliminating the purported benefits of the expansion. Yet highway expansion projects continue to be proposed across California, often using congestion relief—and sometimes greenhouse gas reductions—as a justification for adding lanes. These rosy projections about the benefits of highway expansion projects indicate that the induced travel effect is often not fully accounted for in travel demand models or in the projects’ environmental review process.With this problem in mind, researchers at the University of California, Davis developed an online tool to help agencies estimate the VMT induced annually by adding lanes to major roadways in California’s urbanized counties. The researchers also applied the calculator to estimate the vehicle travel induced by five highway expansion projects in California that had gone through environmental review within the past 12 years. They then compared their estimates with the induced travel analysis completed for the projects’ actual environmental impact assessments. This policy brief summarizes findings from that research, along with policy implications.View the NCST Project Webpage

policy brief

Raising Truck Speed Limits in California Could Increase Mobility But May Also Increase Crashes

Publication Date

January 1, 2021

Author(s)

Michael Zhang, Sarder Rafee Musabbir

Abstract

Highway speed limits inherently represent a tradeoff between safety and mobility. While higher speed limits shorten travel times and foster economic benefits (especially for the trucking and logistics industries), they can also increase the likelihood and severity of crashes, as higher vehicle speeds require longer stopping distances and generate more energy during a collision. Highway speed limits are increasing nationwide. While there is no consensus on the optimal speed limit (Figure 1), research generally shows that lower speed limits reduce the frequency and severity of crashes. Likewise, there is mixed evidence on whether a universal speed limit (trucks and passenger vehicles subject to the same speed limit) or a differential speed limit (trucks subject to a lower speed limit than passenger vehicles) is safer. While some evidence indicates that setting lower speed limits for heavier trucks that are slow to stop has safety benefits, other research suggests that differential speed limits create bottlenecks that may actually cause more crashes as cars attempt to overtake slower trucks. California is one of only seven states that set differential speed limits.

research report

Sources of and Gaps in Data for Understanding Public Transit Ridership

Abstract

This report presents and reviews the available sources of data on public transit riders and ridership. The research team intends it to be a resource for those who manage or simply wish to understand U.S. transit. In conducting this review, the team considers the advantages and disadvantages of publicly available data on transit from a variety of public and private sources. The research team also considers as well the relatively scarcer and less available sources of data on other providers of shared mobility, like ride-hail services, that compete with and complement public transit, as well as pieces the team sees as missing from the transit analytics pie. The research paper concludes by discussing how data gaps both align with existing inequities and enable them to continue, unmeasured, and how the COVID-19 pandemic has made closing these gaps all the more important.

research report

Future of Public Transit and Shared Mobility: Scenario Planning for COVID-19 Recovery

Abstract

In 2020, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic enveloped the world, leading to a public health crisis that profoundly changed all aspects of society, especially multiple sectors of transportation such as public transit and shared mobility. With so much uncertainty about the future of travel, the transportation sector needs to move rapidly to shape the nature of public transit and shared mobility services during the COVID-19 recovery period. Consequently, the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies (UC ITS) and the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Executive Committee launched a scenario planning exercise from June to September 2020 involving 36 transportation experts. The exercise resulted in a series of policy options and research directions across three timeframes (i.e., within 12 months, one to three years, and four to six years) that could guide the recovery of the public transit and shared mobility industries. This report offers several key takeaways. First, external forces beyond COVID-19 (e.g., economy, political will, etc.) will significantly drive the future of public transit and shared mobility and determine the effectiveness and feasibility of any policy strategies. Second, while public transit and shared mobility face a dire future in the short run, steps can be taken immediately to reduce the effects of the current crisis, while also laying the groundwork for more sustainable transportation in the future beyond COVID-19. Actions taken to only address the current crisis will not prepare public transit and shared mobility for the future. Finally, future policies and actions will not be effective without in-depth analysis and development. Research and lessons learned from demonstration and pilot projects will be critical for crafting policies, identifying all positive and negative outcomes, and shaping actions toward a future transportation system that is more resilient, socially equitable, and environmentally friendly.

policy brief

Navigating the Shift: Critical Insights of California Fleet Operators into Zero-Emission Technologies

Abstract

California is committed to transitioning heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) from diesel to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) like battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) by 2045, and in certain cases much sooner. Achieving this goal requires substantial efforts from various sectors, including vehicle manufacturers, infrastructure developers, and governments. It is particularly important to understand the perspectives of HDV fleet operators, as their viewpoints and willingness to adopt ZEVs will be critical to California’s success in this transition.
To better understand the perspective of fleet operators, we conducted in-depth interviews with 18 California HDV fleet operators, across various sectors and fleet sizes, on the viability of zero-emission fuels and vehicles over the next 10 to 20 years and the main motivators for, and barriers to, procuring ZEVs.

policy brief

Affordable Housing Residents in San Diego County Are Generally Satisfied With Transit Service, but There is Room for Improvement

Publication Date

January 1, 2025

Author(s)

Josh Newton, Jennifer Nations, Haven Lo

Abstract

The State of California has increasingly considered the housing and environmental crises together by encouraging affordable housing development in transit rich areas. As such, municipalities are encouraging the creation of affordable housing near transit lines and metropolitan planning organizations are being called on to preserve transit-accessible affordable housing at the regional level. While much effort has gone into advocating for affordable housing in transit rich areas, research has yet to evaluate the experience of low-income residents at such sites. In turn, we surveyed 192 residents at six affordable housing sites geographically spread throughout San Diego County to understand their transportation experiences. All the developments were 100 percent affordable, contained at least 50 units, and provided both multifamily and senior housing.

policy brief

Robo-Taxis Are Likely to Increase Job Accessibility, Especially Among Low-Income Households

Abstract

After years of research and development, companies are now operating fully driverless shared-use automated vehicle-enabled mobility services (SAMS) or “robo-taxis“ in Arizona and California. SAMS offer several potential benefits to travelers and society including reducing vehicle ownership, parking demand, congestion, crashes, energy consumption, and emissions, as well as increasing roadway capacity, mobility, and accessibility. Moreover, previous research by our team found that SAMS can provide significant job accessibility benefits to workers in California. To better understand the equity implications of the job accessibility benefits from SAMS, we analyzed the distribution of SAMS benefits across different segments of the population (e.g., low- vs. high-income, young vs. old).
To measure the accessibility benefits of SAMS, we use the logsum of a hierarchical work destination and commute mode choice model—a monetary measure of consumer surplus consistent with microeconomic and utility maximization theories. If a new commute mode (e.g., SAMS) is made available to travelers, and that new mode is competitive with existing modes in terms of travel time and travel cost, then the new mode will improve a traveler’s job accessibility. For more information, please see our previous study on measuring the job access benefits of SAMS2.