research report

The Spatial Dilemma of Sustainable Transportation and Just Affordable Housing: Part II, Low-income Housing Tax Credits

Publication Date

September 1, 2022

Author(s)

Allie Padgett, Anne Yoon, Chhandara Pech, Jacob Wasserman, Paul Ong, Tiffany Green

Abstract

This study examines the spatial distribution of Low-income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) units to understand whether geographic patterns and trends are consistent with climate change and equity goals. The analysis compares the location of LIHTC units in 2012 and net changes from 2012 to 2019 with a number of transportation, environmental, and racial and economic equity metrics. Unit locations are, at best, somewhat more sustainable than the state overall, with slightly lower-skewing vehicle miles traveled and better walkability, though low transit accessibility. What environmental gains there were, though, come at the cost of higher exposure to pollution. LIHTC units are also concentrated in disproportionately low-income neighborhoods and neighborhoods of color, with worse access to economic opportunity. The findings reveal an inherent structural dilemma in whether the LIHTC program is able to simultaneously achieve climate and equity goals.

research report

Simulating Life with Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles through a Naturalistic Experiment with Personal Drivers

Abstract

Forty-three households in the Sacramento region representing diverse demographics, modal preferences, mobility barriers, and weekly vehicle miles traveled (VMT) were provided personal chauffeurs for one or two weeks to simulate travel behavior with a personally owned, fully autonomous vehicle (AV). During the chauffeur week(s), the total number of trips increased on average by 25 percent, 85 percent of which were “zero-occupancy” (ZOV) trips (when the chauffeur is the only occupant). The average VMT for all households increased by 60 percent, over half of which came from ZOV trips. VMT increased most in households with mobility barriers and those with less auto-dependency but least in higher VMT households and families with children. Transit, ride-hailing, biking, and walking trips dropped by 70 percent, 55 percent, 38 percent, and 10 percent, respectively. The results highlight how AVs can enhance mobility, but also adversely affect the transportation system.

research report

Steering California’s Transportation Future: A Report on Possible Scenarios and Recommendations

Abstract

To investigate possible future transportation and land use scenarios for California as well as their likely precipitating policies and potential consequences, the team convened a panel of 18 experts and used a novel variation of the Delphi method to systematically explore four specific scenarios and probe the desirability and likelihood of each. The scenario that panel members collectively thought most desirable for California (one with diverse transportation options and higher-density development) was also the one they thought least likely to materialize by 2050. This report describes the findings of the three surveys and two meetings that the method entailed and summarizes some of the discussions among panelists. The report includes reflections on the salient but unexpected finding that panelists viewed trust in government as both critical to effecting the scenario they considered most desirable and also lacking to such an extent that pursuing that desirable outcome could cause unintended consequences or outright failure. Accordingly, the report discusses possible implications and outlines policy recommendations for improving both processes and conditions that can instill in California’s government more trust, without which a future of multimodal transportation and higher-density, mixed land uses is unlikely to succeed.

policy brief

Exploring Future Scenarios for Transportation and Land Use in California

Abstract

What will California’s transportation and land use future look like? Will Californians gain more mobility and housing options that support the state’s economic, social, and climate goals? Or will the car continue to shape what cities look like and how people get around in them? These questions are important because how Californians live and move in the future will be shaped by investments and policies made today.The California 100 Initiative is exploring California’s future across many realms of public life, and they tasked the UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies with mapping plausible futures of California’s transportation and land use systems. As part of this work, we developed a modified Delphi method and conducted a series of surveys and panel discussions with 18 experts. We presented panelists with four possible scenarios — two distinct land use futures intersecting with two transportation futures (see Figure 1). Their consensus opinion was that the most desirable scenario (“Easy to Get Around without a Car”) is also the least likely to materialize, due to faults in the political planning process. Despite promising state policies to increase transportation choices, problematic local land use politics and patterns appear likely to yield a future scenario (“Lots of Travel Choices, but Most Will Drive”) that continues car dependence and chronic congestion, absent a significant rebuilding of government trust and capacity

book/book chapter

Pandemic in the Metropolis: Transportation Impacts and Recovery

Abstract

This book brings together reports of original empirical studies that explore the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on urban mobility and transportation and the associated policy responses. Focusing on the California region, the book draws on this local experience to formulate general lessons for other regions and metropolitan areas.

The book examines how the COVID-19 pandemic has had different impacts on vulnerable populations in cities. It explores the pandemic’s impacts on the transportation industry, in particular public transit, but also on other industries and economic interests that rely on transportation, such as freight trucking, retail and food industries, and the gig-economy. It investigates the effect of the viral outbreak on automobile traffic and associated air quality and traffic safety, as well as on alternative forms of work, shopping, and travel which have developed to accommodate the conditions it has forced on society.
With quantitative data supported with illustrations and graphs, transportation professionals, policymakers and students can use this book to learn about policies and strategies that may instigate positive change in urban transport in the post-pandemic period.

research report

Factors Affecting Development Decisions and Construction Delay of Housing in Transit-Accessible and Jobs-Rich Areas in California

Abstract

Recent state legislation addresses California’s housing affordability crisis by encouraging new development in transit-accessible and/or jobs-rich areas. But policymakers lack key information about the effects of laws and plans on developers’ decisions about whether and where to build housing, and factors contributing to delays in receiving government development approvals in target areas. Drawing on a unique dataset detailing all residential projects of five units or more that were approved from 2014 through 2017 in selected California jurisdictions, this project analyzes how project attributes and transportation-related factors affected infill housing construction. The research team finds that in cities with extensive transit infrastructure, new projects were generally located in parts of the city with high proximity to transit, but that proximity to rail stops or high-frequency bus stops was not associated with extreme delays in project approval compared to all projects in general. The only factors related to extreme delay are the percentage of land within a half-mile radius of dedicated single-family housing and whether a multiunit project required a rezoning or general plan amendment, the latter of which is associated with a 326% increase in the odds of a project being extremely delayed. The paper’s findings suggest that cities could expedite transit-accessible housing development by ensuring that general plans and zoning accommodate multifamily development near transit.

policy brief

What Can Be Done to Speed Up Building Approval for Multifamily Housing in Transit-Accessible Locations?

Abstract

California’s legislature has attempted to address the state’s housing affordability crisis in recent years by adopting numerous laws encouraging new development in transit-accessible and/or jobs-rich areas, but the evidence concerning the impacts of these laws on housing development remains largely anecdotal. In particular, policymakers lack adequate information concerning: (1) the types of neighborhoods where developers are more likely to build; and (2) the causes of delays in approvals for proposed projects in jobs-rich and transit-accessible areas. In new research, scholars from UC Irvine and UC Berkeley address this problem by drawing on a unique project-level dataset, the Comprehensive Assessment of Land Use Entitlements (CALES), to analyze development projects including five or more residential units that were approved for development from 2014 through 2017 in six cities: Inglewood, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Pasadena, Redondo Beach, and Santa Monica.

research report

Employing a Modified Delphi Approach to Explore Scenarios for California’s Transportation and Land Use Future

Abstract

There are many methods for engaging experts in interactive groups to explore, clarify, and/or decide on various issues. In an investigation of possible future transportation and land use scenarios for California, the research paper used techniques common to several methods and developed our own variation, a “hybrid policy Delphi,” for use with a panel of 18 experts. The research team applied it to explore the policies that would lead to these scenarios and the consequences that would result from them. Through our process, panel members discussed and reported on the future scenarios they considered most desirable and also the scenarios they considered most likely to materialize by 2050. Panelists reported that the scenario they considered the most desirable was also least likely to occur and that the likely trajectory of California transportation and land use policies and practices will lead to the scenario panelists considered less desirable. This report reflects on the processes behind reaching these panel conclusions, a five-stage sequence of two meetings and three online questionnaires. Our mix of discussion and questionnaires traded the benefit of anonymity (common in Delphi methods) for the benefit of exploratory discussion (used in workshops, focus groups, and the nominal group technique). In addition, our use of surveys before and after meetings allowed tracking changes in panel opinion on a central question (scenario likelihood) and discussing survey results at meetings, at the cost of greater administrative effort. The paper discusses the results of this effort, reflects on how well our combination of methods worked and concludes with a discussion of limitations and future directions.

policy brief

How Well Are Newly Sited K-12 Schools Incorporating Vehicle Miles Traveled Mitigation Measures?

Abstract

In response to California law (SB 743, Chapter No. 386, Statutes of 2013), school districts are encouraged to use vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as criteria when evaluating the transportation impacts of new school construction, and identify feasible mitigation measures that eliminate or substantially reduce VMT generated by the new construction. To better understand the implications of this new law on school siting decisions, researchers at UC Berkeley analyzed 301 new schools constructed between 2008 and 2018 with respect to four VMT mitigation measures identified by the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) known to minimize VMT – proximity to high quality transit areas (HQTA), proximity to roads with bicycle facilities, proximity to electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, and walkability scores.

published journal article

Longitudinal Analysis of COVID-19 Impacts on Mobility: An Early Snapshot of the Emerging Changes in Travel Behavior

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a huge disruption worldwide with direct and indirect effects on travel behavior. In response to extensive community spread and potential risk of infection, during the early stage of the pandemic, many state and local governments implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions that restricted non-essential travel for residents. This study evaluates the impacts of the pandemic on mobility by analyzing micro panel data (N = 1,274) collected in the United States via online surveys in two periods, before and during the early phase of the pandemic. The panel makes it possible to observe initial trends in travel behavior change, adoption of online shopping, active travel, and use of shared mobility services. This analysis intends to document a high-level overview of the initial impacts to spur future research to dive deeper into these topics. With the analysis of the panel data, substantial shifts are found from physical commutes to teleworking, more adoption of e-shopping and home delivery services, more frequent trips by walking and biking for leisure purposes, and changes in ride-hailing use with substantial variations across socioeconomic groups. The social and environmental implications of these findings are discussed and suggestions for effective policy and directions for future research are made in the conclusion.