Remote work, online shopping, and streaming surged during the pandemic and remain high today, changing how people and goods move. This project synthesizes research on post-pandemic travel patterns and interviews transportation leaders and equity advocates to explore how policies and investments should evolve to meet new demands while supporting environmental and equity goals.
research report California’s housing affordability and transit ridership crises are heavily influenced by how cities zone for new development. Cities often face a choice between targeted corridor-based upzoning, which allows more housing along main roads, and more expansive area-based upzoning, which opens surrounding neighborhoods to growth. This project compares how these approaches affect housing supply, affordability, and transit ridership in several California metro areas. Using detailed zoning and land use data, it will estimate where new housing is most likely to be built and its potential to support equitable transit access, housing affordability, and walkable communities.
In July and August of 2020, a research team of four graduate students from UC Berkeley’s Department of City and Regional Planning conducted interviews with directors and other high-level staff representing several of California’s metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to gather information on the achievements and challenges associated with the implementation of SB 375. Key takeaways from this effort include: 1) MPOs are not requesting additional authorities or oversight of local land use decisions; 2) MPOs use funding as “carrots” to incentivize local plans to align with regional goals, and many MPOs desire more discretionary funding and priority-specific funding; 3) some MPOs want to focus on greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies, such as telecommuting, active transportation, and technological advancement, in order to meet their GHG emission targets; 4) MPOs want the State to develop policies in ways that acknowledge distinct planning nuances and economic and geographic contexts across regions; 5) the process of developing and submitting regional plans to the State for review is staff-intensive and technically complex for MPOs, which takes away from the agencies’ capacity to focus on implementation and other work; 6) Senate Bill 375 has empowered MPOs to consider more deeply the relationship between land use and transportation; and 7) as a result of Senate Bill 375, there is now increased communication and engagement between the MPO and a broader set of stakeholders.
This project reviewed and summarized existing studies on the effects e-bicycling has on car travel, characteristics of e-bike incentive programs, and opportunities for increasing e-bicycling in California. The project found evidence from a variety of research studies indicating that e-bicycling, more so than conventional bicycling, substitutes for car travel. For example, several studies document approximately 35-50% of e-bike trips would have been made by car if an e-bike had been unavailable. In addition, e-bike incentive programs are rare in the U.S. but widespread in Europe with many lessons to offer California. For example, a California e-bicycling incentive program could be implemented in many forms such as a rebate to the buyer or a subsidy to e-bike dealers. Evaluating participants’ vehicle miles traveled reductions will be challenging but can be done with before-and-after travel surveys including data from passive GPS recording and odometer readings. The incentive amount in Europe (20-33% of purchase price) may be a good starting point for California; however, incentive caps may need to be different from those in Europe given the recent rise in e-bike retail prices. Also, e-bikes have numerous co-benefits (e.g., improving access to jobs and increasing physical activity) and should be considered in any cost-benefit analysis of an e-bike incentive program.
In implementing Senate Bill 743, developers of proposed projects – such as real estate or transportation infrastructure – will need to change how they analyze the project’s potential impacts on transportation under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). CEQA requires lead agencies to analyze project impacts in advance and mitigate significant ones where feasible. To date, transportation impacts have been measured by a project’s effect on automobile “level of service” in the immediate vicinity. But recent legal and proposed regulatory changes in California now require a shift to analyzing a proposed project’s impact on regional vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In some cases, on-site mitigation of VMT impacts may be straightforward. But in other cases, cities, counties or regions may want to develop regional strategies to mitigate VMT using off-site, VMT-reducing projects, facilitated by VMT “mitigation banks.” This project will conduct a legal analysis to assess the prospects under existing state law for establishment of local or regional VMT mitigation strategies, including VMT mitigation banks. These mitigation structures and strategies could allow project developers to support off- site, but regionally beneficial, VMT-reducing projects as a means to mitigate impacts. The research could also include recommendations for new regulations or legislation to implement or improve VMT mitigation strategies.
Infill rail transit stations are added along an already built line or set of lines between existing stations. Such stations are relatively low cost because they take advantage of existing lines and services. They can support additional ridership in the short term by increasing station accessibility and also may support growth in the form of added economic activity, infill development, or redevelopment and revitalization, further increasing accessibility and ridership. In turn, growing ridership may support higher levels of service (larger trainsets, more frequent service) on the lines served. Existing activity centers and neighborhoods may be strengthened by the increased accessibility an infill station provides. New housing and economic development opportunities around infill stations can be substantial if the station location is well chosen, local government policies and community members support growth, and existing owners can expand or developers can secure suitable sites for new construction. On the other hand, economic opportunities can be limited if there is community opposition to growth, local policies are impediments, or there is limited interest in investing in the area from the business and development community. Unwanted neighborhood changes including displacement due to rising property values may be an issue. Transportation level of service plays a role; lines with limited service will offer lower development potential than lines with high levels of service. Also, because adding a station involves added deceleration, dwell time, and acceleration time to existing trips, there is a small negative impact on existing riders due to the added stop. For this project, researchers will examine the costs and benefits of infill transit stations. The team considers transport capital, operating, and maintenance costs, costs to existing riders of additional trip duration due to added stop(s), and benefits to existing and new riders of improved accessibility (reduced travel time and costs) from both origins and to destinations. This project further considers economic development potential and social environmental impacts of infill stations. Researchers present evidence drawn primarily from U.S. experience with infill transit stations in the Boston, Chicago, Washington, and San Francisco Bay Area metropolitan areas. Finally, the research team applies the evidence to assess the potential cost and benefits of an infill station in the Shinn Station area in the East Bay near the Union City and Fremont, CA, border, linking Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) and Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) services.
By 2030 the older adult population in California is expected to nearly double to over 8.6 million people. Many if not most older adults will reduce and eventually stop driving for medical and non-medical reasons, which in turn can impact mental health and activities including accessing needed medical care. In order to plan for these mobility changes and to support healthy aging in California, this proposed project will build upon work that the research team has conducted in California (funded by National Institute of Health and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) and nationally with members from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Healthy Aging Network (funded by the Federal Transit Administration) to understand the mobility needs of older adults in California. A comprehensive literature review is proposed followed by a representative survey of the aging adult population to assess: (i) mobility needs, (ii) impact of emerging technology on mobility, and (iii) impact of neighborhood characteristics on mobility. Through contracting with established survey companies, the team has conducted successful surveys of representative samples of the California population.
The population of California is aging as life expectancy increases and birth rates decline. Projections from the U.S. Census Bureau show that by 2030, the number of seniors in California will increase to 10.6 million, almost a quarter of the state population. Closely related, but far less studied, is the aging of the workforce as the population ages and many older people delay retirement either because they enjoy working or depend upon earned income to meet their needs. From a recent low of less than 6 percent of the working population, the share of employed Americans who are older than age 60 has climbed to over 10 percent of all workers and is projected to exceed 13 percent of the employed population by the middle of the next decade. The objective of this study is to determine, using data from the California Household Travel Survey, whether there is a relationship in California between mobility (e.g. access to an automobile, the physical ability to drive, living in transit-accessible locations or proximate to business centers, and working from home) and delayed retirement. Delayed retirement will be measured as those who remain in the paid workforce past age 60. Specific research questions that will be explored include: Are the elderly who continue to work those living closer to jobs and transit routes and are they more able to drive or travel by public transit than those who have retired? Longitudinal trends will be examined using one earlier CHTS. While important statistical associations are expected to emerge from this analysis, they will not tell the whole story because it is difficult to disentangle cause from effect. Do people continue to drive or live near transit so that they can go to work or do they continue to go to work because they are able to drive or use public transit? To explore subtle causal relationships, the research team also will conduct interviews of older workers and recent retirees. The interviews will enable researchers to complement the statistical findings with insights from qualitative descriptions of personal decision making about work, residence, and commuting. The results of the qualitative analysis will allow useful interpretations of and lend confidence to the results of the quantitative analysis.
research report 
