research report

Rail Transit Ridership Changes in COVID-19: Lessons from Station Area Characteristics

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on public transit ridership in the United States, especially for rail transit. Land use, development density, and the pedestrian environment are strongly associated with station-level transit ridership. This study examines how these characteristics affect transit ridership pre- and post-COVID and how they differ across station types based on longitudinal data for 242 rail stations belonging to Bay Area Rapid Transit, San Diego Metropolitan Transit System, Sacramento Regional Transit, and LA Metro between 2019 and 2021.

The research team found an overall 72% decrease in station-level ridership, but changes were not uniform. Station areas with a higher number of low-income workers and more retail or entertainment jobs tend to have lower ridership declines, while areas with a large number of high-income workers, high-wage jobs, and higher job accessibility by transit had more ridership losses. When comparing station area ridership and activity changes based on mobile phone user data, ridership declined more drastically than activity across all four rail systems, which implies that rail transit riders switched to other modes of transportation when accessing the station areas. Given these findings, it is likely that rail transit services oriented toward commute travel, especially core station areas with jobs for higher-income workers, will continue to have an uneven recovery, posing critical implications for transit resilience planning and equity in the post-pandemic era. Considering sources of funding other than passenger fares to sustain rail transit, strategizing to reinvent and reinforce downtowns as destinations, and shifting rail transit services to appeal to non-commute travel can be promising strategies to support rail transit.

published journal article

Using a Modified Delphi Approach to Explore California's Possible Transportation and Land Use Futures

Abstract

Many methods exist for engaging experts in interactive groups to explore, clarify, and/or decide on various issues. In an investigation of four possible future scenarios concerning transportation and land use in California, researchers at UCLA developed a novel “hybrid policy Delphi” method for use with a panel of 18 experts. Through this process, panel members discussed and reflected on the scenarios in multiple ways. The scenario they considered most desirable they also deemed least likely to occur, and they foresaw the likely trajectory of California transportation and land use leading to less desirable scenarios. The mix of discussion and questionnaires traded the benefit of anonymity for the benefit of exploratory, interactive discussion. In addition, the use of surveys before and after meetings allowed the research team to track changes in panel opinion on a central question and discuss the survey results at meetings, at the cost of greater administrative effort.

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Charisma Acey

Associate Professor, City and Regional Planning, IURD, UC Berkeley

Recent Projects

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Research Team:

Paul Ong (lead), Jacob Wasserman, Douglas Houston, Margaretta Lin, Jesus M. Barajas, Charisma Acey

UC Campus(es):

UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UC Irvine, UCLA

Research Team:

Charisma Acey (lead), Daniel Lindheim, Margaretta Lin, Andre Soucy, Hillary Nguyen Pham, Elizabeth Joe, Keyanna Ortiz-Cedeno

UC Campus(es):

UC Berkeley

Improving Induced Travel Demand Forecasting for Different Road Types: A Research Synthesis and Meta-Analysis

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

October 1, 2024 - September 30, 2025

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Keuntae Kim

Campus(es)

UC Davis

Project Summary

The current approach to estimating the environmental impacts of roadway expansions often underestimates the induced travel effect, leading to inaccurate forecasts of vehicle miles traveled and project outcomes like greenhouse gas emissions and traffic congestion. The Induced Travel Calculator, developed by researchers at the National Center for Sustainable Transportation, helps estimate induced vehicle miles traveled, but there is debate about which vehicle miles traveled elasticities to use for accurate forecasts across different contexts. Since Caltrans began requiring induced travel analysis for capacity-expanding projects in 2020, these elasticity estimates have become increasingly important.

This research project seeks to enhance the understanding of induced vehicle miles traveled elasticity to help practitioners and policymakers more accurately account for the induced travel effect in both project-specific and policy-level decisions. Through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis, the study will synthesize findings from a broad range of induced travel research and employ meta-regression to calculate pooled elasticity estimates. This approach will facilitate the examination of variability in elasticity across different roadway types, including class 1 (interstate highways) and class 2 (freeways and expressways). By analyzing these variations, the meta-regression will help uncover key factors influencing differences in induced VMT elasticity, such as geographic location, traffic conditions, and project characteristics.

Exploring Gender and Travel Complexity

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

October 1, 2023 - March 31, 2025

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

In the United States, research reveals that women tend to travel shorter distances and durations compared to men. They also often have more complex travel patterns as they balance work and household responsibilities. This distinct travel behavior creates mobility challenges that can limit women’s access to resources and opportunities. Recently, several forward-thinking California transportation agencies have started efforts to gain a better understanding of women’s travel needs. They aim to implement services and policies that cater to these needs. However, existing analyses are often limited in scope, and as a result, they underestimate the intricacies of women’s travel patterns.

This project will analyze gender-related differences in the complexity of daily travel patterns in California. The analysis will rely on data from the California add-on to the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), which includes information about all trips, modes of transportation, and purposes within a single travel day. The research will specifically focus on three aspects of complexity: i) trip complexity, which measures the number of linked destinations in a chain of trips; ii) modal complexity, which evaluates the number of different transportation modes used; and iii) spatial complexity, which assesses the geographic extent of the activity space. The study will quantify travel complexity, investigate the connection between complexity and gender, and estimate how gender relates to the key factors influencing these outcomes, such as race, income, household structure, and the presence of children. The findings from this research can provide valuable insights to transportation agencies currently involved in gender-inclusive planning efforts. Additionally, this data may justify greater attention to gender-related issues among California’s transportation agencies and organizations.

Working from Home and Travel: What Does the Future Hold?

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2023 - December 31, 2024

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Samuel Speroni, Fariba Siddiq

Campus(es)

UC Davis, UCLA

Project Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic transformed the American work landscape. Before March 2020, the majority of workers (about 95%) worked outside of their homes most of the time. In the spring of 2020, due to stay-at-home orders and new online video-communication technologies, over half of workers started working from home. Although many aspects of life have returned to pre-pandemic norms, remote work is a notable exception. As of May 2023, approximately 58% of U.S. companies now permit employees to work from home at least part of the week, indicating that remote work is here to stay. While it was hoped that telecommuting would significantly reduce vehicle travel, traffic congestion, and transportation emissions, research suggests that working from home is not associated with reduced vehicle travel. This is because home-based workers tend to swap fewer commute trips for more household-related trips, and when they do commute to work, they often live farther from their workplaces. However, the surge in remote work during and after the pandemic raises questions about the relevance of pre-pandemic research on this topic.

This project aims to address the following questions: i) Does pre-pandemic research on who works from home, in what occupations, and how they travel still hold today now that many more work from home? ii) How have commute mode shares, durations, and departure times changed, and how do these changes relate to working from home? iii) What types of neighborhoods have hosted the largest and smallest changes in traffic and transit use, and does the ability to work from home explain these patterns? This project builds on the researchers’ recent synthesis of remote work and travel, as well as their studies on transit and vehicle travel during the pandemic. It will analyze national and California data from the Public Use MicroSample to understand the demographics of those working from home and changes in commuting post-pandemic. Additionally, it will use vehicle and transit movement data from StreetLight to examine neighborhood-level changes in vehicle travel and transit use, exploring their correlation with the ability to work from home.

Working From Home and its Effects on Post-Pandemic Travel

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

November 1, 2022 - December 31, 2023

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Julene Paul, Fariba Siddiq, Samuel Speroni

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

While many aspects of life have largely returned to pre-pandemic patterns as the COVID-19 pandemic has become endemic, several aspects of travel remain unsettled and uncertain. In particular, the forced experiment of working from home for at least half of the labor force in 2020 is evolving into a new normal where perhaps a third of all workers split their work hours between office and home. This has had especially significant effects on public transit, which has traditionally carried a disproportionate share of commute trips, but these new work patterns have affected the timing and character of many other trips as well. These evolving patterns of travel may call into question many current transportation policies and plans that are premised on (now) outdated ideas about travel.

This project builds on recent projects examining: (1) research on telecommuting and travel and (2) data from the company StreetLight Data for the Southern California Association of Governments region on the shifting timing of trip-making and its implications for public transit demand. This project considers the shifts in the patterns of trip purposes and their implications for traffic and travel. For example, fewer commute trips mean fewer opportunities to combine shopping and other errands with trips to and from work. Instead, workers may be more likely to take breaks during their workdays to run errands and grocery shop. This may mean that peak hour congestion will be lower (due to fewer commute trips and to fewer errands as part of those commute trips), but more vehicle travel (due to more freestanding trips from home and less trip chaining). Such shifts, if borne out by the data, have implications for efforts to reduce both congestion (good) and increase vehicle travel (bad), and those results inform policy making in this regard.

Drayage Truck Activity and California Inland Ports

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

October 1, 2022 - March 31, 2025

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Andre Tok, Yiqiao Li

Project Summary

The ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland are the top, second and eighth busiest container ports in the United States. However, the highway networks surrounding these ports are highly congested due to drayage truck operations. Since warehouse space at the ports for transferring cargo to delivery trucks is limited, drayage trips must traverse metropolitan areas to reach scattered distribution centers. This creates significant traffic congestion and amplifies other problems like noise and air pollution in communities located nearby. While locating additional distribution centers near the ports may alleviate dock storage constraints and minimize negative impacts on local streets and communities, available land for development is scarce and prohibitively expensive. Inland “dry ports” operate as intermodal distribution facilities for loading and unloading standardized shipping containers transferred from docked ships via major highways or railroads. They can be located away from population centers to minimize their impacts on local communities and road networks, and therefore can address the traffic and community impacts of drayage truck activity. However, additional data on portside freight activities are needed to assess their potential benefits. Existing truck activity data collected by onboard telematics systems provide a picture of drayage truck trip activity but are limited and typically deployed on larger fleets and thus may not provide an accurate representation of overall drayage activity. Alternative data sources like UC Irvine’s Truck Activity Monitoring System (TAMS) show potential. It captures truck classification data from inductive loop sensors located throughout Southern California and can identify drayage trucks. However, it requires further enhancement to accurately measure drayage truck volumes along highway corridors. This study will provide a better understanding of the impacts associated with developing an inland port serving the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The team will perform a comprehensive review of studies associated with inland ports within the United States and the rest of the world. This review will provide insights on factors affecting the implementation, design, and operation of inland ports, and assess the benefits and costs of developing inland ports to serve California’s major ports. As telematics data sources represent only a small sample of drayage truck activity, the next step is to enhance the ability to measure the impacts of current drayage truck activities on the metropolitan road network. TAMS coverage is being expanded in the Inland Empire with additional site deployments through a concurrent study. This study will improve the accuracy of the truck classification model and yield a significant dataset of drayage truck activity in the Los Angeles metropolitan area and the Inland Empire to assess the potential impact of inland ports on highway congestion.

Teleworking, Travel, and Quality of Life Before, During, and After the Pandemic Across Different Population Groups in the U.S.

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

October 1, 2022 - June 30, 2024

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Campus(es)

UC Irvine

Project Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic and the imposed social distancing measures led many people to adopt telecommuting arrangements — working from home or teleworking — on a large scale. A recent survey found that, between February and May 2020, over one-third of the American labor force swapped in-person work with telework, which increased the share of remote working to nearly 50 percent of the nation’s workforce. These massive changes in work arrangements may have long-term impacts, including how work is organized, where work is performed, and how activities and travel are scheduled. If telecommuting continues it is important to know whether it results in less travel, less commute stress, and consequently a happier life.

This study explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on telecommuting (working from home) and travel during the first year of the pandemic in the United States (from March 2020 to March 2021), with a particular focus on examining the variation in impact across different geographies. The 50 U.S. states are divided into several clusters based on their geographic and telecommuting characteristics, including 6 small urban states, 8 large urban states, 18 urban–rural mixed states, and 17 rural states. Combining data from multiple sources, this study finds that nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce worked from home during the pandemic, which was six times higher than the pre-pandemic period, and that these fractions varied across the clusters. More people worked from home in urban states compared with rural states. As well as telecommuting, several activity travel trends were also examined across these clusters: reduction in the number of activity visits; changes in the number of trips and vehicle-miles traveled; and mode usage. Findings show there was a greater reduction in the number of workplace and nonworkplace visits in urban states compared with rural states. The number of trips in all distance categories decreased except for long-distance trips, which increased during the summer and fall of 2020. The changes in overall mode usage frequency were similar across urban and rural states with a large drop in ride-hailing and transit use.

Between the Forest and the Trees: Community Strategies to Transform Roadways in California’s San Joaquin Valley

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

October 1, 2022 - June 30, 2024

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Gregg Macey

Project Summary

Addressing the disparate impacts of climate change requires a better understanding of how the transportation sector can integrate community-driven processes and solutions into plans and programs in collaboration with public agencies and other stakeholders. The Community Air Protection Program, administered by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), provides a valuable case study of the promise and challenge of improving transportation equity through community-led planning efforts. Since its launch in 2018, CARB has selected 17 disadvantaged communities to develop community air monitoring plans (CAMPs) and/or community emissions reduction plans (CERPs) as directed by Assembly Bill 617 (AB 617). Although transportation emission sources feature prominently in CAMPs and CERPs (e.g., freight transport, zero-emission technologies, alternative modes), AB 617 evaluation studies have not investigated the role that transportation concerns played in community selection, goal setting, and outcome assessment. This project will conduct a retrospective evaluation of equity principles and processes employed in the selection, development, and implementation of CAMPs and CERFs in four San Joaquin Valley communities. The study will focus on communities that took part in a process led by the Central Valley Air Quality Coalition to nominate a subset of 40 communities to participate in air monitoring and emissions reduction planning through AB 617. The research team will consider the role of transportation infrastructure, emissions, and related authorities, policies, and practices as communities moved from pre-selection to design, approval, and implementation of monitoring and emissions reduction plans. The team will engage in semi-structured interviews and focus groups, content analysis and archival and interview data, legal analysis, and geospatial analysis of regulatory and community-deployed monitoring and inventory data.