Rail Transit Ridership in California: Lessons Learned from Station Area Assessments

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

February 22, 2022 - December 31, 2023

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

Emerging evidence shows that rail transit ridership has recuperated unevenly—at different rates in different places—as California has emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. Stations that serve central business districts, for example, show slower gains in rail transit passengers compared to stations with mixed income residents and mixed uses in suburban locations. It is not yet clear what is causing this difference, but this disparity signals that post-COVID ridership will be different from what was observed in the past, and some station areas will likely need to develop strategies that account for this new reality.

This study examines how various characteristics (e.g., land use, development density, the pedestrian environment) affect transit ridership pre- and post-COVID and how they differ across station types based on longitudinal data for 242 rail stations belonging to Bay Area Rapid Transit, San Diego Metropolitan Transit System, Sacramento Regional Transit, and LA Metro between 2019 and 2021. Key findings include an overall 72% decrease in station-level ridership, but changes were not uniform. Station areas with a higher number of low-income workers and more retail or entertainment jobs tend to have lower ridership declines, while areas with a large number of high-income workers, high-wage jobs, and higher job accessibility by transit had more ridership losses.

Analyzing Telecommuting and Travel in California Before, During, and After the Pandemic

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

April 1, 2022 - June 30, 2024

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Irvine

Project Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted day-to-day business and triggered massive changes in travel behavior for work and other activities. Due to social distance and travel restrictions imposed during the pandemic, teleworking has become much more prominent: a survey estimated that between February and May 2020, over one-third of the American labor force switched from in-person work to telework. The Census Pulse Survey (2020-2021) reported that 40% of households in California indicated that at least one household member substituted in-person work with telework (compared to the US national average of 37%). The pandemic provides a unique opportunity to examine the potential impacts of teleworking on travel and measure the potential effectiveness of this work arrangement as a travel demand and environmental management tool.

This study examines changes in telecommuting and the resulting activity-travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on California. A geographical approach was taken to “zoom in” to the county level and to major regions in California and to “zoom out” to comparable states (New York, Texas, Florida). Nearly one-third of the domestic workforce worked from home during the pandemic, a rate almost six times higher than the pre-pandemic level. At least one member from 35 percent of U.S. households replaced in-person work with telework; these individuals tended to belong to higher income, White, and Asian households. Workplace visits have continued to remain below pre-pandemic levels, but visits to non-work locations initially declined but gradually increased over the first nine months of the pandemic. During this period, the total number of trips in all distance categories except long-distance travel decreased considerably. Among the selected states, California experienced a higher reduction in both work and non-workplace visits and the State’s urban counties had higher reductions in workplace visits than rural counties. The findings of this study provide insights to improve our understanding of the impact of telecommuting on travel behavior during the pandemic.

Telework Trends in California: Before, During, and Possibly After the Pandemic

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

April 1, 2022 - June 30, 2023

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Irvine

Project Summary

Forced by the Covid-19 pandemic and enabled by technology improvements, telework has received a big boost over the past 15 months. In addition to reducing VMT, decreasing energy use, and lowering emissions of both air pollutants and of greenhouse gases, telecommuting has numerous potential co-benefits, including saving time (from dcommuting) and money (on gas and parking), increasing schedule flexibility, potentially improving work-life balance, and reducing stress (Gajendran and Harrison, 2007). To understand the extent to which telecommuting could increase because of the pandemic, this project will analyze a unique dataset on commuting and telework collected during a May-June 2021 random survey of Californians conducted by IPSOS. In addition, we will quantify changes in VMT and in the resulting emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. Quantifying recent changes in telecommuting is important to update sustainable community strategies and for understanding the likely contribution of telecommuting in meeting California’s GHG reduction targets.

Telecommuting and the Open Future

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2021 - June 30, 2023

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Irvine

Project Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic has generated renewed interest in how telecommuting can alter the workings of our cities and regions, but there is little guidance on how to align planning practice with the new reality. Shelter-at-home policies forced businesses to rapidly develop a telework infrastructure to continue their operations to the extent possible. In the wake of the pandemic, the prevalence of telecommuting has become the new normal, although this varies across industries. New questions arise from this rapid technological adoption. How will telecommuting growth affect our cities? Should planners be worried about telecommuting growth? How should planners deal with this proliferation?
This report synthesizes the research on telecommuting and its consequences to help planners better understand what effects may occur from the proliferation of telecommuting and what lessons can be drawn from research findings. Emphasis is on the broad relevance of telecommuting to many domains of planning, including housing, land use, community development, and inclusive place-making, while attention is paid to changes in travel demand, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and greenhouse gas emissions. The research suggests that telecommuting can occur in a variety of ways, and its impacts are largely dependent not only on the type/schedule of telecommuting but on the built environment, transit accessibility, and other amenities/opportunities the location provides. The varying impacts reported in the research can be seen as an encouragement for planners to actively create a better future rather than merely responding to the rise of telecommuting. Given the breadth of telecommuting’s impacts, systematic coordination across various planning domains will be increasingly important. This report also calls for collaboration across cities to guide the ongoing transformation induced by telecommuting not in a way that leads to more residential segregation but in a way that provides more sustainable and inclusive communities.

Identifying Solutions for Overcoming Barriers to Transit-Oriented Development

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

October 1, 2021 - December 31, 2022

Principal Investigator

Elisa Barbour

Campus(es)

UC Davis

Project Summary

The California Air Resources Board recently concluded in a report to the state legislature on progress in achieving SB 375 goals that development patterns in the state since adoption of the law run counter to achieving its objectives. In this context, and given severe housing affordability problems, policymakers need to understand how and whether localities are developing effective strategies to support affordable TOD. Localities face persistent barriers in doing so including obtaining and balancing funding for transit, active transportation, and affordable housing; designing effective programs to gain public benefits from private development; assembling land parcels; attracting market interest in certain areas; and addressing public concerns about new development. This research project will build upon a recently completed two-year research project that investigated motivations, perceived obstacles, and policy-making patterns of California cities for promoting TOD as well as public transit and active transportation. Specifically, this project will examine more deeply the barriers to TOD that California cities experience, how they overcome them, and what support they need from state and regional agencies to do so. The research team will review public policy documents and conduct interviews with city planners and other stakeholders. In addition, the research team will investigate policy tools shown to be promising based on findings from previous research, including development of Specific Plans, California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) streamlining through “tiering” from Specific Plans, density bonus programs that provide for “ministerial” project approvals, and transport-related land use strategies including reducing parking requirements and linking SB 743-required environmental review at the project level with impact fees and transportation demand management ordinances.

Stockton’s Crosstown Freeway, Urban Renewal, and Asian Americans: Systemic Causes and Impacts

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 20, 2021 - September 30, 2022

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Paul Ong, Jacob Wasserman, Christopher Hung-Do, Anne Yoon

Project Summary

Stockton underwent spatial restructuring in the decades after the Second World War, and state and local government contributed and responded to these changes by implementing connected freeway and urban renewal programs. Historical and contemporaneous xenophobia and racism placed Chinatown, Japantown, and Little Manila in their path, with these enclaves deemed blighted and subject to “slum clearance.” The choice of freeway route was racially biased. The neighborhood surrounding an unchosen route was predominantly white, whereas that of the chosen route was predominantly home to people of color. Freeway construction during the 1960s and 1970s directly displaced hundreds of people and housing units downtown—mainly people of color, particularly Asians. The communities most harmed were the Asian American enclaves, where the housing stock declined by about three quarters between 1960 and 1970. The losses were not only physical, as the freeway and redevelopment eviscerated once vibrant ethnic commercial hubs. Because of long-standing economic and political marginalization, Asian Americans were relatively powerless to prevent the destruction; nonetheless, they fought to build affordable housing for their people, protect and in some cases relocate cultural institutions, and support surviving ethnic businesses. In the long run, Stockton failed to revitalize its downtown, while destroying its cultural diversity.
This project explores the various facets and implications of this history through many lenses. The research team employs quantitative methodologies to investigate four questions: 1) whether the choice of freeway paths was racially disparate, 2) what were the number and the racial composition of the people and housing directly impacted (i.e., dislocated) by freeway construction, 3) what were the indirect impacts of freeway construction on housing units and housing costs over time, and 4) what were the associated losses from urban renewal. The team utilizes qualitative methods as well to examine the human impacts on Asian Americans residents of the area and their political response. The project contributes both academically and practically. It complements the existing literature by its focus on an often-understudied group, Asian Americans, and by making the systemic dynamics of racism central to the analyses. The findings can also help reform and improve professional practice within the transportation arena to ensure racial fairness and equity.

Which Communities Suffer the Most from Neighborhood Severance Caused by Freeways?

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 20, 2021 - December 31, 2022

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

The racial legacy of freeways has come into stark focus in the past year. A recent Los Angeles Times article calls the region’s freeway system “one of the most noxious monuments to racism and segregation in the country.” A key feature of past freeways construction has been neighborhood severance. Freeways disrupt the neighborhood street grid, creating particular hardships for pedestrians who must take circuitous routes to access transit and to walk to stores, schools, and other destinations. The impacts of disconnected streets on walking and public health are well documented, but the environmental justice dimension of connectivity has remained unexplored, as has the link between street connectivity and local planning efforts. Reducing neighborhood severance is also a key goal in Caltrans’ 2017 bicycle and pedestrian plan, Towards an Active California. The plan commits the agency to identify and improve highway crossings and to prioritize improvements based on equity criteria. The research team will test whether Black, Indigenous, People of Color (BIPOC) communities suffer greater neighborhood severance effects based on four measures of connectivity: local street connectivity, connectivity for transit access, the number of freeway crossings per mile, and the quality of those crossings (e.g., pedestrian comfort). The first two measures are based on street characteristics such as circuity and the proportion of streets that are dead-ends. The project team will also examine the strength of the relationship between these four connectivity measures and the race/ethnic composition of the neighborhoods, based on 2020 Census block-level demographic data, and on the age of the constructed freeways, to determine whether planners have become more attuned to severance effects over time. Finally, the researchers will consider where new or upgraded crossings would yield the greatest connectivity benefits, particularly in BIPOC communities, by simulating the addition of new crossings and the removal of existing crossings, to determine which improvements have the greatest potential to reconnect street networks and improve pedestrian and bicycle access to transit.

Looking Abroad to Understand the Potential Impacts of California High-Speed Rail on Economic Development, Land Use Patterns, and Future Growth of Cities

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 20, 2021 - September 30, 2023

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Basar Ozbilen

Project Summary

New transportation networks facilitate mobility and may also spur economic development. This was the case with the construction of railway and highway networks in the U.S. during the late 19th and mid-20th century, respectively. Over the past decades, a new transportation technology—high-speed rail (HSR)—has had a profound impact on urban-regional accessibility and intercity travel across Europe and East and South-East Asia. A growing literature shows that HSR systems can also benefit local and regional economies. But the economic and spatial impacts of HSR have been varied and are largely contingent on a variety of factors, as well as local planning and policy. As California is in the process of building its own HSR network, it is important to review the experience of established HSR networks abroad to understand the possible economic effects that HSR can have on regional and local economies. While the impacts of California’s HSR plan on job creation in local markets (e.g., the construction sector) and on the travel sector (e.g., forecasts for HSR travel demand) have been investigated, the possible indirect impacts on land values, tourism, firm location, and local and regional development, among others, have not garnered enough attention. This study will provide guidance for the development of California HSR by undertaking a comprehensive literature review of the economic impacts of existing HSR systems and conducting case studies of HSR station-cities in Europe. The literature review will identify the prerequisites necessary for certain positive economic outcomes for different types of station-cities. The research team will examine the impacts of HSR on construction jobs, but also on post-construction job growth, firm relocation, residential and commercial development, tourism, and population growth. The team will select several individual case studies representing different city typologies with input from the California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) and from the study’s advisory panel. The case studies will focus on station-cities that have experienced significant economic benefits since the initiation of HSR to identify how and why these benefits have occurred.

How Post-Pandemic Travel Trends May Affect Public Transit

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

October 1, 2021 - June 30, 2022

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

California’s metropolitan areas have invested heavily in improving and expanding public transit systems over the past half century. But despite demonstrable improvements in transit provision, ridership was eroding in many areas during the dozen years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, and in most places and on most systems in California since 2016. But these dips in ridership paled in comparison to the crash in patronage that coincided with the onset of the pandemic. By the fall of 2020, most transit systems had recovered to about half of their pre-pandemic ridership, but transit’s recovery largely stalled there, even as rates of driving, walking, and biking have mostly recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Research has shown that the riders who left transit during the pandemic tended to be higher income, better educated, more likely white or Asian, and had access to private motor vehicles. Spatial patterns of ridership have shifted dramatically as well, with downtowns and other major job centers losing the most riders, and low-income neighborhoods retaining the most riders. In net, the level, timing, and direction of transit travel have changed dramatically. This study draws on previous research on transit usage changes during the pandemic, and supplements previous findings with additional travel data from transit operators and mobile device services to better understand how these new patterns of transit usage are evolving as the pandemic matures and recedes. In addition, this study draws on the findings from companion research on changing work and travel patterns to project likely patterns of transit use and demand in the months and years ahead to help public transit system managers and policy makers prepare for a post-pandemic transit future.

How Working from Home Could Change the Post-Pandemic Future of Travel

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

October 1, 2021 - June 30, 2022

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Samuel Speroni

Campus(es)

UCLA

Project Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the number of persons working from home in California, which will likely have profound future implications for the environment, travel, public finance (e.g., public transit revenues, local tax base), transit operations, residential and commercial land use in addition to differential impacts based on individual workers by gender, parental status, and much more. Prior to the pandemic, only about five percent of the U.S. labor force worked primarily from home, despite four decades of predictions by transportation analysts that large-scale “telecommuting” was just around the corner. Yet between February and April of 2020, the share of the labor force working from home skyrocketed to well over 50 percent in response to public health orders designed to contain the pandemic. While no one expects the share of those working from home to remain that high as the pandemic recedes, there is considerable debate among experts on just how many workers will return full-time to employment sites, how many will split their working hours between home and a work site, and how many will remain working at home permanently. The answer to this question has enormous consequences for owners and developers of commercial and residential property, and transportation planners of all stripes. This research synthesizes literature on the relationship between working from home and travel. To examine this issue, the project team reviewed nearly 100 research articles, reports, and some popular accounts of telecommuting and travel prior to and during the pandemic. In conducting this review, the project team arrived at five principal findings. First, remote work increased dramatically with the onset of the pandemic and appears likely to remain elevated for many years to come. Second, while not everyone can work remotely, for those who have the option to do so, at least part-time, this hybrid option is extremely popular with most workers. Third, employers tend to be skeptical of the benefits of remote work, but the research does not support fears of declining productivity in the near term, and the tight post-pandemic labor market has given workers leverage to insist on remote work options. Fourth, telecommuting has long been touted as a potential solution to chronic transportation problems like traffic congestion and vehicle emissions, but the research has consistently found that it is more likely to increase, rather than decrease, overall driving among remote workers. This extra driving is due both to hybrid workers living farther from work, on average, than non-remote workers and to all remote workers making more household-serving and personal trips when they work from home. And fifth, public transit systems, in contrast to street and highway systems, have been dramatically affected by the pandemic, likely due substantially to the rise in remote work it has engendered. The future of many public transit systems, which draw an outsized share of their riders from commuters to downtowns and other major job centers, will depend on whether and to what extent those job centers re-densify with workers in the months and years ahead.