policy brief

Developing Zero-Emission Bus and Truck Markets Will Require a Mix of Financial Incentives, Sale Mandates, and Demonstration Projects

Abstract

California has a number of programs intended to encourage the introduction of zero- and near-zero emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies into the medium- and heavy-duty truck markets. Meeting the goals of these programs will require the sale of large numbers of battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell transit buses and trucks by 2025 and beyond. However, several barriers to widespread adoption of these technologies will need to be addressed, including their purchase price, utility, durability and reliability, as well as the cost of energy and the availability of refueling infrastructure. Policies such as mandates or incentives will likely be necessary to overcome these barriers and the uncertainty of adopting a new, unproven technology. These policies must make economic sense to both the bus and truck manufacturers and the vehicle purchasers if they are to be successful in the long term. To gain a better understanding of the financial barriers for ZEV bus and truck adoption, researchers at UC Davis conducted technology and cost assessments for batteryelectric and fuel cell vehicles in the medium- and heavy-duty truck sector. High-level findings and the policy implications of this research are summarized in this brief.

research report

A Review of Reduced and Free Transit Fare Programs in California

Publication Date

January 1, 2020

Author(s)

Deep Shah, Farzana Khatun, Jean-Daniel Saphores

Abstract

To gain a better understanding of the current use and performance of free and reduced-fare transit pass programs, researchers at UC Irvine surveyed California transit agencies with a focus on members of the California Transit Association (CTA) during November and December 2019. Fifty-nine agencies, representing a broad cross-section of California transit operators, responded. Three-quarters of respondents offered one or more free or reduced-fare transit pass programs in fiscal year 2018-19. While most respondents stated that free or reduced-fare transit passes increase ridership, many had concerns about the effect on their agency’s farebox recovery ratio, and to some extent on the fiscal health of their agency, though almost half of the respondents did not know the actual impacts. Those agencies offering student pass programs funded by student fees or employee programs funded by employers did not report any negative impact on ridership or on farebox recovery ratios. This confirms that free or reduced-fare transit pass programs structured like insurance programs (where a large group of potential transit riders—such as all students at a college or all employees in a large firm—periodically pays a lump sum to a transit agency while only a subset of that group actually uses transit) can be good for both riders and transit agencies. Free or reduced fare pass programs have an important role to play in transportation policy in California, but we should not ask too much for these programs. To achieve their full potential, they should be integrated into comprehensive policies to achieve California’s social and environmental goals.

research report

Improving the Distribution of Densities in Southern California

Abstract

Many of the biggest transportation challenges in Southern California arise not due to its overall density but due to the lack of concentration of densities. While recent years have witnessed increasing efforts to expand public transit services and encourage compact development in transit areas, there is a dearth of research providing support for improving the distribution of densities in the region. This project adopts a simultaneous equation modeling (SEM) approach to reveal the complexity of parcel-level (residential) land use intensification dynamics in a five-county Southern California metropolitan region with emphasis on the importance of reciprocal interactions between current and planned land use changes and the critical role of public transit accessibility. Results suggest that residential densification and upzoning processes reinforce each other. Urban residential upzoning can significantly promote the probability of parcel-level residential densification, even though it does not always lead to an immediate market response in every location. More importantly, the residential density increases are found to induce further plan/zoning modifications in nearby areas, indicating the presence of feedback loops in this dynamic relationship. There is also evidence of the positive influence of public transit accessibility. Single-family residential land parcels with greater access to high-quality transit services show a higher level of densification and upzoning probabilities when all other conditions are held constant. Such positive effects are detected not only in existing high-quality transit areas but also in locations where public transit services will be available in the future.

research report

E-commerce, Warehousing and Distribution Facilities in California: A Dynamic Landscape and the Impacts on Disadvantaged Communities

Abstract

This research paper addresses the distribution of warehouses and distribution centers (W&DCs) influenced by e-commerce, through spatial analysis and econometric modeling. Specifically, this work analyzes the concentration of W&DCs in various metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) in California between 1989 and 2016-18; and studies the spatial relationships between W&DC distribution and other demographic and environmental factors through econometric modeling techniques. The work conducts analyses to uncover common trends in W&DC distribution. The analyses used aggregate establishment, employment, and other socio-economic information, complemented with transportation-related variables. The results: 1) confirm that the weighted geometric centers of W&DCs have shifted slightly towards city central areas in all five MPOs; 2) W&DCs show a non-decreasing trend between 2008 and 2016; and 3) areas with more serious environmental problems are more likely to have W&DCs. A disaggregate analyses of properties sold and leased in one of the study regions shows a trend where businesses are buying or leasing smaller facilities, closer to the core of consumer demand. Among other factors, the growth of e-commerce sales, and expedited delivery services, which require proximity to the customers, may explain these trends. The study results provide insights for planners and policy decision-makers and will be of interest to practitioners, public and private entities, and academia. Caltrans, MPOs, and affiliated institutions of the National Center for Sustainable Transportation will directly benefit from the results as they want to avoid equity issues brought by the fast development of e-commerce, and its potential impact on W&DC distribution.

research report

Factors Affecting Demand for Plug-in Charging Infrastructure: An Analysis of Plug-in Electric Vehicle Commuters

Abstract

The public sector and the private sector, which includes automakers and charging network companies, are increasingly investing in building charging infrastructure to encourage the adoption and use of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and to ensure that current facilities are not congested. However, building infrastructure is costly and, as with road congestion, when there is significant uptake of PEVs, the research team may not be able to “build out of congestion.” As such, the research team modeled the choice of charging location that more than 3000 PEV drivers make when given the options of home, work, and public locations. The study focused on understanding the importance of factors driving demand such as the cost of charging, driver characteristics, access to charging infrastructure, and vehicle characteristics. The research team found that differences in the cost of charging play an important role in the demand for charging locations. PEV drivers tend to substitute workplace charging for home charging when they pay a higher electricity rate at home, more so when the former is free. Additionally, socio-demographic factors like dwelling type and gender, as well as vehicle technology factors like electric range, influence the choice of charging location.

research report

Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-duty Truck Technology, Markets, and Policy Assessments for California

Abstract

This report assesses zero emissions medium- and heavy-duty vehicle technologies, their associated costs, projected market share, and possible policy mandates and incentives to support their adoption. Cost comparisons indicate that battery-electric transit buses and city delivery trucks are the most economically attractive of the zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) based on their break-even mileage being a small fraction of the expected total mileage. These zero-emission vehicles using fuel cells are also attractive for a hydrogen cost of $5/kg. The most economically unattractive vehicle types for zero-emission vehicle adoption are long-haul trucks and inter-city buses. Developing mandates for buses and trucks will be more difficult than for passenger cars for several reasons, including the large differences in the size and cost of the vehicles and the ways they are used in commercial, profit-oriented fleets. The best approach will be to develop separate mandates for classes of vehicles that have similar sizes, cost characteristics, use patterns, and ownership/business models. These mandates should be coupled to incentives that vary by vehicle type/class and by year or accumulated sales volume, to account for the effects of expected price reductions with time.

research report

Assessing the Safety Implication of Alternative Speed Limits in California

Publication Date

January 1, 2020

Author(s)

Michael Zhang, Sarder Rafee Musabbir

Abstract

This project combined the statewide crash data (SWIRTS) and traffic data (PeMS) to develop statistical models to determine the safety impacts of alternative speed limits on California highways. The models examined whether various factors about crashes, including average traffic speed and truck involvement, correlated with outcomes such as crash severity. The models were then used to test the impact of four alternative speed limit policies (B-E) on the predicted number of fatal crashes and unsafe-speed-related crashes in urban and rural areas. The policies were: (A) Existing differential speed policy for cars (65 mph) and trucks (55 mph); (B) Raising the speed limit on interstates for trucks from 55 to 65 mph; (C) Raising the speed limit on interstates from 55 to 75 mph for trucks and 65 to 75 mph for cars; (D) Lowering the existing differential speed on interstates from 55 to 50mph for trucks and 65 to 60 mph for cars; (E) Raising the existing differential speed on interstates from 55 to 70 mph for trucks and 65 to 80 mph for cars. The policy analysis shows a difference in the predicted number of crashes (fatal, unsafe speed) in and between urban and rural areas. The percentage increase/decrease in predicted fatal crashes in rural areas is lower than in urban areas across all policy alternatives.

research report

Safety Implications of Automated Vehicles Providing External Communication to Pedestrians

Abstract

Automated Driving Systems (ADSs) are developing at a rapid pace and even testing on public roads, but pedestrians’ interaction with ADSs is not comprehensively understood and investigated to ensure safe operations of ADSs. The objective of this study is to investigate the effective interaction between ADSs and pedestrians. The research team developed prototype interfaces using different modalities, for example, text vs. symbol and a variety of symbols. These interfaces communicated three types of information: 1) intention of ADS; 2) instructing pedestrians what to do, and 3) ADS’s awareness of pedestrians. The team tested the interfaces through two field studies in three uncontrolled intersections with crosswalks. The Wizard of Oz method was used, in which an experimenter worked as a driver and was invisible by wearing an outfit to simulate an automated vehicle (AV). The interfaces were displayed on an LED panel mounted on the automated vehicle. Results showed external interface on the automated vehicle didn’t change the decision time for pedestrians to cross. However, the vehicle movement patterns (e.g., slowing down the vehicle speed) continued to be a significant cue for pedestrians. All participants perceived the communication of the ADS’s intent (e.g., “stopping” printed on the LED panel) and the advisory information from the ADS (e.g., an icon that indicated it was safe for pedestrians to cross); these were both more effective than trying to convey the awareness of the ADS (e.g., an icon with an open or closed eye). The subjective ratings showed positive effects of the interfaces that were easy to understand (e.g., text interface and symbol interface) as they did help pedestrians to feel safe and trustful when interacting with the ADS.

research report

Partnerships between Ridehailing Companies and Public Transit Agencies: An Exploration of Inter-agency Learning about Pilot Programs

Abstract

In early 2016 the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority implemented a pilot program in partnership with Uber and United Taxi (a local company) to provide subsidized travel for trips to and from specified public transportation stops (Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority). Since that time, similar pilots have sprung up throughout the US. Presumably, the proliferation of these pilots is due to early successes; likely measured by cost savings, increased ridership, expanded service areas, improved first/last mile connections, and increased visibility of ride-hailing services. The research team would expect the outcomes of these pilots to be shared among public transportation operators, resulting in improvements as they are implemented in new locations over time. However, much of the information that might be used to evaluate these programs is confidential or proprietary, creating challenges for public transportation operators to discuss details with others. This project aims to identify the factors informing the implementation of these pilots and the pathways by which relevant information is shared among public transportation operators. Key questions are: Do transit agencies gather information independently; from one another, academic sources, policy experts, or others? Are transit agencies primarily informed by potential ride-hailing industry partners as they consider these partnerships and programs? And how do these different pathways impact the partnerships transit agencies form with ride-hailing companies and the programs they launch?