published journal article

Estimating short-term travel demand models that incorporate personally owned autonomous vehicles

Abstract

We estimated travel demand models that incorporate a private autonomous vehicle (AV) option using revealed preference data in which personal chauffeurs simulated a personally owned AV. We investigated four components of activity-based models (ABM): activity pattern and primary destination choice, mode choice, and time of day. We compared the chauffeur week models (“AV future”) to the non-chauffeur week models (current conditions). We found no statistically significant differences in parameters of the individual activity pattern, time of day, or destination choice. For mode choice, however, while the auto constant did not change, the mean value of time decreased by 60%. As the destination choice model included the mode choice log sum, this results in longer average tour lengths. Moreover, while the trip-making propensity of individuals did not change significantly, there was a 25% increase in systemwide trips due to “AVs” (chauffeurs) being sent on errands. This points to the importance of incorporating zero-occupancy vehicle (ZOV) trips into the ABM framework. Our findings suggest that these can be incorporated via the standard ABM development process by adding as additional model components ZOV home-based tours and ZOV subtours. Relatedly, as inter-regional travel is modeled outside the ABM framework, our results indicated that modifications should be made to account for the increase in inter-regional tours, which were 54% more frequent during chauffeur weeks. While these results are from a relatively small sample of 71 individuals, they are the first such travel demand estimation results available from a field experiment, and further studies can build on our framework.

policy brief

Wildfire Evacuation Planning Can Be Greatly Enhanced by Considering Fire Progression, Communication Systems, and Other Dynamic Factors

Abstract

Wildfires have become a perpetual crisis for communities across California. For life-threatening wildfires, mass evacuation often becomes the only viable option to protect lives. Yet, looking back at recent events, including the devastating 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California, there are significant challenges associated with the evacuation process, such as multi-agency coordination, agency-resident communication, and management of extraordinarily high amounts of traffic within a short period of time. Currently, emergency planners use evacuation models that are typically based on existing traffic simulation models; however, it is increasingly clear that other factors need to be considered, such as fire progression and communication systems. To address this gap, UC Berkeley researchers constructed a framework and set of models that include the combined impacts of three dynamic processes on evacuations – fire progression, communication systems, and traffic flow. The framework and models were applied to two case studies in California: the town of Paradise and the unincorporated community of Bolinas. In the Paradise case, the scenarios were based on the 2018 Camp Fire event. For the Bolinas case, the scenarios were based on hypothetical wildfire events.

policy brief

Key Challenges in Sanitizing Transportation Data to Protect Sensitive Information

Publication Date

November 1, 2021

Author(s)

Areas of Expertise

Abstract

As new mobility services such as ridehailing and shared micromobility have grown, so has the quantity of data available about how and where people travel. Transportation data provides government agencies and transportation companies with valuable information that can be used for identifying traffic patterns, predicting infrastructure needs, informing city planning, and other purposes. However, the data may also contain sensitive information that can identify individuals, the beginning and ending points of their trips, and other details that raise concerns about personal privacy. Even if a traveler’s name and address is suppressed, adversaries could use other parts of the information such as trip origin and destination to learn an individual’s identity and their habits. Similarly, another transportation company competing with the company that collected the data could potentially steal their customer base if they can use the data to obtain proprietary information such as frequent dropoff/pick-up locations, vehicle positioning, travel routes, or algorithms for assigning vehicles to clients.

policy brief

Real-World Simulations of Life with an Autonomous Vehicle Suggest Increased Mobility and Vehicle Travel

Abstract

Fully autonomous vehicles are expected to have a profound effect on travel behavior. The technology will provide convenience and better mobility for many, allowing owners to perform other tasks while traveling, summon their vehicles from a distance, and send vehicles off to complete tasks without them. These travel behaviors could lead to increases in vehicle miles traveled that will have major implications for traffic congestion and pollution. To estimate the extent to which travel behavior will change, researchers and planners have typically relied on adjustments to existing travel simulations or on surveys asking people how they would change their behavior in a hypothetical autonomous vehicle future. Researchers at UC Berkeley and UC Davis used a new approach to understand the potential influence of autonomous vehicles on travel behavior by conducting the first naturalistic experiment mimicking the effect of autonomous vehicle ownership. Private chauffeurs were provided to 43 households in the Sacramento, California region for one or two weeks. By taking over driving duties for the household, the private chauffeurs served the household as an autonomous vehicle would. Researchers tracked household travel prior to, during, and after the week(s) with access to the chauffeur service.

research report

Sanitization of Transportation Data: Policy Implications and Gaps

Publication Date

November 1, 2021

Author(s)

Areas of Expertise

Abstract

Data about mobility provides information to improve city planning, identify traffic patterns, detect traffic jams, and route vehicles around them. This data often contains proprietary and personal information that companies and individuals do not wish others to know, for competitive and personal reasons. This sets up a paradox: the data needs to be analyzed, but it cannot be without revealing information that must be kept secret. A solution is to sanitize the data—i.e., remove or suppress the sensitive information. The goal of sanitization is to protect sensitive information while enabling analyses of the data that will produce the same results as analyses of unsanitized data. However, protecting information requires that sanitized data cannot be linked to data from other sources in a manner that leads to desensitization. This project reviews typical strategies used to sanitize datasets, the research on how some of these strategies are unsuccessful, and the questions that must be addressed to better understand the risks of desensitization.

published journal article

Glimpse of the Future: Simulating Life with Personally Owned Autonomous Vehicles and Their Implications on Travel Behaviors

Abstract

To explore potential travel behavior shifts induced by personally owned, fully autonomous vehicles (AVs), we ran an experiment that provided personal chauffeurs to 43 households in the Sacramento region to simulate life with an AV. Like an advanced AV, the chauffeurs took over driving duties. Households were recruited from the 2018 Sacramento household travel survey sample. Sampling was stratified by weekly vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and households were selected to be diverse by demographics, modal preferences, mobility barriers, and residential location. Thirty-four households received 60 hours of chauffeur service for 1 week, and nine households received 60 hours per week for 2 weeks. Smartphone-based travel diaries were recorded for the chauffeur week(s), 1 week before, and 1 week after. During the chauffeur week, the overall systemwide VMT (summing across all sampled households) increased by 60%, over half of which came from “zero-occupancy vehicle” (ZOV) trips (when the chauffeur was the only occupant). The number of trips made in the system increased by 25%, with ZOV trips accounting for 85% of these additional trips. There was a shift away from transit, ride-hailing, biking, and walking trips, which dropped by 70%, 55%, 38%, and 10%, respectively. Households with mobility barriers and those with less auto dependency had the greatest percent increase in VMT, whereas higher VMT households and families with children had the lowest. The results highlight how AVs can enhance mobility, but also caution against the potential detrimental effects on the transportation system and the need to regulate AVs and ZOVs.

research report

Assessing the Incorporation of Racial Equity into Analytical and Modeling Practices in Transportation Planning

Abstract

This report examines if and to what extent state-level transportation departments in four states incorporate race and equity considerations into transportation planning technical analyses and modeling practices, particularly for long-range transportation plans, and how such equity-infused practices can be improved. The research team examined relevant literature, reviewed statewide long-range transportation plans for California and three other states, consulted with other experts, and conducted interviews with scholars and knowledgeable agency staff and practitioners. The findings indicate widespread acknowledgment that racial disparities in transportation exist, and state agencies have expressed a strong commitment to redressing the inequalities. However, while there has been progress in creating analytical equity tools to assess transportation projects and programs, they lack standardization. There have also been few noticeable revisions to existing regional transportation planning models to incorporate equity, and the profession lags behind what is technically possible based on the work of academic researchers. Technical staff need better training in regard to equity issues and agencies should encourage greater collaboration between equity and analytical units to develop and improve frameworks to assess equity performance in plans, programs, and projects.

published journal article

Gender differences in elderly mobility in the United States

Abstract

Mobility is a critical element of one’s quality of life regardless of one’s age. Although the challenges for women are more significant than those for men as they age, far less is known about the gender differences in mobility patterns of older adults, especially in the United States (US) context. This paper reports on a study that examined potential gender gaps in mobility patterns of older adults (aged 65 years and over) in the US by analyzing data from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey. Elderly respondents were first classified into one of six clusters based on socio-demographic variables. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) was then estimated and showed that gender gaps existed in the mobility patterns of the elderly, and the differences were diverse across the different clusters. The most substantial gender gap was found in the Senior Elder with Medical Condition(s) cluster, followed by the High-income Workers cluster and the Middle-income Urban Residents cluster. In contrast, females in the Low-Income Single Elder cluster enjoyed statistically significant positive mobility differences with their male counterparts. Our results also found that female elderly in the Senior Elder with Medical Condition(s) and the Low-income Family Elder clusters suffered most after the cessation of driving, with the largest mobility gender gap in the Middle-income Urban Resident cluster. This study will help transportation planners and policymakers understand gender and other socio-demographic differences in elderly mobility. Thus, it will facilitate the development of measures to improve elderly mobility and reduce gender gaps by recognizing and addressing specific target groups’ mobility characteristics and needs rather than treating the elderly as a single potential user group.

published journal article

Deep Ensemble Neural Network Approach for Federal Highway Administration Axle-Based Vehicle Classification Using Advanced Single Inductive Loops

Abstract

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) vehicle classification scheme is designed to serve various transportation needs such as pavement design, emission estimation, and transportation planning. Many transportation agencies rely on Weigh-In-Motion and Automatic Vehicle Classification sites to collect these essential vehicle classification counts. However, the spatial coverage of these detection sites across the highway network is limited by high installation and maintenance costs. One cost-effective approach has been the use of single inductive loop sensors as an alternative to obtaining FHWA vehicle classification data. However, most data sets used to develop such models are skewed since many classes associated with larger truck configurations are less commonly observed in the roadway network. This makes it more difficult to accurately classify under-represented classes, even though many of these minority classes may have disproportionately adverse effects on pavement infrastructure and the environment. Therefore, previous models have been unable to adequately classify under-represented classes, and the overall performance of the models is often masked by excellent classification accuracy of majority classes, such as passenger vehicles and five-axle tractor-trailers. To resolve the challenge of imbalanced data sets in the FHWA vehicle classification, this paper constructed a bootstrap aggregating deep neural network model on a truck-focused data set using single inductive loop signatures. The proposed method significantly improved the model performance on several truck classes, especially minority classes such as Classes 7 and 11 which were overlooked in previous research. The model was tested on a distinct data set obtained from four spatially independent sites and achieved an accuracy of 0.87 and an average F1 score of 0.72.

policy brief

Where Do Ridehail Drivers Go Between Paid Trips? A San Francisco Case Study

Abstract

App-based ridehailing services such as Uber and Lyft have revolutionized urban travel. These services improve mobility and reduce demand for parking, but also increase vehicle travel and shift some trips away from walking and public transit.1 As a result, ridehailing has been the largest contributor to increased congestion in recent years in cities such as San Francisco.2 Ridehil services could also be contributing to traffic congestion and pollution when vehicles are out of service between paid rides. Drivers might cruise (circle around while waiting for the next paid ride) or reposition (move to another location in anticipation of the next ride request), both of which can exacerbate congestion and pollution. They might also park (either on- or off-street), which would reduce congestion and pollution but may affect parking and curbspace availability or interfere with other street activities such as drop-offs and deliveries. To gain a better understanding of ridehail driver behavior between paid rides, UC researchers evaluated over 5.3 million ridehail trips in San Francisco in November and December 2016. Each trip was divided into cruising, repositioning, and parking segments.