policy brief

Mobiliti—A New Tool to Guide Safer, More Equitable Traffic Management Strategies

Abstract

Regional studies examining transportation-related emissions and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) highlight the disproportionate safety and environmental impacts of passthrough traffic on vulnerable communities – traffic that travels through, but does not originate or end in these communities. Transportation practitioners and researchers have sought to address these inequities with locally tailored, context sensitive traffic management strategies (e.g., lowered speed limits on residential streets). However, decision makers must carefully consider the network-wide tradeoffs these strategies may introduce, which can complicate their effectiveness. This policy brief presents a network analysis method that is accessible to local and regional transportation agencies using Mobiliti, a high-performance traffic simulator currently available for research purposes. However, we demonstrate Mobiliti’s practical applications for transportation agencies. Developed by research scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Mobiliti offers traffic assignment solutions and regional simulation capabilities, allowing for high-resolution, iterative exploration of road treatments and routing strategies. Analysts can manipulate network characteristics and vehicle behavior by adjusting parameters such as lane count, speed limit, and the percentage of vehicles, to dynamically optimize travel times. These capabilities can support transportation equity evaluations by giving network managers deeper insights into the mutual relationships between local and regional traffic dynamics and the resulting social impacts.

research report

Drivers’ Responses to Eco-driving Applications: Effects on Fuel Consumption and Driving Safety

Abstract

Onboard eco-driving systems provide drivers with real-time information about their driving behavior and road conditions, encouraging them to optimize their driving speed and consequently reduce fuel consumption and emissions. However, there are barriers to making eco-driving a habit. To determine the elements that influence drivers’ intentions to practice eco-driving and their acceptance of eco-driving technology, the research team developed a theoretical model based on established theories on planned behavior, technology acceptance, and personal goals. The findings showed that drivers’ intention to practice eco-driving has an indirect effect on their intention to use the system via the factor of perceived ease of use. The research team also explored how cognitive distraction while using an eco-driving system can be a potential barrier to acceptance. The intent is to put forward a solution to improve drivers’ usage of eco-driving by turning off guidance when the system detects that the driver is experiencing serious distraction. To investigate how to detect a driver’s cognitive distraction status when they are interacting with an eco-driving system, this project used a driving simulator and leveraged machine learning algorithms to classify drivers’ attentional states. The findings showed that the glance features played a more important role than the driving features in cognitive distraction.

policy brief

Machine Learning Can Reveal Effectiveness of Traffic Safety Countermeasures

Publication Date

September 3, 2025

Author(s)

Jia Li, Yanlin Qi, Michael Zhang

Abstract

Emerging machine learning capabilities can be leveraged to make transportation infrastructure safer and reduce fatalities by informing decisions about which countermeasures to apply at crash-prone locations. At this time, project prioritization typically involves assessing effectiveness, cost-benefit ratios, and available funding. Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) play an essential role in project assessment by predicting the effectiveness of safety countermeasures. Their applicability has limitations, however. Some of these may be overcome with innovative approaches such as knowledge-mining. The US Department of Transportation’s (DOT) CMF Clearinghouse provides practitioners with a list of reliable CMFs developed from individual studies. However, available CMFs do not cover all potential scenarios-of-interest to State DOTs because unique projects may feature novel infrastructure types or countermeasures. Experimental or observational studies are the dominant tools for estimating CMFs. However, these approaches may require years of effort to collect adequate crash data. To address these challenges, the research team developed a machine learning framework that mines CMF Clearinghouse data to uncover previously unidentified relationships. This provides a cost-effective and time-efficient solution to assessing CMFs not covered by the CMF Clearinghouse. The study proposed framework fully explores existing CMF data. The research team extensively trained and tested the proposed approach on CMF Clearinghouse data with experiments and showed that the framework can predict CMFs with reasonable accuracy. The framework flexibly incorporates heterogeneous data from the CMF Clearinghouse, captures the semantic contexts of countermeasures, and maintains data compatibility.

policy brief

Navigating the road to 100% zero emission vehicle sales: policy and research needs

Abstract

More than 30 countries and several states and provinces (e.g., California, British Columbia) intend to reach 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by between 2025 and 2040. In 2024, 22% of global vehicle sales were plug-in electric vehicles (PEV), some large auto markets reached 10-30% in PEV sales, and some Nordic nations achieved sales of between 30% and 90%. Little research focuses specifically on challenges in reaching 100% ZEV sales. This policy brief is based on a literature review of the growing body of research on PEVs. The review focuses on understanding challenges in reaching 100% PEV sales and identifies current research questions on issues related to 100% PEV adoption.

policy brief

Women Have Smaller Activity Spaces Than Men, Especially in Households with Children

Publication Date

September 3, 2025

Author(s)

Fariba Siddiq, Zhiyuan Yao, Evelyn Blumenberg

Abstract

Differences in how men and women travel have long been a focus in transportation research. Many studies have explored how socially-defined gender roles influence travel decisions and behaviors, consistently highlighting disparities between men’s and women’s travel patterns. For example, compared to men, women tend to make more caregiving and household-related trips, have shorter commutes, and are more likely to combine multiple destinations or purposes into a single tour. This body of research often concentrates on standard measures of travel—such as the number of trips taken, how far and for how long people travel, and travelers’ experiences— while also considering the influence of neighborhood design. However, travel patterns also are shaped by broader social structures and inequalities, which are not captured by these traditional measures. To better understand sex differences in travel, this study examined disparities in the size of an individual’s “activity spaces,” defined as the geographic area a person covers during daily activities, such as commuting, shopping, socializing, and leisure. The study draws on detailed trip data from the confidential California add-on to the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), which provides the exact starting and ending locations for each trip taken on the survey day. The study estimates the size of each person’s activity space and compare patterns between men and women. It then explore how these differences relate to individual, household, and neighborhood characteristics.

research report

What Explains Trends in Orange County Transportation Authority Bus Ridership?

Abstract

This report investigates whether the implementation in 2015 of California Assembly Bill 60 (AB 60) which requires the California Department of Motor Vehicles to issue a driver’s license to applicants who can prove California residency even if they are not legal US residents was responsible for subsequent declines in Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) bus ridership. Changing socioeconomic conditions, poor connectivity, poor service quality, and increased competition from TNCs are possible reasons behind this negative trend. Another potential cause is the implementation in 2015 of AB 60. In this context, this study examines the association between changes in OCTA bus ridership and the inception of AB 60 while controlling for differences in transit supply, socioeconomic variables, gas prices, multi-family rent, and single-family home value. To explain changes in monthly average weekday ridership, we estimated four route-level fixed-effect panel regression models different types of bus service. We analyzed ridership data for 2014 (just before AB 60) and 2015-2016 (the first two years after AB 60) for local, community, express, and station link routes. For local and community routes, we find decreases in the monthly OCTA bus ridership coefficients. For local routes, they range from a low of 1.7% in the Winter to a high of 7.7% in the Fall of 2015-16 compared to 2014. To counter this slide in ridership, OCTA may consider adjusting its service, increasing service frequency on selected routes, and exploring free or discounted pass programs.

policy brief

Charging Ahead: How Income and Home Access Shape Electric Vehicle Adoption among Ridehailing Drivers

Abstract

Transportation network companies (TNCs), also known as ridehailing, such as Uber and Lyft, have contributed to increased vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and associated emissions in California’s urban areas over the past decade. In response, Senate Bill (SB) 1014 – the Clean Miles Standard – requires TNCs to achieve 90% electric vehicle (EV) miles traveled and zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per passenger mile by 2030. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) oversee implementation and enforcement of these targets.

To understand the barriers and preferences for EV adoption among TNC drivers, the research team used a mixed-methods approach that integrates qualitative and quantitative data. This included 10 expert interviews, 8 driver group discussions, and a statewide survey of 436 full- and part-time TNC drivers conducted between May 2023 and April 2024. The survey gathered detailed information on drivers’ socio-demographic profiles, attitudes toward EVs, driving behaviors, and policy preferences, such as charging credits (i.e., a monetary incentive or prepaid allowance to offset the cost of EV charging activities and EV charging equipment) and EV purchase discounts (i.e., price reductions or instant rebates at the point of sale). In addition, the survey presented hypothetical decision-making scenarios to explore how factors such as income level, home charging access, and prior EV experience influence a TNC driver’s willingness to acquire an EV. Using statistical analysis, we estimated the most influential factors for EV adoption for full-time as well as part-time drivers. Then a “what-if” simulation was ran to explore how different combinations of incentives and driver characteristics might change the appeal of EV adoption.

policy brief

Uncovering Traffic Emissions: Converging Direct Measurements and Mobility Science

Abstract

Despite the years of climate change mitigation effort, per capita transportation emissions are on the rise. Reducing vehicle miles traveled, congestion mitigation and increasing vehicle efficiency are three strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from vehicles. Outcomes of these strategies may contradict each other considering their impacts on the road network and possible behavior changes within the transportation system. Though, models used in policy evaluations do not capture the interplay between vehicle characteristics, travel demand, and urban form. Understanding the spatial and temporal variations in vehicular emissions and the impact of each subsector requires collaboration between two seemingly separate fields: emissions modeling and urban science. This research combines state-of-the art methods from urban science and atmospheric chemistry to develop a Mobile Data Emission System (MODES), which is a portable framework for making fine grained vehicle emissions estimates using a large sample of mobile phone data for the Bay Area, Location Based Service Data from SafeGraph, and Uber Movement Speeds data. The MODES results were validated with two different sensor-based emission estimates, including the direct CO2 measurements of the Berkeley Air quality and CO2 Network (BEACO2N).

policy brief

Shifting a Portion of Plug-In Electric Vehicle Travel Patterns Could Significantly Cut Peak Power Demand

Abstract

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are among the most promising strategies for reducing transportation-related emissions and mitigating their impacts on both the environment and public health. Historically, PEV adoption has been slowed by three key barriers: range anxiety, limited charger availability, and high purchase costs. Recent advances — including improvements in battery technology, tax incentives, and subsidized charging programs — have begun to ease these challenges, leading to steadily increasing adoption rates. Planning for the mobility needs of PEVs is particularly important due to the vulnerability of the power grid to outages that can cascade drastically. Yet a common limitation in current PEV analyses is their narrow focus on mobility patterns, often restricted to estimating simple variables like arrival or departure times. Few studies have incorporated individual mobility needs at a metropolitan scale into planning for electricity demand management. To address this gap, this study simulated daily travel patterns for the entire Bay Area population using TimeGeo, a mobile phone-based urban mobility model. TimeGeo identifies home, work, and other activity locations for individuals based on the timing and frequency of their phone calls. These data can be used to simulate the travel behavior of PEV owners, combined with vehicle usage rates drawn from U.S. Census data and the California Plug-in Electric Vehicle Driver Survey.

policy brief

Enhancing Equity in the Plug-in Electric Vehicle Transition: Lessons from Rural California Electric Vehicle Owners

Abstract

In California, 38% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from the transport sector, and 27% of these transport emissions come from passenger vehicles. To reach carbon neutrality by 2045, as directed under Executive Order B 55 18, electrification of passenger vehicles is required. To facilitate an equitable transition to electric vehicle technologies, policymakers must account for the diverse needs and challenges faced by residents in rural communities. Rural areas often have greater travel distances and a reliance on passenger vehicles, due to a lack of alternative modes. While rural areas account for only 7% of the state’s population, California policy decisions can be far reaching and serve as guidance for other states with higher rural populations. To better understand the unique barriers and opportunities for rural electric vehicle adoption, the research team conducted in-depth interviews with 35 rural owners of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) across six counties in California. A PEV is an electric vehicle with a plug: either a battery electric vehicle (BEV) or a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). The study explored the owners’ travel behaviors, charging experiences, and motivations for PEV purchase. By centering on the experiences of current rural PEV users, the research offers insights into how infrastructure development, policy incentives, and outreach strategies can be better tailored to support equitable PEV adoption in rural communities