presentation

Used Electric Vehicle Market Study

policy brief

Connected and Automated Vehicle Technology is Not Enough; it Must also be Collaborative

Abstract

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) willrevolutionize the way we travel; however, what impact this revolution will have on advancing broader societal goals is uncertain. To date, the private sector technology rollout has emphasized the automation side of CAVs and neglected the potentially transformative possibilities brought by a more collaborative notion of connectivity. This may have significant downsides from a broader societal perspective. For example, CAVs (including those on the road today) collect a vast amount of data gathered through onboard systems (e.g., radar, lidar, camera), however, this data is not typically shared with other vehicles, roadside infrastructure, or public transportation agencies. This lack of collaboration will likely make traffic worse and forfeit the opportunity to manage traffic at the systems-level, which is where significant gains can be made in terms of improving traffic flow and safety, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and vehicle energy use, and more.

published journal article

A Systematic Review of Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Intensity Values for Hydrogen Production Pathways

Abstract

Hydrogen is a potential low-carbon energy carrier to replace fossil fuels, especially in industrial and transportation applications where decarbonization is particularly challenging. Hydrogen can be generated via several feedstocks and technology combinations (pathways) that result in different life cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensities, thus policies and investments intended to deploy hydrogen as a climate solution must differentiate among pathways. To collect and analyze current estimates of the life cycle greenhouse gas intensity of hydrogen pathways, a systematic scholarly literature review was conducted capturing articles published between 2018 and 2022.

The review yielded 85 studies with 492 reported greenhouse gas intensity values. Steam reforming, fossil fuel gasification, biomass gasification, and water electrolysis were the most common pathways. Analysis of the reported intensity values shows large variability among pathways due to the choice of feedstock, energy sources used, and conversion method. However, estimates within pathways also show significant variability, in some cases driven by real-world spatiotemporal or system design differences, but also arising from life cycle assessment practitioner choices regarding methods and data sources.

Despite significant variability, clear differences between hydrogen pathways can be observed. The lowest intensity pathways (∼20 gCO2e/MJ H2) correspond to those using low carbon or renewable energy. Steam methane reforming, the most common pathway, shows high emissions at nearly 110 gCO2e/MJ H2. Other promoted alternatives like electrolysis with carbon-intensive grid electricity can have even higher emissions, highlighting the need to assess pathways individually, considering feedstock, energy source, and conversion technology.

research report

Effectiveness of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Avert the Second COVID-19 Surge in Los Angeles County: A Simulation Study

Publication Date

August 1, 2023

Author(s)

Abigail Horn, Caroline Rodier, Ihab Kaddoura, Sebastian Muller, Yunwan Zhang

Abstract

This study used a simulation to examine nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that could have been implemented early in a COVID-19 surge to avoid a large wave of infections, deaths, and an overwhelmed hospital system. The authors integrated a dynamic agent-based travel model with an infection dynamic model. Both models were developed with and calibrated to local data from Los Angeles County (LAC), resulting in a synthetic population of 10 million agents with detailed socio-economic and activity-based characteristics representative of the County’s population. The study focused on the time of the second wave of COVID-19 in LAC (November 1, 2020, to February 10, 2021), before vaccines were introduced. The model accounted for mandated and self-imposed interventions at the time, by incorporating mobile device data providing observed reductions in activity patterns from pre-pandemic norm, and it represented multiple employment categories with literature-informed contact distributions. The combination of NPIs—such as masks, antigen testing, and reduced contact intensity—was the most effective, among the least restrictive, means to reduce infections. The findings may be relevant to public health policy interventions in the community and at the workplace. The study demonstrates that investments in activity-based travel models, including detailed individual-level socio-demographic characteristics and activity behaviors, can facilitate the evaluation of NPIs to reduce infectious disease epidemics, including COVID-19. The framework developed is generalizable across SARS-COV-2 variants, or even other viral infections, with minimal modifications to the modeling infrastructure.

research report

Streamlining Connected Automated Vehicle Test Data Collection and Evaluation in the Hardware-in-the-Loop Environment

Abstract

Quality data collection, processing, and analysis are foundational to good research, policy-making, and regulation development. With the rapid development of Connected Automated Vehicles (CAV) technologies, it is urgent for both researchers and policy makers to obtain and evaluate good quality CAV data to better understand CAV impacts. CAV hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) tests can expedite CAV performance evaluation and system implementation. This research aims at equipping an existing HIL test tool with data management functions. To this end, a database instance on MySQL has been integrated with an existing HIL test tool. The improved HIL test tool can greatly streamline CAV data collection and quality so that it is beneficial for performance analysis. A detailed comparison and selection of available database tools, database instance design, and implementation have been performed to help other California institutes develop and improve their own systems. A user-friendly test tool setup guide and a specific user guide have been provided to enable potential users to easily get started using the data management functions. In addition, two example CAV tests are presented to demonstrate the detailed data collection and performance evaluation procedure. Those examples can serve as a guide to assist users in applying the HIL test tool in their own CAV tests.

published journal article

Meta-analysis of shared micromobility ridership determinants

Abstract

Shared micromobility (SμM)—shared e-scooters and (e-)bikes—offer moderate-speed, space-efficient, and carbon-light mobility, promoting environmental sustainability and healthy travel. SμM benefits and SμM data availability have fueled a growing literature that analyses SμM ridership. We present a meta-analysis of 29 studies that estimate statistical models of zone- or station-based SμM trip counts, including 22 that examine station-based bikeshare systems. The meta-analysis reveals positive elasticities between SμM usage and population density (median elasticity of 0.16), employment density (0.07), median household income (0.33), bus stops (0.12), metro stations (0.17), bike infrastructure (0.09), and nearby station capacity (0.32). In contrast, station elevation has a negative elasticity. These magnitudes can inform SμM providers and transportation planners seeking to plan/design SμM systems to promote environmentally sustainable travel. Additionally, we critique the existing literature’s failure to (i) capture spatial dependencies, and (ii) discuss the practical implications of model parameters. Finally, we identify themes for future research.

research report

Assessing the Total Cost of Ownership of Electric Vehicles among California Households

Publication Date

April 1, 2024

Author(s)

Gil Tal, Debapriya Chakrabortys, Theodora Konstantinou, Julia Beatriz Guiterrez Lopez

Abstract

The primary metric for measuring electric vehicle (EV) adoption growth is new car sales. However, to enable mass market penetration, EV adoption in the used car market will play a crucial role. The used vehicle market is relatively under-studied or has been studied mostly for specific regions. This project analyzed US national consumer expenditure survey data that tracks households’ expenditure on vehicle acquisition and operation. The study aims to understand new versus used vehicle choice behavior and the consequent cost of vehicle ownership, with the larger aim of determining how much households who generally buy used vehicles can gain or lose if they transition from a used internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) to a used EV. A choice model and cluster analysis showed that ownership of used vehicles is influenced by family size, income, housing tenure, and age. For lower-income renters, current vehicle ownership and purchase costs tend to constitute a high fraction of their household income, raising concerns related to equity and suggesting that these households in particular should be considered in policies to encourage the EV transition. Moreover, while at present the average price paid for a used internal combustion engine vehicle is approximately $18,000, the price of a comparable used EV can range between $14,000 (e.g., lower electric range Nissan Leaf) to $50,000 (high-range Tesla), suggesting the need for incentives to encourage the used EV market.

white paper

Aviation Fuels – Exploring Low Carbon Options Under Current Policy

Abstract

This paper reviews the literature on technological, market, and policy factors affecting the growth of alternative aviation fuels. At present, they represent a minimal fraction of global aviation fuel used but are a critical tool for lowering greenhouse gas emissions from aviation. Even with electric and hydrogen power, substantial volumes of low-carbon liquid fuels are likely needed; these will draw heavily on biomass. Beyond hydroprocessed esters and fatty acid (HEFA) fuels, technologies, including lower carbon e-fuels, remain pre-commercial. More jurisdictions are providing incentives for alternative aviation fuel, and some on-road biofuels may be redirected towards aviation in a favorable market because production processes for these fuels overlap. Biomass feedstocks at different demand levels need to be sourced and evaluated for unintended impacts. Research suggests alternative aviation fuels improve air quality impacts compared to conventional jet fuel. Key uncertainties in scaling alternative jet fuel remain, including ongoing concerns about land use change from biofuels, how to right-size incentives with no technology clearly dominant, what the long-term carbon budget is for aviation, and how to build fuel delivery infrastructure.