Rail Transit Ridership Changes in COVID-19: Lessons from Station Area Characteristics

Research Team: Daniel A. Rodríguez (lead), Susan Pike, Michael McNally, and Meiqing Li

UC Campus(es): UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UC Irvine

Problem Statement: Emerging evidence shows that rail transit ridership has recuperated unevenly—at different rates in different places—as California has emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. Stations that serve central business districts, for example, show slower gains in rail transit passengers compared to stations with mixed income residents and mixed uses in suburban locations. It is not yet clear what is causing this difference, but this disparity signals that post-COVID ridership will be different from what was observed in the past, and some station areas will likely need to develop strategies that account for this new reality.

Project Description: This study examines how various characteristics (e.g., land use, development density, the pedestrian environment) affect transit ridership pre- and post-COVID and how they differ across station types based on longitudinal data for 242 rail stations belonging to Bay Area Rapid Transit, San Diego Metropolitan Transit System, Sacramento Regional Transit, and LA Metro between 2019 and 2021. Key findings include an overall 72% decrease in station-level ridership, but changes were not uniform. Station areas with a higher number of low-income workers and more retail or entertainment jobs tend to have lower ridership declines, while areas with a large number of high-income workers, high-wage jobs, and higher job accessibility by transit had more ridership losses.

Status: Completed

Budget: $60,000