Changes in Traffic Patterns and Localized Air Quality in Southern California

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

June 17, 2020 - December 1, 2021

Principal Investigator

Shams Tanvir

Project Summary

This project will develop an integrated analytical framework to determine changes in traffic at various scales (local, corridor level, and regional) due to the COVID-19 sheltering-in-place orders measures and conduct an analysis of the relationship of traffic-related changes to critical air pollutant concentrations. Traffic data and air quality data will be used from various existing sources, along with satellite-based measurements to complement the land-based measurements. The research team will estimate spatial-temporal changes in emissions for several traffic-related pollutants (e.g., NOX, CO, CO2, and HC). The team will then conduct a map-based relationship analysis between localized air-quality monitoring data and the estimated emissions. Finally, the team will overlay the map on CalEnviroScreen maps and correlate the changes with geographic locations of disadvantaged communities.

Autonomicity: A Modeling Framework for Equitable Policy Analysis for Future Transportation

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

September 1, 2020 - August 30, 2021

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Irvine

Project Summary

An agent‐based simulation platform (“Autonomicity”) has been under development at UCI with SB‐1 funds. This platform has the necessary modules with proper state‐of‐the art routing, ride‐matching, pricing and other algorithmic components, as well as the real‐time communication among them. While the platform itself is not network‐specific, future mobility requires a study context, and a network in the city of Irvine, CA, is currently incorporated. This proposal is to develop the platform as a policy tool to study efficient and equitable/fair allocation of transportation supply, with methodological focus on congestion pricing under traveler heterogeneity. Current congestion pricing schemes may cause social barriers for low‐income populations. Thus, this project devises a smart mobility platform to study equitable options where travelers desiring a faster travel option pay for it, and travelers willing to yield his/her fastest option receive incentives. New behavioral paradigms such as envy‐theory will be used. Two main modules introduced in Autonomicity will be: 1) a pricing module to find the optimal tolls/incentives and 2) a dynamic traffic assignment module to find optimal systemwide traffic patterns. The research will result utilities for a user‐friendly decision‐support tool for policymakers.

Identifying Types of Telecommuters based on Daily Travel and Activity Patterns

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2020 - August 30, 2021

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Irvine

Project Summary

With the recent advent of telecommunications and information technologies, telecommuting becomes a rising trend as one of the most important alternative work arrangements. Moreover, due to the current worldwide outbreak of the COVID-19 disease, this choice has turned out to be a more vital one than ever. It is, therefore, crucial to identify the potential groups of workers who are more likely to be the telecommuters and to understand how the telecommuters schedule their daily activities and travel. The goal of this research is to address these issues. In particular, the team will perform the following three tasks: (1) identification of a number of distinct groups of telecommuters with a representative activity-travel pattern and a similar degree of telecommuting adoption (2) finding out similarities and differences in activity-travel behavior between national-level and regional-level (California) telecommuters and between commuters and telecommuters, and (3) investigation of impacts of telecommuting on individual’s time-use and tour behavior as well as the overall transportation system. Two large household travel survey datasets—2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) and 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) will be used to conduct necessary analysis. This research is expected to provide valuable insights to policy makers on various telecommuter groups and their activity-travel patterns, adoption of telecommuting, and its impacts on travel.

COVID-19, Commuting, and E-Shopping: Understanding Current and Future Impacts in California

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2020 - August 30, 2021

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Lu Xu

Project Summary

With widespread business closures and stay-at-home restrictions due to COVID-19, commuting has dropped while telecommuting and e-commerce have soared. This joint UC Berkeley/UC Irvine project seeks to understand opportunities and potential impacts of COVID-19 on commuting and e-commerce. The research team proposes a mixed-method approach comprised of expert interviews, focus groups in Northern and Southern California, an online survey of Californians (n=~1,000), and a survey of super commuters (n=up to 500). The survey of the California population will show how travelers have been affected by COVID-19 for commuting and shopping and provide vital information about mode shift, public transit use, and willingness to share transportation post COVID-19. Understanding how Californians work and shop is critical to informing a number of policies at various levels of government including: AB/SB 32 (California’s Climate Change Solutions Act); SB 375 (Smart Growth Strategies); SB 743 (Converting Level of Service to VMT metrics under the California Environmental Quality Act); and other local and state transportation demand management (TDM) and commute trip reduction laws, ordinances, and policies. The data collected on goods delivery behavior will also have widespread implications, such as recommending a new set of TDM policy strategies for retailers, freight/supply chains management, and other stakeholders.

Identifying Strategies to Preserve Transit-accessible Affordable Housing

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 19, 2020 - September 30, 2021

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Madeleine Parker

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley

Project Summary

California’s expiring affordable housing covenants pose a barrier to not only its affordable housing supply, but also its greenhouse gas reduction goals. Working with the Southern California Association of Governments, this study would address the following research questions to assist policymakers preserve the affordability of housing with expiring covenants, particularly near transit. First, which developments are important to prioritize, based on covenant expiry timing, public transit access, and other factors? Second, what strategies are most effective at preserving affordable housing with expiring covenants, and how might a regional entity best facilitate this process? Using datasets on affordability covenants, high-frequency transit access, job accessibility, and opportunity maps, this research will first determine the order in which developments should be targeted. By analyzing the developments that have been converted to market-rate in the past, the research team will identify the building, neighborhood, and market factors that best predict building conversion. Interviews with affordable housing intermediaries will help identify the optimum timing for outreach in order to prevent conversion. After a review of local and regional strategies to preserve affordable housing, this research will develop a framework for affordable housing preservation at the regional and local scales.

Measuring Changes in Air Quality from Reduced Travel in Response to COVID-19

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

May 1, 2020 - March 31, 2022

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

The major source of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) that produce ground-level ozone (O3) come from mobile sources. Model calculations and ambient measurements both suggest that major California cities are currently in a “NOx-limited” regime where decreasing NOx concentrations lead to higher O3 concentrations, making current emissions control programs counter-productive in the short term. Shifting traffic patterns associated with COVID-19 may have reduced NOx emissions from mobile sources by more than ~50% in densely populated urban areas in California. This “natural experiment” provides an opportunity to (i) test the ability of models to simulate O3 response to deep cuts to ambient NOx concentrations, (ii) more accurately predict the amount of NOx reduction needed to achieve O3 benefits, and (iii) improve confidence in the long-term benefits of emissions control plans. This project will collect air pollution measurements using a modular transportable smog chamber in urban locations adjacent to major freeways in the City of Sacramento and the City of Redlands both during and after COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. The project team will then use chemical transport models (CTMs) to predict O3 concentrations during the time period when COVID-19 shelter-in-place mandates have greatly reduced NOx emissions from mobile sources. Predictions will be compared to the actual air pollution measurements collected. The ability of the modeling systems to accurately predict ambient ozone concentrations in the presence of these large emissions perturbations will verify the completeness of the model chemical mechanism, the accuracy of the model emissions inventory, and the effectiveness of emissions control programs that seek to reduce O3 concentrations by reducing NOx emissions. The evaluated modeling systems will be used to predict how O3 concentrations respond to a range of NOx and volatile organic compounds emissions controls and predict how much further NOx emissions need to decrease in order to achieve O3 benefits and in what year those O3 benefits will start to appear.

Assessing Temporary and Long-Lasting Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Travel in California

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

May 1, 2020 - March 31, 2023

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Campus(es)

UC Davis

Project Summary

During the early months of the pandemic, stay-at-home orders and concerns about infection catalyzed a shift toward online activities, such as remote work and e-shopping, resulting in a significant decrease in conventional travel. However, as the effects of the pandemic diminished, the pandemic-induced online activities began to subside, and conventional travel started to rebound.

This project conducted four waves of mobility surveys in California between Spring 2020 and Fall 2023. Key findings from the analysis of these data reveal that remote work and a combination of remote work and physical commuting (i.e., hybrid work) emerge as an enduring outcome of the pandemic. Another key finding points to socio-demographic factors such as work status, income level, and work arrangements being associated with household vehicle ownership changes and individual vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In particular, an increase in commute frequency reduces the likelihood of vehicle shedding (i.e., getting rid of a vehicle), while amplifying the likelihood of vehicle acquisition. In the meantime, remote workers exhibit lower commuting VMT but higher non-commuting VMT compared to hybrid workers.

What travel modes do shared e-scooters displace? A review of recent research findings

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

July 1, 2020 - June 30, 2021

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Kailai Wang

Induced Travel Calculator Technical Assistance

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

April 1, 2020 - October 31, 2020

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Campus(es)

UC Davis

Carbon Neutrality Study 1: Driving California’s Transportation Emissions to Zero