Micromobility Trip Characteristics, Transit Connections, and COVID-19 Effects

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

July 1, 2020 - September 30, 2021

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

While micromobility services (e.g. bike share, e-bike share, e-scooter share) hold great potential for providing clean travel, estimating the effects of those services on vehicle miles traveled and reducing greenhouse gases is challenging. Government agencies are just beginning to discuss ways to incentivize micromobility services to achieve these goals. California has taken one step in this direction through the SB 1014 (2018) Clean Miles Standard and Incentive Program. With this law, The California Air Resources Board (CARB) wants to better understanding the characteristics of micromobility systems to help set regulations for Transportation Network Companies (TNC) to reduce emissions. We propose to help inform CARBs regulations by summarizing micromobility trip characteristics using an archive of “big data” from the General Bikeshare Feed Specification data (in 28 North American cities) pre-, during-, and post-COVID19, estimate micromobility mode substitution from existing survey data and a literature review, and estimate the effects of micromobility on transit ridership. The project results are expected to directly influence CARB’s regulations of TNCs, but will also be pertinent for future state and local incentives and regulations of micromobility services.

Identifying Strategies to Preserve Transit-accessible Affordable Housing

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

August 19, 2020 - September 30, 2021

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley

Project Summary

California’s expiring affordable housing covenants pose a barrier to not only its affordable housing supply, but also its greenhouse gas reduction goals. Working with the Southern California Association of Governments, this study would address the following research questions to assist policymakers preserve the affordability of housing with expiring covenants, particularly near transit. First, which developments are important to prioritize, based on covenant expiry timing, public transit access, and other factors? Second, what strategies are most effective at preserving affordable housing with expiring covenants, and how might a regional entity best facilitate this process? Using datasets on affordability covenants, high-frequency transit access, job accessibility, and opportunity maps, this research will first determine the order in which developments should be targeted. By analyzing the developments that have been converted to market-rate in the past, we will identify the building, neighborhood, and market factors that best predict building conversion. Interviews with affordable housing intermediaries will help identify the optimum timing for outreach in order to prevent conversion. After a review of local and regional strategies to preserve affordable housing, this research will develop a framework for affordable housing preservation at the regional and local scales.

Assessing Benefits from Shifting Passenger Travel from Air to High-Speed Rail in California

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

August 19, 2020 - August 18, 2021

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Kaijing Ding

Project Summary

We propose a Synthesis Study that will assess the economic benefits and impacts shifting air passenger traffic from air to rail. Our assessment will take account of recent technological, economical, political, social, and epidemiological developments. It will incorporate the latest thinking on the importance of resilience and adaptability in assessing and planning infrastructure, and emerging recognition of the need to incorporate uncertainty into analyses of long-term benefit. Finally, it will inventory HSR deployment experiences from around the world to find the claimed and realized benefits from shifting air traffic to rail, as well as the role of complementary policies to the HSR deployment itself in promoting this shift.

According to the 2015 Interregional Transportation Strategic Plan, California High-Speed Rail (HSR) is the highest transportation priority for the corridor between the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles. Many advocates view HSR as transformational and its benefits difficult to quantify, but consider reducing traffic demands on California’s roads and airports to be a major quantifiable benefit. The approaches to monetizing this benefit, while reasonable, is quite simplistic. We seek a more comprehensive analysis that captures a wider set of benefit mechanisms and places confidence bounds on the benefits from each mechanism.

Assessing Drivers’ Responses to Eco-driving Applications

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

August 19, 2020 - December 31, 2021

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley

Project Summary

Climate change in California could have a large impact on the state’s economy, natural, and public health. One strategy to reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector is eco-driving. With the advance of connected-vehicle technologies, dynamic eco-driving uses real-time vehicle-specific information to optimize the vehicle speed and reduce fuel consumption and emissions. However, the effectiveness of eco-driving is seriously compromised by two issues: drivers’ interactions with the in-vehicle displays and lack of compliance with the real-time guidance. For the eco-driving applications to be optimally utilized and widely adopted, such challenges must be properly addressed. In this project, we propose to explore the two issues through a driving simulator experiment. Two types of roadways will be investigated, including local roadway with signalized intersections, and freeway stop-and-go traffic. Two well-established connectivity-based eco-driving velocity planning algorithms will be experimentally evaluated. Through findings of this project, we expect to provide policy makers with (1) realistic estimations of benefits of eco-driving applications; (2) countermeasures for higher compliance rate; (3) guidelines for safer interface design; and (4) guidance regarding increasing public awareness and adoption of eco-driving technologies.

Measuring Changes in Air Quality from Reduced Travel in Response to COVID-19

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

May 1, 2020 - March 31, 2022

Principal Investigator

Project Summary

The major source of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) that produce ground-level ozone (O3) come from mobile sources. Model calculations and ambient measurements both suggest that major California cities are currently in a “NOx-limited” regime where decreasing NOx concentrations lead to higher O3 concentrations, making current emissions control programs counter-productive in the short term. Shifting traffic patterns associated with COVID-19 may have reduced NOx emissions from mobile sources by more than ~50% in densely populated urban areas in California. This “natural experiment” provides an opportunity to (i) test the ability of models to simulate O3 response to deep cuts to ambient NOx concentrations, (ii) more accurately predict the amount of NOx reduction needed to achieve O3 benefits, and (iii) improve confidence in the long-term benefits of emissions control plans. This project will collect air pollution measurements using a modular transportable smog chamber in urban locations adjacent to major freeways in the City of Sacramento and the City of Redlands both during and after COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. The project team will then use chemical transport models (CTMs) to predict O3 concentrations during the time period when COVID-19 shelter-in-place mandates have greatly reduced NOx emissions from mobile sources. Predictions will be compared to the actual air pollution measurements collected. The ability of the modeling systems to accurately predict ambient ozone concentrations in the presence of these large emissions perturbations will verify the completeness of the model chemical mechanism, the accuracy of the model emissions inventory, and the effectiveness of emissions control programs that seek to reduce O3 concentrations by reducing NOx emissions. The evaluated modeling systems will be used to predict how O3 concentrations respond to a range of NOx and volatile organic compounds emissions controls and predict how much further NOx emissions need to decrease in order to achieve O3 benefits and in what year those O3 benefits will start to appear.

Assessing Temporary and Long-Lasting Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Travel in California

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

May 1, 2020 - March 31, 2023

Principal Investigator

Project Team

Dillon Fitch-Polse, Yongsung Lee, Patricia Mokhtarian

Campus(es)

UC Davis

Project Summary

During the early months of the pandemic, stay-at-home orders and concerns about infection catalyzed a shift toward online activities, such as remote work and e-shopping, resulting in a significant decrease in conventional travel. However, as the effects of the pandemic diminished, the pandemic-induced online activities began to subside, and conventional travel started to rebound.

This project conducted four waves of mobility surveys in California between Spring 2020 and Fall 2023. Key findings from the analysis of these data reveal that remote work and a combination of remote work and physical commuting (i.e., hybrid work) emerge as an enduring outcome of the pandemic. Another key finding points to socio-demographic factors such as work status, income level, and work arrangements being associated with household vehicle ownership changes and individual vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In particular, an increase in commute frequency reduces the likelihood of vehicle shedding (i.e., getting rid of a vehicle), while amplifying the likelihood of vehicle acquisition. In the meantime, remote workers exhibit lower commuting VMT but higher non-commuting VMT compared to hybrid workers.

Induced Travel Calculator Technical Assistance

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

April 1, 2020 - October 31, 2020

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Davis

Carbon Neutrality Study 1: Driving California’s Transportation Emissions to Zero

Summary of Interviews with California Metropolitan Planning Organizations About Senate Bill 375 and the Sustainable Communities Strategies

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

- October 1, 2020

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley

Project Summary

In July and August of 2020, a research team of four graduate students from UC Berkeley’s Department of City and Regional Planning conducted interviews with directors and other high-level staff representing several of California’s metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to gather information on the achievements and challenges associated with the implementation of SB 375. Key takeaways from this effort include: 1) MPOs are not requesting additional authorities or oversight of local land use decisions; 2) MPOs use funding as “carrots” to incentivize local plans to align with regional goals, and many MPOs desire more discretionary funding and priority-specific funding; 3) some MPOs want to focus on greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies, such as telecommuting, active transportation, and technological advancement, in order to meet their GHG emission targets; 4) MPOs want the State to develop policies in ways that acknowledge distinct planning nuances and economic and geographic contexts across regions; 5) the process of developing and submitting regional plans to the State for review is staff-intensive and technically complex for MPOs, which takes away from the agencies’ capacity to focus on implementation and other work; 6) Senate Bill 375 has empowered MPOs to consider more deeply the relationship between land use and transportation; and 7) as a result of Senate Bill 375, there is now increased communication and engagement between the MPO and a broader set of stakeholders.