Project Summary
California’s strategy to reduce air pollution and GHG from transportation rests on three pillars: 1) technology and adoption mandates 2) cleaner fuels via the Low Carbon Fuel Standard; and 3) reduced vehicle miles traveled (VMT). These measures are supported directly by incentive programs and indirectly by a range of regional and local incentive efforts led by air quality management districts (AQMDs), metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), municipalities, and utilities. However, federal policy changes have upended California’s efforts to decarbonize transportation. Regulations from neighboring states also play a role. The resulting market reorganization may or may not lead to desired outcomes on energy, emissions, and economic, labor, and equity metrics. In this context, this project will review existing policies for transitioning medium/heavy-duty vehicles to ZE (zero-emission), examine the cost-effectiveness of California’s specific policies, analyze potential alternatives to keep California’s truck decarbonization momentum, and craft models (agent-based, optimization) capable of jointly assessing these policies in a behaviorally-representative spatial and temporal framework.
During the initial phase of this project, the team will build a rigorous technical and regulatory foundation to guide California’s freight transition. This includes producing semi-annual briefs for the legislature to provide timely updates on ZET technological advancements and evolving trade policies. During the first year of this project, the team will analyze individual policies that could foster the decarbonization of commercial vehicles in California, while using LBNL’s Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility (BEAM) framework to build an agent-based model for Southern California and to update a similar model for Northern California. During the second year of this project, the team will refine initial analyses and analyze bundles of proposed policies using LBNL’s BEAM models created or enhanced during year 1 to understand their effectiveness, quantify their impact on air quality in selected air basins, assess their health impacts, and their equity impacts on disadvantaged populations.
