policy brief

Autonomous Trucks at a Crossroads: What’s Next for California’s Economy and Workforce

Publication Date

March 1, 2026

Author(s)

Mollie Cohen D'Agostino

Abstract

California is considering whether to lift a decade-long ban on heavy-duty autonomous vehicles weighing more than 10,000 pounds. This decision comes at a time when the state’s goods-movement system faces mounting pressure to improve safety, address labor shortages, remain competitive, and meet climate and economic goals. To better understand these challenges, the research team synthesized existing academic research and conducted interviews with 18 experts across industry, labor, and government. A key takeaway from this analysis is that humans will play enduring roles in both traditional and emerging occupations in trucking. Policy choices can influence whether autonomous trucking brings about higher-quality jobs, more efficient commerce, and safer systems as opposed to fragmented industry oversight and job loss without retraining or re-employment.