policy brief

Are our Transit Systems Ready for Earthquakes?

Publication Date

June 1, 2024

Author(s)

Kenichi Soga, Bingyu Zhao, Tianyu Han, Louise Comfort, Kelly Tang

Areas of Expertise

Infrastructure Delivery, Operations, & Resilience Public Transit, Shared Mobility, & Active Transportation

Abstract

Located on the tectonic boundary with multiple active faults, the San Francisco Bay Area is highly vulnerable to earthquakes. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated a 72% probability of an earthquakewith a magnitude of 6.7 or greater striking the region within the next 30 years. Historical seismic events have demonstrated the profound impact earthquakes can have on transportation systems. During the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, the closure of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, a critical transit route for San Francisco commuters, left nearly 400,000 commutersand approximately 245,000 vehicles daily with limitedalternative routes.