Project Summary
California’s transition to electric vehicles depends on equitable access to charging infrastructure across all housing types. While residents of single-family homes have adopted home charging at scale, those living in multi-family housing (MFH) including apartments, condominiums, and townhouses, face persistent barriers such as limited electrical capacity, fragmented governance, and high installation costs. Existing equity tools do not adequately capture many lower- and moderate-income MFH residents who are excluded from current charging programs despite significant need. Policymakers lack robust tools to forecast where MFH chargers are likely to be installed, how quickly adoption may occur, and how policy interventions can close access gaps.
This project develops a two-stage forecasting framework to address that gap. The first stage uses a latent-class model to estimate the probability of charger adoption across MFH sites, incorporating building characteristics, neighborhood demographics, and governance frictions identified through stakeholder interviews. The second stage forecasts the number of chargers conditional on adoption, linking deployment intensity to property scale, parking availability, and local EV demand. These models are then applied to policy scenarios, such as increased rebates, streamlined permitting, and expanded technical assistance to estimate their impacts on total deployment and equity outcomes.
The project will deliver actionable tools including a research report, policy brief, and interactive GIS-based mapping platform, enabling agencies, utilities, and local governments to design programs that accelerate adoption while ensuring equitable access for underserved residents.
