Do Existing Policies Still Hold? Quantifying Enduring Post-COVID Travel Patterns and Calibrating Policies

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

January 1, 2026 - December 31, 2026

Principal Investigator

Campus(es)

UC Davis

Project Summary

The pandemic has caused lasting changes in when, where, and why people travel, affecting transportation policies built on pre-pandemic habits. This proposal explores the scale and structure of travel shifts after the pandemic. It evaluates whether California’s Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCS), targeted programs like Green Means Go, remain effective, and if SB 743 aligns with new travel behaviors. Utilizing LEHD LODES and Replica data, the project team analyzes origin-destination patterns by time-of-day, trip purpose, and residential choices across industries from 2019 to 2024.

The research uses term clusters (representing complete communities), where residents can live, work, and access daily needs within the same area. First, the team analyzes intra- and inter-cluster travel changes to determine whether travel has become localized or dispersed. Second, researchers examine whether the self-sufficient cluster model, where people can live, work, and recreate within the same area, is consistent across industries and income groups. Finally, the team evaluates if hybrid work patterns have changed job-housing balance and impacted the resilience of clusters targeted for infill and VMT reduction.

This study offers timely empirical insights to assist state policymakers (SACOG, SCAG) in revisiting policy assumptions, updating SB 375 implementation strategies, and identifying where local plans may need recalibration to meet California’s goals.