Modeling Gasoline Supply Risks Amid California’s Transition to Low Carbon Transportation

Status

In Progress

Project Timeline

October 1, 2025 - September 30, 2026

Principal Investigator

Colin Murphy

Project Team

Campus(es)

UC Berkeley, UC Davis

Project Summary

The closure of two major oil refineries threatens California’s gasoline supply, which is difficult to replace through imports. The California Energy Commission is urgently developing near- and long-term solutions to this crisis, but there is a lack of planning and modeling tools designed to work in markets subject to gasoline supply constraints. This project develops new modeling tools to represent gasoline supply constraints and proposed solutions and account for uncertainty and variability in fuel demand projections. Results will help policymakers manage risks while advancing climate and air quality goals.