Project Summary
Recent closure announcements by two oil refineries in California have put the state at risk of a gasoline supply crisis. While gasoline consumption has been gradually declining, these refineries represent about 20% of state gasoline supply and our unique energy system makes importing fuel difficult. The CA Energy Commission is urgently developing near- and long-term solutions to this crisis, but we lack planning and modeling tools designed to work in markets subject to gasoline supply constraints because no mature economy has faced them since the 1970’s oil crisis. This project will develop new modeling tools to represent gasoline supply constraints and proposed solutions and account for uncertainty and variability in fuel demand projections. It will integrate these new tools into existing energy transition models. Elected officials have indicated their highest priority is to prevent gasoline price spikes; environmental policies could be rolled back to achieve this goal. The tools we develop will allow a more rigorous evaluation of proposed solutions, to help guide policy and stabilize gasoline markets without slowing progress toward environmental and climate goals. This work will inform ongoing work taken on by a CEC-led workgroup, on which the PI of this project sits.
