Project Summary
The research reconsiders the mechanism that induces travel in the wake of road improvements. Conventional wisdom attributes the problem to heightened demand among long-time residents. They presumably respond to road investments by traveling more. But mounting evidence hints at a different mechanism: one in which the endogenous effects of economic activity and population are what induce the lion’s share of extra travel. We intend to settle the matter via statistical analysis of decades-long, spatially disaggregated data from across California. We expect to show as a result how some road investments spur jobs and population growth, which in turn induce travel. These are the investments that induce economic gains along with that travel. We further expect to show how certain other road improvements produce lasting mobility gains, by not affecting local economies and therefore inducing less travel.
If our conjecture is correct, the findings will rid professional practice of a fundamental misconception concerning induced travel. They will also set the stage for crafting smarter-growth policies in the future. Said policies would resolve present-day conflicts between statewide initiatives to curb travel and local policies to promote economic prosperity or lasting mobility gains.
