policy brief

A Case Study: Testing Wildfire Evacuation Strategies for Communities in Marin County, California

Publication Date

April 1, 2024

Author(s)

Kenichi Soga, Louise Comfort, Bingyu Zhao, Pengshun Li, Paola Lorusso

Areas of Expertise

Infrastructure Delivery, Operations, & Resilience

Abstract

Many small, resource-strapped communities located in areas vulnerable to wildfire don’t have resources to conduct dedicated evacuation studies and many do not consider the impact of background traffic (i.e., normal traffic rather than evacuating traffic) on evacuation. In response, the researchers explored the performance of several generalizable evacuation strategies with background traffic for representative communities in Marin County, including the Ross Valley, Woodacre Bowl, Tamalpais Valley, and an area near Highway 101 and Ignacio Boulevard in Novato (hereafter referred to as ‘Novato Neighborhood’). The strategies explored include vehicle reduction (i.e., evacuees share a vehicle), phased evacuation (i.e., evacuees in different zones have different departure times), and off-street parking (i.e., street parking is prohibited on a high-fire Red Flag Day to increase overall road capacity in the event of an evacuation). The researchers then tested each strategy using a wildfire-traffic simulation framework.